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The document analyzes the surging demand for critical minerals driven by the energy transition, the environmental impacts of mining, and the strategic trade policies developing countries can employ to add value to their mineral resources while ensuring climate resilience.

U.S. tariffs have created a mixed impact across Latin America, with Mexico and Central American countries facing the highest effective tariff rates due to their export profiles and reliance on the U.S. market. However, the authors argue that South American nations are more vulnerable to indirect spillovers from China, which is now the primary trading partner for most of the subregion. A slowdown in Chinese demand for minerals, metals, and energy products, driven by high U.S. tariffs on China, could depress regional growth and commodity prices if China fails to implement effective countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies.

The document details how illegal gold mining in the Brazilian Amazon is sustained by a complex network of corrupt politicians, logistics providers, and international smuggling routes for mercury and aviation fuel. It highlights a systemic failure of Brazilian regulatory agencies to coordinate efforts, leading to significant gold exports lacking proper documentation. The report also establishes strong links between illegal mining and other serious crimes, including drug trafficking by organizations like the First Capital Command (PCC), forced labor, and sexual exploitation. Geographically, the illicit activity extends across borders into Guyana, French Guiana, and Venezuela, with specific hotspots identified in Roraima, Rondônia, Pará, and Amapá states.

The document outlines how the shift to renewable energy creates socio-ecological risks through expanded critical mineral mining and the rise of oil and gas decommissioning. It highlights environmental degradation, such as water pollution in China and orphan wells in the US, and explains how these issues can escalate into regional conflicts or local violence, as seen in Papua New Guinea. The author argues that current approaches often separate human rights from environmental impacts and recommends integrating these perspectives, increasing data transparency on site locations and health impacts, and sharing decommissioning best practices between experienced and novice nations.

The document examines how wide-ranging tariffs, including those imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), increase the cost of essential materials like steel, aluminum, and copper, thereby raising prices for energy infrastructure and slowing the deployment of clean energy technologies. It highlights that while the administration seeks 'energy dominance,' these trade policies create investment uncertainty and risk ceding leadership in next-generation technologies—such as advanced nuclear, geothermal, and batteries—to competitors like China. The authors recommend replacing blunt tariffs with targeted, time-bound measures paired with robust industrial policy and strategic alliances to ensure long-term competitiveness.

The report outlines key elements of credible sovereign transition plans, focusing on science-based targets, investment and policy action plans, and governance and transparency measures. It emphasizes the role of green budgeting, the mobilization of private capital, and the importance of internationally interoperable taxonomies in reducing climate-related risks for sovereign bondholders.

The report argues that while Canada has a competitive advantage due to its clean electricity grids, the mining sector's emissions are rising as mines deepen and ore grades decline. It identifies three primary barriers to decarbonization: a lack of market demand for 'green' minerals, fragmented traceability infrastructure, and technological gaps in open-pit mining. The author proposes a policy toolkit including emission-intensity criteria for funding, support for R&D in emerging technologies like direct lithium extraction, and the maintenance of carbon pricing systems to incentivize the transition.

The report examines the integration of finance within National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) across 59 developing countries. It finds that while most NAPs include dedicated finance sections and rely heavily on international public funding, there is a significant gap in detailed costing and the mobilization of private-sector finance. The authors recommend that countries move toward more investment-oriented NAP documents, implement climate-resilient fiscal planning, and adopt tailored financing strategies—particularly for Least Developed Countries (LDCs)—to bridge the adaptation finance gap.

The document argues that while Africa holds approximately 30% of the world's critical mineral reserves, the surge in demand for green minerals risks exacerbating inequalities and environmental degradation without strong governance. It advocates for a transition from rigid to progressive taxation, the development of domestic value chains (such as battery and EV component manufacturing), and the strategic reinvestment of mineral rents into climate resilience initiatives and local community development to ensure a just transition.

The report proposes the minerals-energy-food (MEF) complex as an evolution of the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus. It argues that the WEF nexus fails to account for the global trade of commodities, the critical role of minerals in the energy transition, and the systemic power asymmetries between resource-rich low-income countries and wealthy consuming nations. The MEF complex integrates three commodity clusters (minerals, energy, food), three local mediating factors (water, land, labour), and five higher-order global factors (global governance, trade, supply chains, geopolitics, and climate change). Using examples from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Brazil, and Ukraine, the authors demonstrate how these components interact to create cascading risks and unequal exchange. The report concludes with a research and policy agenda focused on data transparency, risk ownership, governance mapping, and inclusive participation.

The 'Banking on Renewables' report critiques the current funding models of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), arguing that the rush to increase renewable energy capacity often leads to 'green extractivism' and human rights violations. It proposes three core criteria for public funding: financing a total transition to 100% renewables (excluding 'false solutions' like CCUS), ensuring democratic and decentralized energy systems, and centering people and the planet. Through case studies in India, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Indonesia, the report contrasts large-scale projects that displace communities with community-led initiatives that improve local livelihoods. It concludes with a ten-point action plan urging MDBs to increase grants over loans, adopt a strict renewable energy taxonomy, and mandate Free, Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC) for all projects.

The report assesses the restoration of 579 hectares of wetlands in Chile's Biobío region, finding that nature-based infrastructure (NBI) is economically viable across all modelled scenarios. With a maximum benefit-cost ratio of 1.30, the project is projected to generate up to USD 58.74 million in avoided flood damage and rental income loss, while providing significant social value through recreation and carbon storage.

The report highlights a critical gap in US trade data that obscures the extent of firm-level dependence on Chinese suppliers for battery minerals and components. While China dominates global production—controlling 70% of battery pack assembly and 91% of anode production—current US tracking relies on outdated Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) codes and allows firms to hide import partners. The authors recommend updating trade codes, enhancing intergovernmental data sharing, expanding reporting requirements for electric vehicle tax credits, and leading international efforts for trade code standardization to enable more nuanced policymaking and supply chain diversification.

The report details a multi-stakeholder event focused on enhancing drought resilience in the Americas. It covers the role of the UNCCD in global drought economics, WMO climate findings for Latin America and the Caribbean, the technical requirements for drought early warning systems (EWS), and case studies from the Southern Cone and the Yacyretá hydroelectric plant. The document emphasizes the need for science-policy integration, innovative financing models involving the private sector, and the use of science diplomacy to coordinate regional responses to climate-driven water scarcity.

The document details a multi-stakeholder event focused on drought resilience in the Americas, highlighting the critical role of Early Warning Systems (EWS) and the need for better integration between scientific research and public policy. It discusses global trends in drought frequency, regional climate impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean, and specific case studies such as the SISSA project in the Southern Cone and water management at the Yacyretá hydroelectric plant. The report emphasizes the importance of scientific diplomacy, innovative financing models involving the private sector, and the necessity of co-designing climate services with end-users to ensure sustainability and effectiveness.

The document analyzes the interdependencies between the EU, China, and Africa regarding critical raw materials (CRMs). While the EU seeks to reduce its reliance on China through initiatives like the Critical Raw Materials Act and the Global Gateway, the paper argues that complete decoupling is unfeasible due to China's dominance in midstream processing and the high costs of establishing independent European supply chains. It highlights that African nations, particularly the DRC and Zimbabwe, are increasingly pushing for local value addition and processing rather than mere extraction. The author proposes a trilateral cooperation model, using a hypothetical cobalt project in the DRC, where the EU provides technical training and financing, China provides refining technology and market access, and the DRC ensures resource ownership and local industrial development.

Mexico's electricity sector is highly dependent on US gas imports, with 54% of electricity generated using imported gas in 2024. The report argues that accelerating the transition to clean energy—specifically solar and wind—can enhance energy security and independence. Achieving a 45% clean generation target by 2030 would require 46 GW of new capacity, potentially reducing gas imports for power by 20% and saving $1.6 billion USD annually. Such a transition would also create over 434,000 direct jobs in construction and operation.

The IMO's new Net-Zero Framework is criticized as a 'defeat for the climate' because it replaces a universal carbon levy with a hybrid fuel standard and weak carbon pricing. The author contends that the scheme will only reduce emissions by about 10% by 2030—half of the IMO's own base target—and will generate insufficient revenue ($11-12 billion annually) to support the transition to zero-emission fuels, which requires $12-24 billion per year.

The document outlines a strategy for South Africa to develop its green hydrogen ecosystem by prioritizing trade-focused investments that deliver local benefits. It identifies critical hurdles, including inefficient ports and a lack of domestic electrolyser manufacturing, and proposes solutions such as 'green corridors' for marine fuels and regional certification standards. The brief emphasizes that social acceptance, particularly regarding water scarcity and community consultation, is essential for the sector's viability.

The report establishes a methodology for mapping superhot rock (SHR) geothermal resources globally, defining SHR as heat from subsurface formations exceeding 374°C. Using the LithoRef18 global reference model and a 'hydrothermal proxy' to account for non-steady-state heat flow, the study estimates the un-risked global resource. For depths of 4-8 km ('today's resource'), the estimated potential is 3,272 GWe (13,895 GWth). For depths of 8-12.5 km ('tomorrow's resource'), the potential increases to 59,930 GWe (245,581 GWth). The analysis identifies 125 countries with SHR potential, with significant resources in the US, China, Indonesia, and others. The report also analyzes flow rate uncertainties using a database of 33 petrothermal projects, determining a P50 flow rate of 55 l/s for its calculations.