Search Climate Insights Directory

The report examines the 2019 outlook for the African Union's Peace and Security Council, highlighting the potential return of major powers like South Africa and Ethiopia to the council. It critiques the slow implementation of AU reforms, specifically regarding financial self-sufficiency and the reduction of the AU Commission. The document details a volatile 2019 electoral calendar across 11+ countries and warns of escalating instability in Gabon, Cameroon, and the Sahel. Additionally, it discusses the progress of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the tensions surrounding AU-EU negotiations.

The document examines the shift in Africa's debt structure toward non-concessional and domestic loans, identifying drivers such as commodity price shocks and fiscal deficits. It assesses the debt-carrying capacity of various African nations using IMF and World Bank frameworks, noting that several countries are in debt distress or at high risk. The briefing details current coping mechanisms, including the issuance of long-term Eurobonds and novel financial products, and recommends enhancing domestic revenue mobilization, economic diversification, and the establishment of autonomous debt management offices.

The 'Life on the Frontline 2018' report presents findings from a global survey of 4,686 patrol rangers across 17 countries, highlighting critical gaps in health, safety, training, and equipment. The data reveals that rangers face excessive risks, including inadequate medical care, lack of communication devices, and exposure to infectious diseases like malaria, while often being underpaid and under-appreciated. The document argues for the professionalization of the ranger service through improved training curricula, guaranteed insurance, and better community relations to ensure the effective protection of global biodiversity.

The report finds that while armed conflict fatalities in Africa are generally declining, the continent remains vulnerable due to structural drivers including poverty, youth bulges, and poor governance. It notes a shift from rural armed conflict toward urban political protests and riots. The analysis identifies a core group of countries at the highest risk of armed conflict and argues that inclusive economic development and improved governance are the only long-term solutions for stability.

The report finds that while the number of state-based armed conflicts and total casualties declined in 2017, non-state conflicts increased significantly. Syria remained the deadliest conflict, and the Islamic State (IS) was involved in 31% of all conflicts. The authors note a long-term general decline in warfare since the 1950s, though they warn that internationalized intrastate conflicts and religious extremism continue to pose major threats to global peace.

The report examines the 2018 African Union Peace and Security Council elections, noting a shift toward regional consensus and a decline in the average governance and democracy scores of member states. It details institutional reform struggles led by President Paul Kagame, specifically the contested transformation of Nepad into a development agency. Additionally, it analyzes the need for sanctions in South Sudan, the political deadlock in Togo, and the challenges of state absence in the Central African Republic.

The document examines the pervasive impact of corruption on African youth, who are identified as both primary victims and increasingly as perpetrators. It highlights how corruption fuels instability, conflict, and migration, while arguing that current youth engagement in anti-corruption efforts is superficial. The brief recommends structural changes, including amending the AU Advisory Board on Corruption's membership and implementing access to information laws, to ensure youth are active partners in designing and driving anti-corruption initiatives.

The report provides an evaluation of corporate peacebuilding initiatives, arguing that most 'Business for Peace' (B4P) efforts have yielded few positive impacts and can sometimes exacerbate local conflicts. It presents seven key questions for firms to assess their impact on conflict environments, local definitions of peace, socio-economic structures, and supply chain links to conflict actors. The authors conclude that the most peace-positive strategy is often to avoid conflict regions entirely and that substantive progress requires binding, independently verified regulatory initiatives.

The document provides a mapping of children living in conflict settings, distinguishing between those in conflict-affected countries and those in 'conflict zones' (within 50km of fighting). In 2017, approximately 1.8 billion children lived in conflict-affected countries, while 420 million lived in conflict zones. Asia has the highest absolute number of affected children, but the Middle East has the highest proportion relative to its population. The report also notes a rise in the number of children in conflict zones since 2000 and discusses the severe impact of the denial of humanitarian access, particularly in South Sudan, Yemen, Syria, and the Central African Republic.

The report analyzes the longevity of President Idriss Déby's regime in Chad, highlighting his use of 'armed diplomacy' and military interventions in Mali, CAR, and against Boko Haram to secure international political capital and support from France and the US. It details a domestic system based on ethnic patronage, rigged elections, and repression, while warning that the lack of a clear succession plan, combined with a severe economic crisis driven by falling oil prices and corruption, threatens future stability.

The document analyzes the deteriorating relationship between the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the African Union (AU), specifically focusing on the politicization of the court through UN Security Council referrals in Sudan and Libya. It argues that the AU's preference for political stability and peace-building often clashes with the ICC's judicial mandate. To resolve this, the author suggests a shift toward 'positive complementarity' and the use of hybrid courts, citing the Extraordinary African Chambers (EAC) in Senegal as a successful model for bringing justice closer to victims and respecting state sovereignty while combating impunity.

The research paper examines the persistent issue of sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) perpetrated by UN peacekeepers, particularly in conflict-affected regions of Africa. It highlights how power imbalances and poverty drive transactional sex and notes that legal hurdles, such as Status of Force Agreements (SOFAs), often shield perpetrators from prosecution by leaving jurisdiction with home countries. The paper details the UN's response through Resolution 1325 and Resolution 2272, the latter of which empowers the Secretary-General to repatriate troops and requires member states to report on investigations. It concludes that while reforms under Secretary-General António Guterres provide an opportunity for improvement, success depends on sustained political will and balancing troop deployment needs with stringent vetting.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the African Union's (AU) use of mediation as a conflict-prevention tool. It analyzes the institutional gaps, the tension between formal and informal approaches, and the need for a more structured, long-term strategy to address the root causes of conflict in Africa.

The report examines the 'gathering storm clouds' of political and economic uncertainty in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) region. It argues that a combination of commodity price collapses, neo-patrimonial governance, and rapid population growth is creating a volatile environment. The analysis highlights a critical gap between population growth and the provision of basic services, alongside a history of 'pseudo-democratic' regimes that resist genuine political transition. The authors warn that without strategic diversification of economies and significant investment in human capital, the region's large youth population could become a catalyst for further instability and violence.

The document challenges the narrative that water scarcity directly causes violent conflict, asserting instead that the 'politics of water'—including corruption, marginalization, and poor state management—increases conflict risks. While Africa faces significant physical water stress, with 65% of the population experiencing occasional stress and 82% of the continent being arid or semi-arid, empirical research suggests that scarcity often leads to cooperation rather than violence. Conflict typically emerges when water is treated as a 'club good' distributed based on political weight or social networks rather than need. This is particularly evident in the disparity between urban and rural access, the prioritization of cash crops for irrigation, and the rise of informal service providers, such as gangs and militias, who exploit water needs for profit in weak states.

The report documents a general decline in open domestic ivory markets across Central Africa from 2007 to 2015, with trade shifting toward underground transactions and raw ivory exports to Asia, particularly China. While most cities saw a near total disappearance of displayed ivory, Kinshasa remained a significant hub. The decline is attributed to increased law enforcement, rising raw ivory prices driven by Asian demand, and crashing elephant populations. The report also highlights severe deficiencies in government stockpile management, with an estimated 56,497 kg of ivory leaking from state custody between 1990 and 2015.

The report argues that the UN Security Council has historically prioritised reactive conflict management and peacekeeping over prevention. It identifies significant hurdles to operationalising prevention, including a lack of unified definitions, budgetary discrepancies, and organisational fragmentation. The authors recommend establishing concrete implementation strategies, improving coordination between UN organs and the African Union, and shifting toward structural prevention that addresses the root causes of conflict.

The document assesses the financial links between natural resource extraction and violent extremism in Africa, finding that while the LRA relies heavily on ivory and the Janjaweed on gold, al-Shabaab primarily funds itself through charcoal taxation, and Boko Haram derives little to no revenue from resource extraction.

The document discusses the transition of the African Union Commission (AUC) leadership to Moussa Faki Mahamat. It emphasizes that the AU cannot return to 'business as usual' due to a volatile global political landscape and the urgent need for financial autonomy. A key focus is the implementation of a 0.2% levy on African imports to reduce reliance on international donors, aiming to provide $1.2 billion in overall revenue in 2017 and ensure peace operations are 25% self-funded. The text also highlights the necessity of institutional reforms proposed by President Paul Kagame and the need for the AU to address root causes of conflict and migration in countries such as Libya, Somalia, and Sudan.

The document examines the African Union's (AU) efforts to integrate youth into democratic governance, highlighting the African Governance Architecture-Youth Engagement Strategy (AGA-YES) and the African Youth Charter. It argues that despite these frameworks, young people remain largely alienated and marginalised, facing significant barriers such as unemployment and restrictive legislation. The brief details findings from 2016 regional consultations, noting that youth often lack knowledge of the AU human rights system and face systemic hurdles like prohibitive age requirements for political office. It recommends that member states domesticate AU shared values, repeal discriminatory laws, and move beyond tokenistic engagement to harness the potential of Africa's youth demographic.