Search Climate Insights Directory

As of September 30, 2022, the IAI had received 38% of its approved contributions for the 2022-2023 fiscal year. Total expenditures for the July-September period were $314,865, which is 10% lower than the budgeted $350,000. While salaries remained within budget, travel and training costs exceeded projections by 12.4% due to high ticket prices. Other categories, including equipment, operational costs, and dissemination, were under budget due to postponed purchases and improved resource management.

One year after COP26, progress on climate pledges is described as "mixed at best," with some advancements in renewable energy and net-zero targets countered by a resurgence in fossil fuel reliance due to the Russia-Ukraine war. While 24 countries updated their emissions targets and renewable capacity reached new heights, global fossil fuel subsidies nearly doubled in 2021. Financial commitments remain unmet, with developed nations still $17 billion short of the $100 billion annual goal for 2020. Efforts to curb methane and deforestation have seen expanded participation, but accountability for city-level net-zero pledges remains low due to a lack of reported emissions data.

World Weather Attribution (WWA) reports on its activities from October 2021 to October 2022, during which it published eight rapid analyses and several peer-reviewed papers. These studies examined the role of human-induced climate change in events such as heatwaves in India, Pakistan, and the UK, as well as flooding and droughts in various regions. The organization emphasizes that while climate change is a major driver for heatwaves, its role in other events like tropical cyclones can be less clear, often compounding with high levels of vulnerability to increase human impacts.

This report, prepared by the IAI Directorate for the Executive Council's fifty-fourth meeting, outlines the primary achievements and activities of the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research from 1 July 2022 to 11 October 2022. It details progress in science communication, capacity building, and strategic partnerships aimed at addressing global environmental change in the Americas.

The IAI Executive Directorate reports progress on science and capacity building between July and October 2022. Key activities include the 'Climate and Health Responder Course for Latin America', the publication of a compendium on climate impacts in LAC, and the expansion of the STeP fellowship program to 45 fellows across 8 countries. The IAI also coordinated participation in the UNGA77 Science Summit and the SRI2022 congress, while establishing a Steering Committee for a Center for Science Diplomacy.

The report evaluates the voluntary carbon offsetting practices of eight major European airlines, including easyJet, Ryanair, and Lufthansa. It finds that while some airlines like easyJet have high volumes of offsets, the overall quality of credits is often low due to a reliance on cheap forestry projects in developing countries. The study highlights a significant lack of transparency in reporting and warns that promoting 'carbon neutral' flying may encourage air traffic growth, contradicting the need for sector decarbonization through sustainable aviation fuels (SAF).

Projected emissions for the analysed major economies under current policies (36.2-41.8 GtCO2e by 2030) remain far above the 43% reduction from 2019 levels required by the Paris Agreement. While average per capita emissions are projected to decrease slightly from 9.6 tCO2e in 2015 to approximately 8.8-8.9 tCO2e by 2030, significant disparities exist, with emissions per capita expected to more than double in Türkiye and Viet Nam while halving in Australia, Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Only eleven countries are currently on track to meet their latest NDC targets, with Brazil and Indonesia moving off track due to increased land-use emission projections.

The proposal identifies a critical gap in Brazil's climate strategy where ocean-related projects are underrepresented despite the country's extensive coastline and the fact that 26.6% of its population lives in coastal zones. It argues that scientific knowledge is currently siloed and fails to reach policymakers and project designers. To address this, the project will leverage the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation's (MCTI) 'Science at Sea' program to create a science-based framework, engage stakeholders including the private sector, and develop a prioritized list of ocean-climate interventions. The ultimate goal is to produce at least one high-quality project concept note for submission to the Green Climate Fund, focusing on areas such as blue carbon, sea-level rise adaptation, and ocean-based renewable energy.

Climate Central's global analysis using the Climate Shift Index (CSI) found that 96% of the world's population—7.6 billion people—experienced daily temperatures made warmer by human-caused climate change between October 2021 and September 2022. The study identifies the strongest influences in regions near the equator and on small islands, with Lagos, Mexico City, and Singapore emerging as the highest hotspots of human exposure when accounting for urban population. The analysis also pinpointed peak continental CSI days, noting that these do not always coincide with major heat waves.

The report finds that public financial institutions are lagging behind private counterparts in setting credible climate targets. While some Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) show leadership, national and subnational development banks, as well as institutions in non-OECD countries, have very few Paris-aligned or net-zero commitments. Key barriers include a lack of government guidance and insufficient accountability mechanisms within global coalitions.

The 2022 Forest Declaration Assessment finds that no global indicator is currently on track to meet the 2030 goals of stopping forest loss and restoring 350 million hectares of landscape. While Tropical Asia is the only region on track to halt deforestation, global rates declined only modestly by 6.3% in 2021 compared to the 2018-20 baseline. The report highlights a critical funding gap, noting that annual mitigation finance for forests is less than 1% of the estimated USD 460 billion needed. It further identifies failures in the private sector to eliminate deforestation from agricultural supply chains by 2025 and notes that 50% of lands held by Indigenous Peoples and local communities remain legally unrecognized.

The 2022 Forest Declaration Assessment finds that no global indicator is currently on track to meet the 2030 targets for stopping forest loss and restoring 350 million hectares of ecosystems. While Tropical Asia is the only region on track to stop deforestation by 2030, global forest loss still exceeds gains, resulting in a net loss of 100 million hectares. The report highlights critical gaps in sustainable production, where commodity-driven tree cover loss decreased by only 6% in 2021, and in finance, where current annual funding of $2.3 billion is less than 1% of the estimated $460 billion needed. Governance remains a significant hurdle, with at least 50% of lands held by Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IPLCs) lacking legal recognition. The document calls for a shift from voluntary corporate actions to mandatory regulations, a 200-fold increase in forest funding, and the strengthening of land tenure rights for IPLCs.

The 2022 Forest Declaration Assessment finds that the world is not on track to meet its 2030 forest goals. While some regional progress exists, global deforestation rates decreased only modestly in 2021, and financial investments for forest protection remain less than 1% of the required annual amount. The report highlights a critical gap between ambitious government pledges and actual policy implementation, noting that voluntary corporate commitments have failed to significantly alter the trajectory of forest loss. It emphasizes the vital but underfunded role of Indigenous peoples and local communities in forest stewardship and calls for a radical transformation in economic flows, governance, and legal mandates to avoid catastrophic climate and biodiversity loss.

The 2022 Forest Declaration Assessment concludes that the world is not on track to meet its 2030 forest goals. While Tropical Asia is the only region currently on track to halt deforestation, global rates of forest loss and degradation remain too high, and financial investments are less than 1% of the required amount. The report highlights a gap between ambitious national goals and actual implementation, noting that voluntary corporate actions have been insufficient and that indigenous peoples and local communities remain severely underfunded despite their effectiveness as forest guardians.

The 2022 Forest Declaration Assessment finds that no global indicator is currently on track to meet the 2030 goals of halting forest loss and degradation or restoring 350 million hectares of landscape. While Tropical Asia is the only region on track to stop deforestation, global primary forest loss decreased by only 3.1% in humid tropics. Financial investment for forests is critically insufficient, with current mitigation funding at US$ 2.3 billion per year—less than 1% of the estimated US$ 460 billion needed annually. Corporate action to eliminate deforestation from agricultural supply chains by 2025 is lagging, and governance remains weak, with at least 50% of lands occupied by Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IPCs and LCs) lacking legal recognition.

The 2022 Forest Declaration Assessment finds that no global indicator is currently on track to meet the 2030 goals of halting forest loss and degradation or restoring 350 million hectares of forest landscape. While global deforestation rates declined by 6.3% in 2021 compared to the 2018-2020 baseline, this falls short of the 10% annual reduction required. Tropical Asia is the only region on track to halt deforestation by 2030, while Tropical Latin America and Africa remain off track. The report also notes that while 130.9 million hectares of tree cover were gained between 2000 and 2020, these were offset by 231.4 million hectares of loss, resulting in a net global loss of 100.5 million hectares.

The 2022 Forest Declaration Assessment finds that global forest governance is currently insufficient to meet 2030 targets. While some countries have successfully reduced deforestation through moratoria and strengthened enforcement, these gains are often fragile or being reversed by legislative rollbacks. The report highlights persistent tenure insecurity for Indigenous Peoples and local communities, widespread corruption in the timber trade, and significant gaps in the implementation of demand-side regulations in importing nations.

The 2022 Forest Declaration Assessment finds that no global indicator is currently on track to meet the 2030 goals of halting forest loss and restoring 350 million hectares of landscape. While Tropical Asia is on track to halt deforestation, other regions like Tropical Latin America and Africa are not. The report highlights a massive funding gap, with current mitigation finance at less than 1% of the estimated USD 460 billion annual need. It also notes that commodity-driven deforestation declined by 6% in 2021 but remains far from the trajectory needed for the 2025 private sector target. Governance remains a critical weakness, with persistent tenure insecurity for Indigenous Peoples and local communities and widespread corruption in the timber trade.

The 2022 Theme 2 Assessment of the Forest Declaration finds that the world is not on track to meet 2030 forest goals or 2025 zero-deforestation targets for agricultural supply chains. While commodity-driven tree cover loss declined by 6% in 2021 compared to 2018-20, rates remain higher than in any year before 2016. The report highlights a significant gap between government 'green growth' agendas and actual investment, noting that trillions of dollars are mobilized for infrastructure like the Belt and Road Initiative while global public investments in forest goals are only USD 2.3 billion per year. In the private sector, only a quarter of major agricultural companies have ambitious policies to eliminate deforestation, and less than 20% of companies disclosing to CDP report near full compliance. The extractives sector shows even lower transparency and a lack of explicit forest-focused policies. Grassroots resistance, led by Indigenous Peoples and local communities, has achieved some successes, such as a temporary moratorium on new concessions in Ecuador, but defenders face high rates of violence, with over 200 killed in 2021.

The report finds that global forest finance is not on track to meet 2030 goals, with current mitigation finance averaging USD 2.3 billion per year—less than 1 percent of the estimated USD 460 billion annual requirement. It highlights a stark imbalance where 'grey finance' (harmful investments) significantly outweighs 'green finance,' and notes that Indigenous Peoples and local communities remain severely underfunded. While 2021 pledges could quadruple annual finance to USD 9.5 billion, this remains insufficient. The report also analyzes the limited impact of voluntary and compliance carbon markets and the slow progress of REDD+ frameworks.