Search Climate Insights Directory

The Climate Strategies Research Prospectus 2009 details a comprehensive program of academic research designed to support government decision-makers. The work is organized into three primary themes: industrialised country commitments and global market mechanisms (including carbon leakage and emissions trading system linkages), global engagement, technology and finance (focusing on the UNFCCC's Reformed Financial Mechanism and technology innovation centres), and industry-specific sectoral approaches (specifically the steel and maritime sectors). The organization operates as a not-for-profit network, convening international experts to provide independent, fact-based assessments for policy formation, with a particular emphasis on the European Union, North America, and the Asia-Pacific region.

The document examines the transition from fragmented regional carbon markets to a global architecture, analyzing the risks of market manipulation, environmental integrity failures, and the technical challenges of linking different systems. It proposes a framework of institutional functions—ranging from decentralized cooperation to centralized oversight—to manage price volatility, ensure robust monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV), and regulate financial derivatives to prevent excessive speculation.

The document details a seminar on the restitution of cultural heritage, contrasting Austria's evolving legal framework for returning Nazi-looted art with the ongoing difficulties in recovering African artifacts and human remains from former colonial powers. It highlights the role of external pressure and legal action in achieving restitution and examines the complexities of identifying beneficiaries and culprits in colonial contexts.

The report assesses the potential for linking regional and national emissions trading systems (ETS) to create a broader carbon market. It concludes that while an OECD-wide company-level market by 2015 is highly ambitious, linking serves as a critical bottom-up fallback option to top-down international regimes. The study identifies significant barriers to full bilateral linking, including divergent monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) provisions, differing offset eligibility, and a lack of consensus on carbon price levels. However, it suggests that unilateral links to international offset mechanisms and indirect links via credits are more likely in the short term.

The report assesses the potential for linking emissions trading schemes (ETS) globally, concluding that an OECD-wide company-level carbon market by 2015 is a "highly ambitious goal." It identifies that while the EU ETS seeks to be a nucleus for a global market, most emerging schemes prioritize domestic price control over full bilateral linking. The study highlights significant barriers to linkage, including divergent target stringencies, the use of intensity-based targets (notably in Canada), and different cost-containment measures like price caps. It distinguishes between unilateral links (one-way recognition), bilateral/multilateral links (mutual recognition), and indirect links (via common mechanisms like the CDM). The report also examines the legal complexities of such links, particularly the constraints on US state-level agreements and the EU's regulatory mandates. It suggests that a "bottom-up" process of linking regional markets could serve as a fallback if top-down international agreements, such as a Kyoto successor, fail.

The report challenges the promotion of jatropha as a 'wonder crop' for biofuels, using evidence from Swaziland to argue that it may compete with food production, require significant water and chemical inputs, and offer marginal economic benefits to small-scale farmers. It highlights concerns over unfair contracting practices by D1 Oils and the lack of environmental risk assessments, concluding that jatropha is not a sustainable 'silver bullet' for meeting EU and UK biofuel targets.

The Bonn climate talks served as the first of six negotiating sessions in 2009 aimed at establishing a post-2012 climate regime. While the meetings produced no tangible results, they narrowed gaps between Parties on mitigation, adaptation, technology, and financing. Key tensions persist regarding the scale of emission reductions for developed countries, the role of the United States and China, and the governance of climate finance.

The document provides an overview of the Bonn climate talks, detailing progress and disputes across mitigation, adaptation, technology, and finance. It highlights the tension between 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' approaches to emission reductions and the critical role of the United States' renewed engagement ahead of the 2009 Copenhagen summit.

The report assesses the risk of earthquakes, floods, tropical cyclones, landslides, droughts, tsunamis, and civil conflict in the Asia-Pacific region. It employs a semi-quantitative approach to map hazard hotspots and estimate exposed populations, using the latter as a proxy for risk due to data limitations on mortality. The study introduces a 'coping capacity' index to evaluate national institutional ability to manage disasters. Key findings highlight that Bangladesh and the Philippines face the highest overall risk, while the region's high population density in hazard-prone areas exacerbates potential losses. The report also notes a strong correlation between natural disasters and armed conflict, suggesting that improving disaster preparedness can simultaneously mitigate conflict hazards by enhancing state service delivery in marginalized areas.

The report projects emissions for the EU, Japan, and other Annex I countries up to 2012 and 2020. It finds that while the EU ETS is likely to have a surplus of allowances up to 2012 at a price of €20/tCO2, the EU-15 and Japan will face overall deficits relative to their Kyoto targets. Conversely, Russia, Ukraine, and new EU member states are projected to have significant emission surpluses. Looking toward 2020, the EU ETS is expected to enter a deficit unless efficiency and renewables targets are met, suggesting a rise in carbon prices post-2012.

The document assesses the 2008 proposal for the Australian Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, focusing on its mechanisms for price control and international linking. It examines the implications of a domestic price cap and the potential for bilateral linking with the European Union and New Zealand, while analyzing the impact of 'hot air' units from Russia and Eastern Europe on the global carbon market.

The document examines the role of agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) in global GHG mitigation, highlighting the significant potential in developing countries and the technical and political barriers to their inclusion in UNFCCC agreements. It details the limitations of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and the ongoing discussions regarding REDD, while providing a specific analysis of Canada's domestic policies and international submissions regarding LULUCF accounting.

The document argues that while agriculture and forestry offer cost-effective and rapid opportunities for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, they have been fragmented and largely excluded from international policy frameworks. It highlights the significant potential for carbon sequestration in developing countries' soils and forests, while detailing technical barriers such as non-permanence, leakage, and accounting uncertainties. The briefing specifically discusses Canada's efforts to propose a 'Forward Looking Baseline' for forest management and its domestic regulatory approach to carbon offsets.

The document analyzes the role of agriculture in global GHG mitigation and adaptation, highlighting that while the sector has a technical mitigation potential of 5.5 to 6 GtCO2e per year by 2030, progress is hindered by accounting complexities and non-permanence of soil carbon. It details Canada's domestic offset experiences, such as Alberta's tillage protocol, and argues for expanding the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) or creating new market mechanisms for sustainable development (MMSDs) to engage developing countries, where 70% of agricultural mitigation potential resides.

The document provides a detailed review of the COP-14 proceedings in Poznań, Poland, focusing on the progress of two key working groups: the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA) and the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties (AWG-KP). While the conference succeeded in establishing a timeline for full negotiations in 2009 and operationalizing the Adaptation Fund, it failed to reach significant breakthroughs on global emission targets or the second review of the Kyoto Protocol. The report highlights the critical role of the United States and China in the upcoming Copenhagen negotiations and details specific technical discussions on REDD, the Clean Development Mechanism, and technology transfer.

The report argues that the Lake Winnipeg Basin is highly suitable for water quality trading (WQT) because agricultural nonpoint sources contribute between 59% and 97% of phosphorus loads in the Canadian portion of the basin. It proposes a multi-level architecture combining inter sub-basin trading (using a trading ratio model to meet overall lake targets) and intra sub-basin trading (using reverse auctions to incentivize best management practices). The authors suggest that the Canadian Environmental Protection Act and Canada Water Act provide the necessary regulatory basis, and recommend a composite market structure to minimize transaction costs.

The document describes an extension to the 'Embedded Carbon Emissions Indicator' project, specifically focusing on the uncertainty analysis of a UK-MRIO model. The study employs a Monte-Carlo analysis to determine error margins for direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions associated with UK economic activities and trade. The process involved reviewing standard deviations of constraints, estimating input-output (IO) table uncertainties from constraints and matrix balancing, and calculating error propagation for embedded emissions. The report notes that such a thorough uncertainty analysis is rare in environmental MRIO studies.

The Global Subsidies Initiative (GSI) presents a methodology for measuring irrigation subsidies by calculating the difference between the cost of making irrigation water available and the revenue received from beneficiaries. The framework focuses on 'full supply cost,' incorporating annual capital costs (interest and depreciation) and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, while excluding complex elements like opportunity costs and full social costs due to data constraints. It provides detailed guidance on allocating joint capital costs in multi-purpose projects using the Alternative Justifiable Expenditures (AJE) and Separate Costs, Remaining Benefits (SCRB) methods. The methodology also addresses specific subsidies such as discounted electricity for groundwater pumping and identifiable government expenditures on environmental externalities. Revenue components include water sales, hydropower, fishing rights, and pollution taxes.

The guide outlines a multi-level analysis framework to evaluate investment incentives, focusing on value for money, job quality, environmental protection, and policy transparency. It emphasizes the need for ex post assessments and the preservation of policy space for host governments to impose performance requirements on investors.

The document examines China's 'Going Global' strategy to secure natural resources, highlighting its focus on bauxite in the Mekong region. It details the roles of major Chinese firms like Chinalco and Chalco, the regulatory challenges in Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia, and the significant energy and environmental risks associated with aluminum smelting and mining, particularly the threat of red mud contamination in transboundary river basins.