Global Carbon Mechanisms Annex II: Emissions and demand projections to 2020

The report projects emissions for the EU, Japan, and other Annex I countries up to 2012 and 2020. It finds that while the EU ETS is likely to have a surplus of allowances up to 2012 at a price of €20/tCO2, the EU-15 and Japan will face overall deficits relative to their Kyoto targets. Conversely, Russia, Ukraine, and new EU member states are projected to have significant emission surpluses. Looking toward 2020, the EU ETS is expected to enter a deficit unless efficiency and renewables targets are met, suggesting a rise in carbon prices post-2012.

• At a carbon price of €20/tCO2, the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is projected to be below its cap up to 2012, which suggests that this price level is unsustainable and that there will be minimal overall demand for external project credits from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI).
• The EU-15 is projected to have an overall deficit relative to its Kyoto target, with estimated requirements for external credits ranging between 500 and 1,250 MtCO2e. Within this group, Germany, Spain, and Italy are identified as the countries requiring the largest inflows of credits.
• Japan is projected to have a total deficit relative to its Kyoto target in the range of 300-500 MtCO2e up to 2012.
• Significant emission surpluses are projected for former Eastern Bloc states: new EU member states are expected to have a surplus between 1,900 and 2,300 MtCO2e, Russia between 3,500 and 4,000 MtCO2e, and Ukraine between 2,000 and 2,300 MtCO2e.
• If Canada were to meet its international treaty obligations, its demand for external credits is estimated to be in the range of 500-600 Mt.
• Projections for 2020 indicate that the EU ETS will likely face a deficit at a price of €20/tCO2 if efficiency and renewables targets are not met, which implies that carbon prices will rise after 2012.

APA

Laing, T., Junankar, S., Pollitt, H., & Grubb, M. (2009). Global Carbon Mechanisms Annex II: Emissions and demand projections to 2020. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/gcm-technical-annex-ii-emissionsdemand-pojections-to-2020.pdf

Chicago

Laing, Tim, Sudhir Junankar, Hector Pollitt, and Michael Grubb. Global Carbon Mechanisms Annex II: Emissions and demand projections to 2020. Climate Strategies, 2009. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/gcm-technical-annex-ii-emissionsdemand-pojections-to-2020.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Laing |first1=Tim |last2=Junankar |first2=Sudhir |last3=Pollitt |first3=Hector |last4=Grubb |first4=Michael |title=Global Carbon Mechanisms Annex II: Emissions and demand projections to 2020 |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=6 March 2009 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/gcm-technical-annex-ii-emissionsdemand-pojections-to-2020.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{laing2009global, author = {Laing, Tim and Junankar, Sudhir and Pollitt, Hector and Grubb, Michael}, title = {{Global Carbon Mechanisms Annex II: Emissions and demand projections to 2020}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2009}, month = mar, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/gcm-technical-annex-ii-emissionsdemand-pojections-to-2020.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }