Uncertainty analysis UK MRIO model results: Monte Carlo analysis UK multi-region input-output model embedded carbon dioxide emissions indicator

This report describes a Monte-Carlo analysis conducted to quantify error margins and parameter uncertainty within a multi-region input-output (MRIO) model used to calculate carbon dioxide emissions embedded in UK trade flows.

• The report details an extension to the 'Embedded Carbon Emissions Indicator' project, specifically focusing on quantifying the error margins of a UK-MRIO model that calculates direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions associated with UK economic activities and trade flows.
• To test the sensitivity of the model system regarding parameter uncertainty, a Monte-Carlo analysis was performed. This process involved reviewing standard deviation estimates for constraints, estimating uncertainties from IO tables and matrix balancing, simulating multiplier uncertainties, and calculating error propagation for embedded emissions.
• The authors state that while Monte-Carlo analyses for database uncertainties are documented in literature, few economic or environment-economic studies implement them, and no other environmental MRIO study had previously conducted an uncertainty analysis of this thoroughness.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2009). Uncertainty analysis UK MRIO model results: Monte Carlo analysis UK multi-region input-output model embedded carbon dioxide emissions indicator. https://www.sei.org/publications/uncertainty-analysis-uk-mrio-model-results-monte-carlo-analysis-uk-multi-region-input-output-model-embedded-carbon-dioxide-emissions-indicator/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Uncertainty analysis UK MRIO model results: Monte Carlo analysis UK multi-region input-output model embedded carbon dioxide emissions indicator. 2009. https://www.sei.org/publications/uncertainty-analysis-uk-mrio-model-results-monte-carlo-analysis-uk-multi-region-input-output-model-embedded-carbon-dioxide-emissions-indicator/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Uncertainty analysis UK MRIO model results: Monte Carlo analysis UK multi-region input-output model embedded carbon dioxide emissions indicator |date=20 January 2009 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/uncertainty-analysis-uk-mrio-model-results-monte-carlo-analysis-uk-multi-region-input-output-model-embedded-carbon-dioxide-emissions-indicator/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2009uncertainty, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Uncertainty analysis UK MRIO model results: Monte Carlo analysis UK multi-region input-output model embedded carbon dioxide emissions indicator}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2009}, month = jan, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/uncertainty-analysis-uk-mrio-model-results-monte-carlo-analysis-uk-multi-region-input-output-model-embedded-carbon-dioxide-emissions-indicator/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }