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GETTING IT RIGHT IN A NEW OCEAN: BRINGING SUSTAINABLE BLUE ECONOMY PRINCIPLES TO THE ARCTIC REPORT 2018
The report examines the 'Blue Economy' of the Arctic, categorizing its resources into extractive, renewable, biological, connective, and experiential types. It highlights the immense investment potential—estimated up to US$1 trillion—and the accompanying risks of ecological collapse and social vulnerability. Through a SWOT analysis, the document identifies rapid climate change and a reliance on fossil fuel extraction as primary threats, while noting opportunities in the 'Blue Bio-Economy' and the potential to build sustainable infrastructure from the start. It concludes with six key recommendations for governments, investors, and Indigenous Peoples to ensure long-term ecosystem resilience and inclusive governance.
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Document type: Report
Integrating gender and social equality into sustainable development research
The document outlines how to apply a gender and social equality (GSE) lens to sustainable development research to uncover power relations and inequalities. It defines key concepts such as intersectionality, the distinction between sex and gender, and the role of social constructions in creating hierarchies. The guide provides a framework for analyzing norms, division of labour, resource access, and decision-making power, while offering specific methodological advice for defining research questions, collecting data from diverse social groups, and presenting results to ensure the voices of marginalized populations are represented.
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Document type: Guide
United States: Making Arctic Nation
The paper examines the evolution of US Arctic policy, noting a transition from a 'reluctant' actor to an active proponent of regional cooperation. Using frame analysis, it identifies a recurring focus on economic development and national competitiveness, while observing a shift in security perspectives from military-centric nation-building toward energy supply and climate change implications.
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Document type: Research paper
A Crack in the Shell
The report 'A Crack in the Shell' by the Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL) uses internal documents to demonstrate that Royal Dutch Shell had early and urgent notice of climate risks associated with fossil fuels. It highlights a dichotomy between Shell's internal scientific understanding—which acknowledged the link between CO2 and global warming as early as the 1950s and 60s—and its public efforts to sow doubt through industry groups like the Global Climate Coalition and the American Petroleum Institute. The document further argues that Shell continues this pattern by promoting the 'Sky Scenario' to appear aligned with the Paris Agreement while continuing to invest in fossil fuel expansion, including in the Arctic.
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Document type: Report
Winter in North America is cold Dec 2017-Jan 2018
The analysis finds that while the December 2017-January 2018 cold wave in the northeastern U.S. and southeastern Canada was not unprecedented in absolute terms, it is now a rare event due to global warming. Cold waves of this intensity have become approximately fifteen times less frequent over the last century, with temperatures of such events increasing by about 4ºF (2ºC). The study finds no evidence that Arctic warming has intensified these cold waves; instead, it suggests that Arctic air moving south is now less cold.
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Document type: Research paper
The Paris Agreement goes ahead, with or without Trump
The document asserts that the Paris Agreement is a universal and flexible framework essential for stabilizing global temperature increases below 2°C. It characterizes the U.S. decision to withdraw as an "historical mistake" that could increase future global temperature rises by up to 0.3°C and isolate the U.S. internationally. However, the authors note that a "domino effect" of other nations withdrawing has not occurred, as key players like China, the European Union, and India remain committed. The text highlights that the transition to clean energy is driven by economic opportunity, noting support from major U.S. companies, the divestment from coal by Blackrock, and the competitiveness of renewables, exemplified by subsidy-free auctions in Spain. Internal U.S. opposition is also noted, specifically from the governors of California, New York, and Washington.
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Document type: Statement
Arctic resilience assessment: synthesis for Arctic leaders 2017
The document synthesizes findings from the Arctic Resilience Report, emphasizing that while the drivers of Arctic change are largely external, building resilience requires internal action and an integrated understanding of social-environmental interactions. It warns of 19 identified instances where climate change and other drivers could trigger abrupt, irreversible shifts with significant implications for communities and global systems.
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Document type: Executive summary
10 key signs of climate change
The document outlines twelve key signs of climate change, including rising global, ocean, and soil temperatures, increasing ocean acidity, and rising sea levels. It attributes these phenomena to the buildup of heat-trapping gases caused by the burning of fossil fuels and the destruction of tropical forests. The text highlights specific regional impacts, such as the rapid warming of the Gulf of Maine and the thawing of permafrost in the Arctic, and notes the resulting increase in extreme weather events and shifts in species ranges.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Adaptation Futures 2016: Practices and Solutions
The Adaptation Futures 2016 conference, held in Rotterdam, convened over 1,700 experts to address the urgency of climate adaptation. The synthesis highlights a critical gap where risks are being created faster than they are reduced, calling for more radical and experimental adaptation strategies. Key findings emphasize the necessity of diverse partnerships, the integration of the private sector, and a shift in monitoring from measuring process to measuring progress. The report details thematic outcomes across ten areas, including urban infrastructure, food security, public health, and the Arctic, while advocating for a reinforcing relationship between research 'on' and 'for' adaptation.
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Document type: Report
Arctic Resilience Assessment Synthesis for Arctic Leaders 2017
The Arctic Resilience Assessment Synthesis for Arctic Leaders 2017 argues that building resilience in the Arctic requires an integrated understanding of social-ecological systems and coordinated action across local, national, and circumpolar scales. While the primary drivers of change are global, the document emphasizes that resilience-building must occur within the Arctic through integrated monitoring, knowledge integration—specifically bridging Indigenous and scientific knowledge—and increasing the capacity of local communities to shape their own development. It identifies 19 instances where climate change and other drivers could trigger abrupt, irreversible shifts and proposes a roadmap via the Arctic Resilience Action Framework to coordinate these efforts.
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Document type: Executive summary
Unusually high temperatures at the North Pole, winter 2016 – World Weather Attribution
The North Pole experienced unprecedented warmth in November and December 2016, with temperatures reaching 15 ºC above normal on November 11. Analysis using historical observations and climate models (CMIP5 and Weather@Home) indicates that such an event would have been extremely unlikely—with a probability of less than 0.1 percent per year—in a climate without human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols. The study highlights that Arctic amplification, driven by albedo-feedback and lapse-rate feedback, makes the region the fastest-warming on Earth. Under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), such extreme heat events are projected to become commonplace by approximately 2047, corresponding to a global mean temperature increase of 2 to 3 ºC above pre-industrial levels.
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Document type: Research paper
Tillerson and Exxon environmental record: statement and background
Friends of the Earth outlines the potential conflicts of interest and environmental risks associated with Rex Tillerson becoming U.S. Secretary of State, citing ExxonMobil's history of funding climate denial and Tillerson's interests in Arctic drilling and the Keystone XL pipeline.
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Document type: Statement
U.S. Deep Freeze December 2016
The December 2016 cold air outbreak in the United States was found to be a common winter occurrence and not evidence that global warming is increasing the extremity of cold weather. Analysis of stations in Boulder, Colorado, and New Orleans, Louisiana, indicates that cold extremes are generally decreasing in intensity, particularly in New Orleans where the coldest day of the year is 3.2°F warmer than a century ago. The study concludes that while northerly wind patterns show no significant trend, the Arctic source regions for this cold air are warming rapidly, leading to a general decrease in the intensity of such outbreaks in both observations and climate models.
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Document type: Research paper
Organizational learning in regional governance: A study of the Arctic Council
The study evaluates the Arctic Council's ability to function as a learning organization. It finds that while the Council successfully bridged local and global policy on persistent organic pollutants (POPs), it has struggled to reframe its role and structure to effectively address climate change and the social impacts of extractive industries. The authors argue that 'governance fit' should be viewed as an organization's capacity for learning and adaptation rather than a fixed match between the scale of a problem and the scope of the governing body.
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Document type: Research paper
Polar bear
The report identifies polar bears as highly vulnerable to climate change due to their extreme dependence on sea ice for hunting, mating, and traveling. While the species possesses some genetic diversity and mobility, these are offset by a low reproductive rate, long generation time, and the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, which is projected to be nearly ice-free in the summer before mid-century. Key recommendations include protecting the "last ice areas" in northern Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago, increasing population monitoring, and managing rising human-wildlife conflict as bears spend more time on land.
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Document type: Report
A 5˚C Arctic
The document outlines the severe risks facing the Arctic as global temperatures rise, noting that a 2°C global increase could lead to a 4-5°C increase in the Arctic. It calls for immediate global decarbonization, the scaling of carbon dioxide removal, and urgent support for Arctic community adaptation and relocation.
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Document type: Briefing
Arctic New Research Agenda
The document reports on Arctic sustainability research as part of the ICARP-III process, highlighting the region's vulnerability to climatic and socio-economic changes and the need for prioritized research agendas.
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Document type: Research paper
It’s Time to Phase Out Heavy Fuel Oil Use for Shipping in the Arctic
The document advocates for a regional phase-out of Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) in the Arctic, noting that 96 percent of large ships in the region use this toxic fuel. It highlights the role of black carbon emissions in accelerating Arctic ice melt and the extreme difficulty of cleaning up HFO spills in remote, cold environments. The author calls on the Obama administration to use the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to address these risks, specifically by submitting a comment paper by September 2, 2016.
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Document type: Statement
To the Ends of the Earth: Antarctica, the Antarctic Treaty and South Africa
The document examines the Antarctic Treaty (1959) and its ancillary agreements, such as the Madrid Protocol, which prohibit mineral exploitation until at least 2048. It analyzes how emerging powers like China, India, and Brazil are increasing their scientific presence to gain political influence. The paper details South Africa's historical role as a founding member and its current focus on science, while arguing that South Africa should integrate its Antarctic activities more deeply into its broader foreign policy and the 'Africa Agenda' to promote a more inclusive global governance regime.
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Document type: Research paper
Integrating sustainable development and security: An analytical approach with examples from the Middle East and North Africa, the Arctic and Central Asia
The paper argues that ecological, financial, and political systems are under increasing pressure, creating a need to integrate 'hard' security (state-centric) with 'human' security (individual and ecosystem well-being). It identifies commonalities between these fields—such as uncertainty, irreversibilities, and multi-stakeholder complexity—and proposes a three-step methodology: context analysis, participatory scenario building, and options appraisal. Case studies demonstrate how water scarcity in the Nile and Euphrates-Tigris basins, climate-driven geophysical changes in the Arctic, and energy-water dependencies in Central Asia create security risks that require integrated governance and investment strategies.
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Document type: Research paper