Search Climate Insights Directory

This report conclusion outlines a strategic vision for Africa's industrialisation by 2043, arguing that a shift from exporting raw materials to manufacturing value-added goods can drive significant GDP growth, employment, and poverty reduction. It identifies the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and diversifying foreign direct investment as key catalysts for this transformation.

This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers for the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the projected economic and social development of Africa by 2043 under a 'Combined scenario' compared to a 'Current Path'. The Combined scenario, which integrates policy coherence, governance, and strategic investment, projects significantly higher GDP growth, increased GDP per capita, and a dramatic reduction in extreme poverty.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the structural and systemic barriers to trade within Africa, highlighting the impact of high tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and the continent's historical exclusion from global and regional value chains.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the historical, structural, and policy-driven reasons for Africa's under-industrialisation. It identifies a combination of colonial legacies, infrastructure deficits, skills gaps, and capital constraints as primary barriers, while noting that some countries have seen success through focused industrial strategies and the potential for global supply chain shifts to create new opportunities.

This research paper outlines the 'Demographics and Health Scenario' for Africa, a model designed to accelerate the continent's demographic transition and enhance its demographic dividend through targeted interventions in fertility, mortality, and Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WaSH) infrastructure.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines how Africa's health and Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WaSH) trajectories will impact global development, security, and economic stability. It highlights the potential for a demographic dividend if health outcomes improve, while warning that fragile health systems and climate-linked vulnerabilities could increase global pandemic risks and drive migration toward Europe and the Middle East.

This research paper outlines the short- to medium-term trade-offs and costs associated with pursuing an industrialisation and manufacturing pathway in Africa, emphasizing that while upfront fiscal, social, and environmental costs exist, the cost of inaction—marked by unemployment and external dependence—is higher.

This research paper analyzes the sectoral composition of economies across different income groups, focusing on the role of manufacturing, services, and ICT in economic development. It compares Africa's development trajectory with those of India, China, and the Asian Tigers, highlighting the impact of industrialization and demographic windows on growth.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the impact of non-tariff barriers (NTBs) on trade within Africa and between Africa and the rest of the world, highlighting both the persistence of these barriers and examples of successful reduction efforts at border crossings.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines how agricultural technologies (AgTech) and improved access to finance and fertilisers can address food insecurity and low productivity in Africa. It highlights the role of digital tools in providing credit, insurance, and data-driven farming advice, while detailing strategic efforts to increase domestic fertiliser production and soil health across the continent.

This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers analyzes the failure of UN Security Council (UNSC) reform, attributing the deadlock to the entrenched positions of negotiating blocks and the P5 members' desire to maintain the veto power and their associated privileges.

This report analyzes the drivers of economic growth in Africa, focusing on the roles of labour, capital, and multifactor productivity (MFP). It argues that due to a late demographic dividend, Africa's growth over the next two decades must rely primarily on physical capital accumulation and technological gains rather than labour-fueled growth.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines two primary policy responses to climate change in Africa: carbon sequestration through forest regeneration and the implementation of a global carbon tax. It highlights the critical role of the Congo Basin as a carbon sink and analyzes four illustrative global carbon tax scenarios, concluding that a differentiated payment approach aligns best with international equity principles and the Paris Agreement.

This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers proposes a structured process for the UN Security Council (UNSC) to adopt new rules of procedure, involving a sequence of approvals by the UNSC and the UN General Assembly (UNGA), with the International Court of Justice as a final arbiter. It also suggests a mechanism for suspending UNSC members for flagrant violations of the UN Charter.

The AfCFTA is presented as a critical mechanism for Africa's economic growth and structural transformation, though its success depends on overcoming political resistance to short-term tariff losses and addressing structural gaps in infrastructure and education. The document emphasizes that while the AfCFTA promotes regional integration, African nations must still pursue external agreements for critical manufacturing inputs and manage the integration of highly unequal economies, such as South Africa and its lower-income neighbors.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies details the progress and structure of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) negotiations, including the three phases of legal protocols, tariff liberalisation targets, and the implementation of supporting systems like the Pan African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS).

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the historical shift in African development strategies from the state-led goals of the 1980 Lagos Plan of Action to the market-driven Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAPs) imposed by the World Bank and IMF. It analyzes how these competing frameworks, alongside Cold War proxy conflicts and debt crises, contributed to a period of economic decline and decreased per capita income between 1980 and 1994.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes extreme poverty trends in Africa using a US$2.15 threshold. It highlights a divergence where the percentage of people in extreme poverty is declining, but the absolute number continues to rise due to rapid population growth, high inequality, and modest economic growth.

This research paper provides a conclusion to the 'Combined scenario' of the Agenda 2063 thematic futures, arguing that African development is a non-linear, complex process requiring national ownership, strategic prioritisation, and a 'developmental state' focused on implementation and knowledge creation rather than grand schemes.

This research paper analyzes projections for Africa's fossil fuel carbon emissions up to 2063, comparing a 'Current Path' with a 'Combined scenario' that incorporates ambitious development improvements. It identifies a small number of key countries whose energy policies will determine the continent's overall contribution to global emissions.