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The document examines 'ring-fencing'—the practice of limiting the consolidation of revenues and deductions for different activities or projects undertaken by the same taxpayer—as a tool for governments to protect the mining tax base. It analyzes the trade-offs between accelerating public revenue and potentially discouraging investment, particularly in marginal deposits. The guide details various design options, such as ring-fencing by mining license area, activity (upstream vs. downstream), or separating mining from non-mining activities. It also provides practical recommendations on allocating indirect and general expenses, managing national transfer pricing risks, and handling permanent losses from unsuccessful exploration to balance revenue needs with investment incentives.

The document argues that Africa's potential for a demographic dividend depends on accelerating the demographic transition—reducing child mortality and fertility—and converting a larger working-age population into economic growth through job creation and governance. It contrasts the youthful population of Africa with the ageing populations of Europe and the Netherlands, suggesting strategic opportunities for labour mobility and trade. Using the International Futures (ifs) model, the author presents a 'Demographics and Health' scenario where targeted investments in contraceptives, maternal health, and WASH infrastructure lead to a smaller, wealthier, and better-educated population by 2050, reducing extreme poverty by 48 million people.

The policy brief outlines the critical role of maritime transport in Africa's blue economy and the threats posed by climate change, including sea level rise and new global emissions regulations. It advocates for a new continental maritime governance framework to coordinate decarbonisation and resilience efforts. Key recommendations include transforming ports into green logistics hubs, implementing climate risk assessments in infrastructure design, and securing sustainable financing for fleet and port modernisation.

The document examines how African youth are transforming peacebuilding through AI and digital tools, shifting from passive consumers to active knowledge creators. It highlights the decentralisation of early warning systems and the use of digital platforms for peace messaging and mobilisation. However, it warns that digital divides, gender gaps, and linguistic biases—where 88% of African languages are ignored by computational tools—threaten to marginalise rural youth and women. The brief notes a disconnect between the AU's Continental Framework on Youth, Peace and Security and digital strategies, urging for integrated policies and the institutionalisation of youth roles in AI governance to ensure digital peacebuilding is ethical and inclusive.

African cities face extreme climate vulnerability, with 83% rated at 'extreme risk', yet they are largely bypassed by the global climate financial architecture. The document highlights that while cities generate 80% of global GDP and are first responders in disasters, they are not parties to international conventions like the UNFCCC. It urges cities to conduct comprehensive vulnerability assessments—including non-economic loss and damage—and to leverage city networks and multi-level governance to access the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD), the Warsaw International Mechanism, and the Santiago Network. The brief recommends that national governments integrate urban loss and damage into Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) to improve funding access and implementation.

The document argues that the COP29 finance goal of US$300 billion is insufficient, covering less than 4.3% of projected global needs, and that Africa receives less than 3% of total global finance for developing countries. It highlights a critical imbalance where only 36% of Africa's climate finance is dedicated to adaptation. The brief calls for African nations to transition from passive actors to co-creators at COP30, advocating for the 'Baku to Belém Roadmap' to reach US$1.3 trillion and demanding that finance be grant-based, accessible, and channeled through African institutions. It also notes the negative impact of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the need for more inclusive participation for least developed countries in UN negotiations.

The policy brief argues that Africa's maritime security efforts are hindered by institutional fragmentation, chronic underfunding, and a gap between high-level policy and operational capacity. It highlights that while regional bodies like SADC and ECOWAS have made progress, the African Union (AU) lacks a permanent coordinating body and a tested naval component for the African Standby Force. To address this, the authors recommend establishing an African Maritime Security Expert Group, convening a permanent Committee of the Heads of African Navies and Coastguards (CHANS), and conducting the AMANI Africa III maritime exercise to validate naval command-and-control.

The report analyzes the integration of human mobility into National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), finding that while 83% of submitted NAPs reference mobility, most lack detailed strategies for sub-national implementation. Through case studies in Costa Rica, Senegal, and Sri Lanka, it identifies gaps in financing, data, and coordination between national and local governments, while proposing a typology of approaches for localizing mobility actions.

Natural Justice assesses South Africa's 2025 draft NDC, acknowledging progress in absolute emissions targets but warning that these are undermined by over-reliance on international conditionality and a lack of concrete implementation plans. The submission argues that the draft fails to meet the 'highest possible ambition' standard set by the ICJ, citing gaps in adaptation financing, the exclusion of natural disturbance emissions from accounting, and the absence of a clear fossil fuel phase-out schedule. It recommends integrating a Human Rights-Based Approach (HRBA), establishing a grant-based Loss and Damage facility funded partly by a tax on fossil fuel profits, and mandating Free, Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC) for all climate projects.

The report identifies 2024 as the year with the highest number of state-based conflicts since 1946, with 61 conflicts across 36 countries. While the total number of battle-related deaths in 2024 (approximately 129,000) was similar to 2023, it remains the fourth most violent year since 1989, driven primarily by wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and Ethiopia's Tigray region. The paper notes a growing complexity in conflict dynamics, where a higher share of conflict-affected countries now host multiple simultaneous conflicts. Non-state conflicts decreased slightly to 74 in 2024, with Africa becoming the region with the highest number of such conflicts. One-sided violence increased to 14,000 fatalities in 2024, with non-state actors responsible for the majority of deaths, although 14 governments also perpetrated such violence.

The report argues that Africa must transition from a principled but often fragmented approach to a pragmatic diplomatic strategy to avoid becoming a 'rule-taker' in a fracturing multilateral system. It identifies critical weaknesses in African coordination, specifically within the A3+ bloc and the African Union's (AU) financial sustainability, and proposes concrete reforms for UN Security Council (UNSC) representation, peace and security financing, and the professionalization of diplomatic missions through think-tank partnerships.

The report tracks G20 climate commitments from 2008 to 2024, noting a shift from general statements to specific goals like phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies and implementing the Paris Agreement. It highlights the disruptive impact of US withdrawals from the Paris Agreement under the Trump administration and the challenges of institutional memory within the G20. For its 2025 presidency, South Africa focuses on 'solidarity, equality and sustainability', with specific priorities for Africa-focused energy access, climate-resilient agriculture, and scaling adaptation finance.

The report details the G20's shifting focus on food security from 2020 to 2025, highlighting key declarations and initiatives from various presidencies. It compares G20 efforts with G7 initiatives and other global actors like the FAO and WFP, while outlining South Africa's specific priorities for its 2024-2025 G20 presidency, including inclusive market participation and climate resilience.

The paper analyzes how South Africa and Brazil utilize climate financing to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, highlighting the differences between South Africa's coal-dominant economy and Brazil's land-use-driven emissions. It evaluates national mechanisms such as South Africa's carbon tax and Brazil's proposed Emissions Trading Scheme, while advocating for the reform of multilateral development banks to lower the cost of capital for the Global South. The author emphasizes the importance of green taxonomies and central bank risk management in mobilizing private investment and ensuring financial stability during the energy transition.

The report examines the role of South Africa's 2025 G20 presidency in advancing a 'transformational' theory of change for the climate crisis. It emphasizes 'country platforms' as a bottom-up methodology for national transition planning and argues that current global financial structures are a 'non-system' that misallocates capital and imposes an unsustainable cost of capital on developing nations, particularly in Africa. The author proposes a 'monetary architecture' approach to unlock funding by reconfiguring balance sheets, rather than relying solely on market-oriented blended finance or fiscal expansion.

South Africa's 2025 G20 presidency focuses on four key priorities: disaster resilience, debt sustainability for low-income countries, financing just energy transitions, and critical minerals for sustainable development. The presidency aims to elevate 'country platforms' like South Africa's Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) and bring African climate finance concerns to the forefront. The Sustainable Finance Working Group (SFWG) for 2025 is tasked with strengthening the global sustainable finance architecture, scaling up adaptation and just transition finance, and unlocking carbon market potential. The report highlights opportunities for South Africa to enhance follow-up mechanisms for G20 commitments, engage African Union (AU) structures, and coordinate with Brazil ahead of COP30. However, the report notes diplomatic challenges regarding the US presidency's approach to climate multilateralism and the Paris Agreement.

The 2025 Global Forum in Bridgetown, Barbados, brought together over 1,300 participants to advance a just energy transition and end energy poverty, resulting in the Barbados Declaration and over $500 million in new financial commitments for clean energy in the Global South.

The document outlines several voluntary commitments and coalitions aimed at achieving sustainable energy goals. Key initiatives include the Energy Compacts for SDG7, the Just and Inclusive Energy Transition (JIET) Compact endorsed by G20 ministers, and the No New Coal Compact. It also highlights the Council for Critical Minerals Development in the Global South, the 24/7 Carbon-Free Energy (CFE) Compact, and the Energy Compact on Gender Equality and Women’s Empowerment. Additionally, it mentions Mission 300, a World Bank and African Development Bank initiative to electrify Africa, and global networks like the Cool Coalition and Mission Efficiency.

The report identifies four primary barriers to nature-integrated finance: the underestimation of nature's intrinsic value, regulatory gaps, challenges in scaling nature-based financing, and a knowledge gap within financial institutions. It argues that the financial sector is critical for redirecting global capital toward biodiversity protection, noting a biodiversity financing gap of $700 billion annually. To address these, the document details the 'Locate' phase of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) LEAP approach, guiding institutions through scoping, identifying dependencies and impacts using tools like ENCORE, and mapping intersections with ecologically sensitive locations. It provides practical examples from entities such as Banco de Bogotá, Banco Bolivariano, and Grupo Sura to demonstrate how spatial analysis and heat maps can identify material nature-related risks in investment portfolios.

The Flood Green Guide Youth Champions pilot program engaged nine young leaders (aged 24-30) from Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia and the Pacific Islands to co-design a framework for youth involvement in flood risk management (FRM). Through a hybrid approach of in-person workshops in Sri Lanka and virtual meetings, the program developed a structure focused on capacity building, civic engagement spaces, and targeted funding. While the program successfully fostered a community of advocates and provided foundational knowledge in nature-based solutions, it faced challenges regarding long-term participant engagement and the difficulty of maintaining cohesion in a global versus regional program model.