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Private equity firms have invested nearly $200 billion in data center-related industries since January 2022, driving a strategy of acquiring vertically integrated retail energy utilities and fossil fuel power plants to secure power for AI infrastructure. BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) has acquired ALLETE Inc. and is pursuing a $38 billion takeover of AES, while Blackstone has invested in the Potomac Energy Center and is seeking to acquire TXNM Energy. The report argues that this expansion risks creating stranded high-emitting assets if AI demand is overestimated, while already causing increased electricity costs for ratepayers—rising up to 267% in some data center hubs—and significant environmental degradation. Organized community resistance has already delayed or blocked $64 billion in data center projects across 24 U.S. states.

The report analyzes the rising effective costs of coal power in India due to underutilisation, which is expected to increase average tariffs by roughly 25% as PLFs fall. It highlights that fixed costs drive 85% of this increase, making new coal capacity economically inferior to Firm and Dispatchable Renewable Energy (FDRE). The author concludes that India's 2032 power goals can be met with the ~35 GW of coal already in the pipeline, rendering further expansion unnecessary and financially risky for distribution companies (DISCOMs).

The report contends that using carbon credits to close coal plants replicates past failures of offsetting mechanisms, which often generate fictitious credits and allow polluters to continue operating. It argues that the primary goal of these markets is the exchange of credits rather than actual emission reductions. Instead of using offsets to buy out investors, the document recommends ending financial services for new coal projects, removing barriers to sustainable energy deployment, avoiding full public indemnification of stranded assets, and implementing sector-wide coordinated coal exits.

Brazil has become a top global oil producer due to pre-salt reserves, with production expected to peak at 5.3-5.4 mbd by 2029-30. While the sector is cost-competitive and the national economy has limited overall dependence on oil revenues, specific regions like Rio de Janeiro are highly vulnerable. The document argues that Brazil can leverage its renewable energy potential and critical minerals to diversify its economy into low-carbon fuels, provided it improves technological innovation and coordinates Petrobras' investments with national industrial policy.

Malaysia faces significant fiscal and energy security risks due to its heavy reliance on oil and gas exports, particularly LNG shipments to Japan, South Korea, and China. The document highlights a growing crude oil trade deficit and the threat of stranded assets as global demand shifts. To mitigate these risks, the report recommends diversifying into green manufacturing, hydrogen, and carbon capture services, while establishing a Sustainable Energy Transition Fund and a Just Transition Commission to support displaced workers in resource-dependent regions like Sabah and Sarawak.

The report estimates that public support for British Columbia's LNG sector will reach CAD 3.93 billion by 2031, including CAD 1.62 billion in federal public finance and CAD 2.16 billion from the BC government. It argues that these subsidies, provided through tax rules, preferential electricity rates, and infrastructure funding, de-risk private investment in projects that may become stranded assets due to global supply gluts and the energy transition. The document calls for the elimination of domestic fossil fuel finance, the enforcement of net-zero requirements by 2030, and increased transparency in reporting government funding.

The Production Gap Report 2025 finds that governments are collectively planning more fossil fuel production than in 2023, with 2030 projected levels exceeding 1.5°C-consistent pathways by over 120%. While some countries are developing net-zero aligned scenarios, most continue to expand production and provide substantial financial support for fossil fuels, undermining Paris Agreement commitments.

The report finds that by 2031, total federal and provincial support for the BC LNG sector will amount to CAD 3.93 billion. This support includes CAD 1.62 billion in federal public finance and CAD 2.16 billion in provincial support through foregone revenue, reduced electricity rates, and enabling infrastructure. The authors argue that these subsidies shift risk from the private sector to the public and undermine British Columbia's climate targets by failing to uphold the polluter pays principle.

The report contends that Canadian LNG projects are high-risk investments due to capital intensity, market volatility, and declining global demand. It highlights that importers in Europe and Asia are shifting toward renewables to avoid the price spikes and supply shocks associated with LNG. The authors argue that new LNG infrastructure threatens to become stranded assets, potentially requiring further taxpayer subsidies, while simultaneously increasing global greenhouse gas emissions and delaying the energy transition.

The briefing reports that while new coal mine capacity additions declined by 46% in 2024, approximately 2,270 Mtpa of new capacity remains under development globally. This pipeline is heavily concentrated in China, India, Australia, and Russia, which together account for nearly 90% of proposed developments. The document highlights that if fully realized, these projects could emit 15.7 million tonnes of methane annually, significantly hindering the achievement of the Paris Agreement and IEA Net Zero scenarios. It emphasizes the prevalence of 'greenfield' projects and the high methane intensity of underground and metallurgical coal mines.

The report finds that a significant portion of future capital investments in Canadian oil and gas (2025–2040) are at risk of becoming stranded, particularly under a 1.5°C climate scenario where up to 66% of investments could be lost. It argues that restricting oil and gas development would mitigate economic risks for investors and government, suggesting that Canada should limit expansion and redirect revenues toward clean industries.

The report argues that Brazil's plan to increase oil and gas production by 20% by 2030, largely driven by Petrobras, carries significant economic and climate risks. It finds that a majority of Petrobras' new projects would be economically unviable in a 1.5°C warming scenario and recommends that the government curb expansion, redefine Petrobras' mandate toward a transition plan, and redirect investment to avoid potential stranded asset losses of USD 13 to 36 billion.

An open letter from Carbon Market Watch and other signatories urging EU leadership to reject the use of Article 6 international credits to meet 2040 climate goals. The authors argue that relying on international credits undermines EU leadership, poses reputational risks due to poor environmental integrity, fails to provide genuine climate finance, and increases the long-term economic costs of the energy transition. They call for a science-based domestic target of at least 90% net reductions to ensure environmental integrity and maintain the EU's credibility as a historic emitter.

The report outlines the regulatory complexities of the energy transition toward low-emissions hydrogen, emphasizing the high uncertainty of future demand. It provides specific guidance for electricity and gas regulators on managing infrastructure investments, pricing, and safety risks. The authors argue that regulators must balance government policy goals with their mandate to ensure affordable and safe service, warning against 'stranded assets' if hydrogen investments are based on hype rather than economic reality. Key technical concerns include hydrogen's propensity for pipeline embrittlement, low roundtrip efficiency in power generation, and the necessity of high-integrity emissions accounting to avoid greenwashing.

Brazil is projected to increase oil and gas production by over 20% by 2030, with Petrobras driving more than half of this growth. However, analysis shows that up to 85% of Petrobrass new oil production would be economically unviable in a 1.5C world, creating significant stranded asset risks. Petrobras plans to invest USD 97 billion in oil and gas from 2025 to 2029, which is six times its spending on decarbonization and diversification. The report finds that Petrobras lags industry peers in target setting and business model diversification. To mitigate these risks, the authors recommend that the Brazilian government curb exploration licenses, redefine Petrobrass mandate toward a "harvest mode" strategy, and redirect financial flows toward clean energy, where an annual investment gap of USD 16 billion is projected by 2035.

The report finds that Canada is highly exposed to economic risks due to overinvestment in oil and gas relative to the global energy transition. Using IEA demand scenarios, it estimates that between 5% (Stated Policies Scenario) and 66% (Net Zero Emissions scenario) of projected capital investment from 2025 to 2040 could be stranded. The analysis indicates that Canadian oil is among the world's most expensive to produce, making it particularly vulnerable to price drops. The report argues that restricting the development of new fields and engaging in international diplomacy to reduce global supply could protect the industry's overall value and increase government revenues by preventing oversupply and price deflation. It also notes that U.S. tariffs on energy imports would likely amplify these risks by making Canadian production less competitive.

The briefing contends that the Asian Development Bank (ADB) uses technical assistance (TA) to enable fossil gas infrastructure and planning, despite pledges to align with the Paris Agreement. It highlights how vague terms like 'low-carbon' and 'transition infrastructure' allow the ADB to support gas-related projects in countries such as Pakistan and Indonesia. The document notes that TA for energy projects in 2024 lacked fuel specifications in 45.9% of cases, hindering transparency. It further argues that these projects often ignore gender impacts and risk creating stranded assets. The author recommends that the ADB explicitly exclude fossil gas from its 'clean energy' definitions and phase out all direct and indirect support for midstream and downstream gas infrastructure.

The briefing assesses the energy transition of the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) region, noting that while some countries have reduced gas demand and integrated grids, Russian gas imports rose in 2024 for several members. It warns that planned expansions of LNG and pipeline capacity by 2030 risk creating stranded assets due to declining demand. The author recommends that the 10th Three Seas Summit focus on a 2027 Russian gas phase-out, the creation of a 'Transmission Highway' for clean power, and the development of regional energy hubs.

The document reports a decline in Chinese crude oil consumption and LNG imports, alongside significant economic and regulatory volatility in the US oil and gas sector. It highlights corporate shifts at Shell and BP, the risk of USD 2.3 trillion in stranded fossil fuel assets, and various international developments in LNG and carbon capture.

Reclaim Finance calls on investors to vote against strategic resolutions at 2025 annual general meetings for major oil and gas companies, arguing that traditional shareholder engagement has failed to align these firms with a 1.5°C trajectory. The document highlights that 95% of oil and gas companies continue developing new projects and that some majors, such as BP, TotalEnergies, Eni, and Equinor, are increasing production or weakening climate targets. It advocates for using opposition votes as an effective lever to signal that climate priorities must be integrated into corporate strategy.