The Production Gap 2025 Report

The Production Gap Report 2025 finds that governments are collectively planning more fossil fuel production than in 2023, with 2030 projected levels exceeding 1.5°C-consistent pathways by over 120%. While some countries are developing net-zero aligned scenarios, most continue to expand production and provide substantial financial support for fossil fuels, undermining Paris Agreement commitments.

• The production gap has widened since 2023, driven primarily by expanded plans for coal and gas. Aggregate planned coal production for 2030 is 7% higher and gas production is 5% higher than estimated in the 2023 report.
• Planned oil and gas production continues to increase toward 2050, contradicting expectations that global demand for these fuels will peak before 2030. By 2050, projected total fossil fuel production remains more than 4.5 times higher than 1.5°C-consistent levels.
• The failure to curb production in the early 2020s has created a 'lost time' effect, meaning cumulative production for the decade will be higher than Paris-aligned pathways allow. Consequently, future production must decline more steeply to compensate, making reductions harder and more expensive due to infrastructure lock-in.
• Most of the 20 profiled producer countries continue to plan production levels inconsistent with their net-zero ambitions. Seventeen of these countries plan to increase the production of at least one fossil fuel by 2030, and 13 plan significant increases in gas production.
• Governments continue to provide substantial financial support for fossil fuels through direct infrastructure investment, subsidies for state-owned enterprises, and tax incentives. The fiscal cost of this support remains near an all-time high.
• There is a growing divergence in national trajectories: while some countries like Colombia and Germany are pursuing just energy transitions or faster coal phase-outs, others, most notably the United States, have actively reversed climate policies and committed to boosting fossil fuel production.
• Six of the 20 profiled countries are now developing domestic production scenarios aligned with net-zero targets, an increase from four countries in 2023.

APA

Global Energy Monitor (2025). The Production Gap 2025 Report. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/PGR2025_full_web_1.pdf

Chicago

Global Energy Monitor. The Production Gap 2025 Report. 2025. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/PGR2025_full_web_1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Global Energy Monitor |title=The Production Gap 2025 Report |date=September 2025 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/PGR2025_full_web_1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{globalenergymonitor2025production, author = {{Global Energy Monitor}}, title = {{The Production Gap 2025 Report}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2025}, month = sep, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/PGR2025_full_web_1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }