China’s weakening demand for oil and gas

The document reports a decline in Chinese crude oil consumption and LNG imports, alongside significant economic and regulatory volatility in the US oil and gas sector. It highlights corporate shifts at Shell and BP, the risk of USD 2.3 trillion in stranded fossil fuel assets, and various international developments in LNG and carbon capture.

• China's total crude oil consumption decreased by 1.2% last year, and petrol sales fell by 9% year-on-year in 2024. Diesel demand is noted to have peaked in 2019, while petrol consumption likely peaked in 2023.
• Forecasts for Chinese LNG imports have been revised downward by more than 10% due to the availability of cheaper alternatives like coal and renewables, as well as increased domestic and Russian gas supplies.
• US oil and gas drillers are facing economic pressure, with some reporting that prices must exceed USD 65 per barrel to be profitable. There is skepticism regarding the Trump administration's suggestion that production can be boosted at USD 50 per barrel.
• A significant portion of US oil and gas infrastructure consists of 'marginal wells', which represent 77% of active wells but produce less than 6% of the country's output, while contributing 40% to 60% of operational emissions.
• Meeting climate targets could lead to USD 2.3 trillion in fossil fuel assets becoming 'stranded' or economically unviable. Even in a scenario where no further climate action is taken, stranded assets are estimated at USD 872 billion.
• Shell is prioritizing shareholder returns over business growth, planning to increase the share of cash flow to shareholders to 40-50% and intending to buy back 40% of its remaining shares by 2030.
• The UK government has pledged not to issue new licenses for the exploration of new oil and gas fields, though the current proposals may allow for drilling within existing licensed areas or via 'tie-backs'.
• TotalEnergies, Equinor, and Shell are investing USD 714 million to expand the Northern Lights CCS facility in Western Norway, increasing its capacity from 1.5 million to 5 million tonnes of CO2 per year.

APA

Team, Z. (2025). China’s weakening demand for oil and gas. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/oil-and-gas/chinas-weakening-demand-for-oil-and-gas/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. China’s weakening demand for oil and gas. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2025. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/oil-and-gas/chinas-weakening-demand-for-oil-and-gas/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=China’s weakening demand for oil and gas |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=8 April 2025 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/oil-and-gas/chinas-weakening-demand-for-oil-and-gas/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2025chinas, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{China’s weakening demand for oil and gas}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2025}, month = apr, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/oil-and-gas/chinas-weakening-demand-for-oil-and-gas/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }