Resilient, but not yet Transformative: Brazil’s Oil and Gas Sector in a Decarbonising World

Brazil has become a top global oil producer due to pre-salt reserves, with production expected to peak at 5.3-5.4 mbd by 2029-30. While the sector is cost-competitive and the national economy has limited overall dependence on oil revenues, specific regions like Rio de Janeiro are highly vulnerable. The document argues that Brazil can leverage its renewable energy potential and critical minerals to diversify its economy into low-carbon fuels, provided it improves technological innovation and coordinates Petrobras' investments with national industrial policy.

• Brazil is currently the ninth largest global oil producer, with crude oil production increasing from 1.8 million barrels per day (mbd) to 3.4 mbd. In 2024, crude oil exports, valued at US$ 45 bn, were the country's top export product, with China being the primary destination (US$ 19.8 bn in 2023).
• Brazil has significant potential to lead in low-carbon fuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), green hydrogen, and advanced biofuels, as well as critical minerals. However, it lacks the technological innovation funding and concerted mineral strategies seen in the US or EU, risking a continued role as a raw material exporter.
• The document recommends that Brazil better coordinate Petrobras' planned US$ 8.9 bn clean energy expenditure (2025-29) with national industrial policy and leverage diplomatic ties with China and the EU to attract investment and technology for post-oil diversification.

APA

Lippolis, N. (2025). Resilient, but not yet Transformative: Brazil’s Oil and Gas Sector in a Decarbonising World. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/PPFF-2.0-Case-Study-Brazil.pdf

Chicago

Lippolis, Nicolas. Resilient, but not yet Transformative: Brazil’s Oil and Gas Sector in a Decarbonising World. Climate Strategies, 2025. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/PPFF-2.0-Case-Study-Brazil.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lippolis |first1=Nicolas |title=Resilient, but not yet Transformative: Brazil’s Oil and Gas Sector in a Decarbonising World |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=October 2025 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/PPFF-2.0-Case-Study-Brazil.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lippolis2025resilient, author = {Lippolis, Nicolas}, title = {{Resilient, but not yet Transformative: Brazil’s Oil and Gas Sector in a Decarbonising World}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2025}, month = oct, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/PPFF-2.0-Case-Study-Brazil.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }