Canadian Oil and Gas Production in the Global Clean Energy Transition

The report finds that a significant portion of future capital investments in Canadian oil and gas (2025–2040) are at risk of becoming stranded, particularly under a 1.5°C climate scenario where up to 66% of investments could be lost. It argues that restricting oil and gas development would mitigate economic risks for investors and government, suggesting that Canada should limit expansion and redirect revenues toward clean industries.

• Under a 1.5°C climate scenario, up to 66% of future capital investments in Canadian oil and gas projects between 2025 and 2040 are at risk of becoming stranded assets, a figure that could increase if carbon capture and storage technologies underperform.
• The risk of stranded investments varies by policy scenario: 5% of projected investments may fail to deliver returns under current global policies, while this figure rises to 39% under announced climate policies and net-zero pledges.
• Canada's oil and gas industry is highly vulnerable to international market shifts because 81% of its oil and 44% of its gas are exported, making profitability susceptible to weakening demand and climate-related trade risks.

APA

Muttitt,, G. (2025). Canadian Oil and Gas Production in the Global Clean Energy Transition. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/canada-oil-gas-clean-energy-transition

Chicago

Muttitt,, Greg. Canadian Oil and Gas Production in the Global Clean Energy Transition. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2025. https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/canada-oil-gas-clean-energy-transition.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Muttitt, |first1=Greg |title=Canadian Oil and Gas Production in the Global Clean Energy Transition |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=25 June 2025 |url=https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/canada-oil-gas-clean-energy-transition |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{muttitt2025canadian, author = {Muttitt,, Greg}, title = {{Canadian Oil and Gas Production in the Global Clean Energy Transition}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2025}, month = jun, url = {https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/canada-oil-gas-clean-energy-transition}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }