Search Climate Insights Directory

The document details the third pillar of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, focusing on a global just transition. It advocates for decentralized, people-centered renewable energy systems and the economic diversification of fossil-fuel-dependent nations. The text emphasizes that a successful transition requires wealthy nations to provide financial support and a 'fair share' of effort, while rejecting 'dangerous distractions' like carbon offsets and geoengineering. It calls for a fundamental shift from GDP-driven growth to 'well-being economies' to address the systemic root causes of the climate crisis.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp economic downturn in the MEFMI region, characterized by contracting GDP growth, widening fiscal deficits, and deteriorating external positions. To mitigate these effects, member states implemented a range of fiscal measures, such as VAT exemptions and social protection transfers, and monetary interventions, including cutting policy rates and reducing statutory reserve requirements. However, these responses, combined with lower revenues and higher borrowing costs, accelerated public debt accumulation and eroded debt-carrying capacity across the region. The document emphasizes the need for sustainable debt management, fiscal buffers, and economic diversification to build resilience against future shocks.

The report analyzes social protection as a tool for climate resilience, highlighting its ability to provide shock-responsive support, facilitate sustainable natural resource management, and cushion the impacts of low-carbon transitions. It identifies a gap in long-term structural adaptation and notes that while multilateral climate funds are increasingly engaging with social protection, integration remains fragmented and often prioritizes project-based interventions over systemic strengthening.

The policy brief asserts that a green economy will only succeed if it is inclusive, ensuring that marginalized groups, such as small-scale farmers and informal workers, have a stake in the transition. It highlights that while some international frameworks and national strategies exist, there is still a lack of meaningful participation in policymaking and a need for strategies to scale decent green jobs. The document proposes several priorities for the 2019 PAGE Ministerial, including the economic empowerment of women and youth and the adoption of innovative social policies like universal basic income or payments for ecosystem services to ensure a just transition.

The report introduces a framework for 'Inclusive Green Economies' (IGE) designed to decouple economic growth from resource consumption while ensuring social equity. It outlines five guiding principles—Wellbeing, Justice, Planetary Boundaries, Efficiency and Sufficiency, and Good Governance—and suggests ten catalytic activities to accelerate this transition. The document emphasizes that the transition is an adaptive process likely taking 10-20 years, requiring collaboration between governments, businesses, and civil society to move from awareness and pressure to policy decisions and behavioral change.

The briefing argues that current global social protection is fragmented and rooted in colonial structures, with a stark divide between the comprehensive systems of the Global North and the exclusionary, low-value assistance in the Global South. It highlights that in countries like South Africa, social assistance is under attack through austerity and exclusionary digital modalities. The author contends that a global UBI is fiscally impossible under the current economic paradigm of wealth concentration and austerity, necessitating a shift in economic power relations. Proposed solutions include a global minimum tax above 15%, an 'extreme wealth line', and debt regulation for the Global South. The document identifies Brazil, South Korea, and South Africa as front-runners in national UBI agendas and suggests a holistic strategy combining UBI with living wages and universal public services to counter economic insecurity and rising right-wing populism.

The Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) proposes a shift away from growth-dependent poverty eradication, advocating for a universal basic income grant for adults aged 18-59 in South Africa and a global wealth tax on billionaires. The submission argues against regressive VAT increases and conditional social grants, instead recommending progressive taxation, debt management strategies to lower interest costs, and the removal of algorithmic and digital barriers to social protection access.

A group of over 75 economists and experts argue that South Africa's initial economic responses to COVID-19 were insufficient in scale compared to other nations. They propose a comprehensive five-pillar strategy to support households, protect workers, sustain businesses, strengthen public health, and stabilize the broader economy, emphasizing the need for fiscal and monetary expansion to protect the most vulnerable populations.

The document compiles research on the impacts of Universal Basic Income Grants (UBIG) and cash transfers, focusing on their ability to reduce poverty, improve health, and empower women in South Africa and other low-to-middle-income countries. It challenges myths regarding welfare dependency, arguing that such grants often facilitate job searches and productive investments rather than discouraging work. The bibliography also examines the macroeconomic feasibility of UBIG through progressive taxation and the social benefits of universality over targeted assistance.

The Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ), in partnership with SECTION27 and the Center for Economic and Social Rights (CESR), conducted a project to bridge the gap between economics and human rights in South Africa. The report identifies systemic barriers, such as the lack of a shared language and the tendency of mainstream economics to ignore social objectives, while highlighting the potential for human rights to provide a normative framework for challenging economic orthodoxies. Key activities included publishing a peer-reviewed article on Human Rights Impact Assessments, producing advocacy factsheets based on UN recommendations, and hosting a multi-stakeholder convening. The findings suggest that moving beyond budget-focused advocacy toward systemic economic policy analysis and progressive jurisprudence can empower social movements and hold governments accountable for socio-economic rights.

The document argues that a just transition in South Africa must move beyond simple decarbonization to address structural inequalities rooted in the minerals-energy complex (MEC). It proposes a 'transformative resilience' framework based on three pillars: a green decent work agenda, expanded social protection (such as a universal basic income guarantee), and radical land reform. The essays detail specific vulnerabilities, including the marginalization of women in ecosystem-based adaptation, the mental health burdens of climate change on Black communities, and the precariousness of informal waste pickers. Sectoral analyses emphasize the need for inclusive food systems, urban drought resilience in cities like Cape Town, and the integration of renewable energy to support agricultural productivity and rural development.

The Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) reports that South Africa's economy continued to contract and shed jobs during the COVID-19 third wave in June 2021, with unemployment reaching record highs of 32.6% (43.2% expanded). The report highlights severe hardships, including 39% of households running out of food money in January 2021, and criticizes the slow rollout of the government's R500 billion rescue package, of which only one-third had materialized by February 2021. The IEJ identifies specific vulnerabilities in the construction, manufacturing, tourism, and informal sectors, as well as disproportionate impacts on women and children. It recommends a comprehensive set of policy priorities, including grant-based business support, extended wage subsidies, increased public infrastructure spending, and the reinstatement of the Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant.

In November 2014, Indonesia increased gasoline prices by 31% and diesel by 36%, eventually removing gasoline subsidies and introducing a fixed-price subsidy for diesel. The reform was driven by fiscal burdens, the election of President Joko Widodo, and a decline in world oil prices. While the move generated estimated savings of USD 15.6 billion in 2015—which were reinvested in ministries, infrastructure, and regional transfers—the document notes a 'missed opportunity' to invest in sustainable energy. By early 2018, the government's commitment to price stability effectively reintroduced subsidies, with estimated costs of USD 1.7 billion for the calendar year.

The document argues that Indonesia's electricity subsidies are inefficiently distributed, benefiting non-poor households and densely populated areas like Java while neglecting remote regions. It highlights that electricity subsidies have increased from Rp8.8 trillion in 2005 to Rp58 trillion in 2016, and that reform is necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and ensure support reaches the poor. Despite multiple delays, reform plans for early 2017 aim to narrow the number of subsidy recipients in the 450VA and 900VA connection classes.

The document analyzes how state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the G20 and beyond are shifting investments from coal to renewables due to cost competitiveness and climate policies. It highlights specific transitions in China (CEIC), India (Coal India Limited), and Sweden (Vattenfall), while noting that some SOEs, particularly in China, continue to invest in coal-fired power abroad. The text also discusses the role of SOEs in providing social protection during the energy transition and mentions similar shifts in the oil and gas sectors in Saudi Arabia, Norway, and Denmark.

The document examines Tanzania's macroeconomic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, noting that a 'business-as-usual' approach without lockdowns, combined with expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, helped the country avert a recession in 2020. It details specific Bank of Tanzania (BoT) interventions to maintain liquidity and recommends further macroprudential policies, increased healthcare financing, and the implementation of climate-resilient economic strategies.

The document examines the intersection of Tanzania's COVID-19 recovery strategy and its climate commitments under the NDC. It argues that the pandemic's recovery phase provides a strategic opportunity to implement 'green recovery' by leveraging investment complementarities across sectors such as agriculture, health, tourism, and water. The paper highlights a significant financing gap, noting that 96% of NDC funding is expected from development partners, and advocates for innovative climate financing and public-private partnerships to de-risk investments, particularly for smallholder farmers.

The document analyzes Nigeria's economic contraction and subsequent recovery during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the role of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and fiscal stimulus. It identifies critical gaps in social protection, gender-responsive policy, and fiscal buffers, while advocating for central bank independence and digital economy integration for long-term stability.

The document examines the distributional effects of COVID-19 macroeconomic policies in Nigeria and Uganda, finding that 'neutral' policy designs often exacerbate existing inequalities. It highlights the exclusion of the urban poor, women, and the informal sector from cash transfers and financial relief, while noting that monetary policy easing has not translated into lower lending rates for high-risk borrowers. The brief recommends leveraging electronic platforms for cash distribution, increasing investment in renewable energy for low-income households, and improving long-term tax capacity to fund social protection.

The research introduces a multidimensional index to measure socioeconomic vulnerability to COVID-19, incorporating macroeconomic exposure, healthcare coverage, financial inclusion, social protection, and gender inclusivity. Using data from 83 countries, the study finds that African nations are among the most vulnerable, with gender inequality acting as a primary driver. Regression analysis confirms that higher vulnerability scores and more stringent containment measures were associated with more significant per capita income losses in 2020. The author argues that pandemic response strategies must move away from 'one-size-fits-all' containment measures and instead prioritize gender inclusion, social protection, and financial inclusion to build resilience.