Tanzania’s post-COVID-19 recovery strategy and the NDC

This research paper by the South African Institute of International Affairs examines the intersection of Tanzania's post-COVID-19 recovery strategies and its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). It argues that the COVID-19 response provides a critical window to integrate climate resilience into macroeconomic policy, particularly through 'green recovery' paths in agriculture, health, tourism, and water sectors. The paper highlights significant financing gaps, noting that the NDC requires $14.2 billion, with a heavy reliance on international development partners, and suggests innovative financing and public-private partnerships to bridge these gaps.

• Tanzania's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) has a total implementation cost estimated at $14.2 billion, with adaptation costs representing 65% of that budget. The energy sector is the primary focus, receiving 70% of the total budget ($9.9 billion).
• The Tanzania COVID-19 Socio-Economic Response and Recovery Plan (TCRP) of 2021 offers opportunities to mainstream NDC goals into sector recovery, specifically in agriculture, health, tourism, water, and social protection.
• Tanzania's agriculture sector is highly vulnerable to climate change, with national food production projected to drop by 813% by 2050. Under a business-as-usual scenario, the loss of agricultural GDP due to climate impacts is estimated at $27 billion over the next five decades.
• There is a significant financing gap for the NDC, as the Third Five-Year Development Plan (FYDP III) estimates that 96% of the required funding must come from development partners, indicating a lack of internal financing mechanisms.
• The health sector faces climate-driven risks, including a predicted 1529% increase in the relative risk of cholera for every 1C temperature rise. The estimated cost of cholera attributable to climate change could reach 0.321.4% of Tanzania's GDP by 2030.
• Innovative climate financing, such as the joint-financing of the Tanzania Agriculture Climate Adaptation Technology Deployment Programme (TACATDP) by the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and CRDB Bank, serves as a model for leveraging private sector capital and de-risking investments for smallholder farmers.
• The National Carbon Monitoring Centre (NCMC) is a key institutional milestone for monitoring greenhouse gas emissions, but its data must be actively integrated into sectoral development policies to ensure a green trajectory.

APA

Yanda, P., Mashindano, O., & Songole, A. (n.d.). Tanzania’s post-COVID-19 recovery strategy and the NDC. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/CoMPRA-18-yanda-mashindano-songole-002.pdf

Chicago

Yanda, Pius, Oswald Mashindano, and Abel Songole. Tanzania’s post-COVID-19 recovery strategy and the NDC. South African Institute of International Affairs, n.d. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/CoMPRA-18-yanda-mashindano-songole-002.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yanda |first1=Pius |last2=Mashindano |first2=Oswald |last3=Songole |first3=Abel |title=Tanzania’s post-COVID-19 recovery strategy and the NDC |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/CoMPRA-18-yanda-mashindano-songole-002.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yandandtanzanias, author = {Yanda, Pius and Mashindano, Oswald and Songole, Abel}, title = {{Tanzania’s post-COVID-19 recovery strategy and the NDC}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/CoMPRA-18-yanda-mashindano-songole-002.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }