Tanzania’s post-COVID-19 recovery strategy and the NDC

The document examines the intersection of Tanzania's COVID-19 recovery strategy and its climate commitments under the NDC. It argues that the pandemic's recovery phase provides a strategic opportunity to implement 'green recovery' by leveraging investment complementarities across sectors such as agriculture, health, tourism, and water. The paper highlights a significant financing gap, noting that 96% of NDC funding is expected from development partners, and advocates for innovative climate financing and public-private partnerships to de-risk investments, particularly for smallholder farmers.

• Tanzania's development framework, specifically the Three Five-Year Development Plans (FYDPs), increasingly integrates climate action, with all three viewing climate change action as a way to secure financing for development projects.
• The Tanzania COVID-19 Socio-Economic Response and Recovery Plan (TCRP) of 2021 offers opportunities to mainstream NDC goals into sector recovery efforts, particularly in agriculture, health, tourism, water, and social protection.
• Climate change poses a severe threat to Tanzanian agriculture, with projected food production decreases of 8–13% by 2050 and an estimated agricultural GDP loss of $27 billion over the next five decades.
• There is a strong link between climate change and public health in Tanzania; for every 1°C increase in temperature, the initial relative risk of cholera is predicted to rise by 15–29%.
• The cost of implementing Tanzania's NDC is estimated at $14.2 billion, with 65% of that budget dedicated to adaptation. The energy sector is the most significant component, accounting for 70% ($9.9 billion) of the total budget.
• Tanzania faces a critical internal financing gap for its climate goals, as the FYDP III estimates that 96% of the funding required for the NDC must be sourced from development partners.
• To attract private investment for green recovery, Tanzania needs to utilize innovative climate financing and de-risking mechanisms, such as the blended finance model used by CRDB Bank and the Green Climate Fund for the TACATDP programme.
• The National Carbon Monitoring Centre (NCMC) should move beyond record-keeping to ensure that its emission trend and trajectory data actively inform and shape sectoral development policies.

APA

Yanda, P., Mashindano, O., & Songole, A. (n.d.). Tanzania’s post-COVID-19 recovery strategy and the NDC. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/CoMPRA-18-yanda-mashindano-songole-002.pdf

Chicago

Yanda, Pius, Oswald Mashindano, and Abel Songole. Tanzania’s post-COVID-19 recovery strategy and the NDC. South African Institute of International Affairs, n.d. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/CoMPRA-18-yanda-mashindano-songole-002.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yanda |first1=Pius |last2=Mashindano |first2=Oswald |last3=Songole |first3=Abel |title=Tanzania’s post-COVID-19 recovery strategy and the NDC |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/CoMPRA-18-yanda-mashindano-songole-002.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yandandtanzanias, author = {Yanda, Pius and Mashindano, Oswald and Songole, Abel}, title = {{Tanzania’s post-COVID-19 recovery strategy and the NDC}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/CoMPRA-18-yanda-mashindano-songole-002.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }