GCF Social protection and climate change: A strategic review of the evidence

The report analyzes social protection as a tool for climate resilience, highlighting its ability to provide shock-responsive support, facilitate sustainable natural resource management, and cushion the impacts of low-carbon transitions. It identifies a gap in long-term structural adaptation and notes that while multilateral climate funds are increasingly engaging with social protection, integration remains fragmented and often prioritizes project-based interventions over systemic strengthening.

• Social protection systems can mitigate the impact of climate shocks by preventing negative coping strategies and protecting human development outcomes. For example, in Zambia, social cash transfers increased monthly food expenditures per capita by 29 to 34 percent and reduced severe food insecurity by 22 to 23 percent during climate-induced rainfall shocks.
• Anticipatory social protection, which uses forecast triggers to deliver assistance before a shock, can reduce the cost of response and protect livelihoods. In Bangladesh, humanitarian cash transfers delivered seven days before 2020 monsoon floods improved food consumption and enabled households to evacuate people and livestock.
• Public works programmes can deliver both social protection and climate mitigation by focusing on natural resource management. India's MGNREGS provides employment to roughly 100 million rural workers annually, with about 65% of work focused on water management and land development.
• Conditional incentives in social protection can effectively reduce deforestation. Brazil's Bolsa Verde programme achieved deforestation rates 44% to 53% lower than the counterfactual, with carbon reduction benefits three times the programme cost.
• Social protection can facilitate 'just transitions' by cushioning households from the price shocks of climate mitigation policies, such as the removal of fossil fuel subsidies. Indonesia's 2014 reform used targeted conditional transfers and a national health insurance scheme to protect vulnerable households from gasoline subsidy removal.
• Climate change creates operational and financial pressures on social protection systems by increasing demand for assistance and altering risk profiles. The World Bank estimates that without ambitious mitigation, the number of people in extreme monetary poverty could double by 2050.
• There is a risk of maladaptation when social protection is designed as an isolated intervention. For instance, providing post-shock income support in areas with poor long-term environmental prospects may inadvertently incentivise households to remain in high-risk locations rather than relocating.
• Multilateral climate funds (MCFs) are increasingly using social protection for adaptation, but the approach is often fragmented. The GCF has 41 projects including social protection, while the GEF has reported 44 projects focusing on climate-resilient livelihoods and public works.
• A significant challenge for MCFs is the tension between mandates for immediate project benefits and the need for long-term system strengthening. Because social protection delivers public goods through state-led systems rather than market-based mechanisms, it may be perceived as less aligned with dominant 'catalytic finance' logics.

APA

Green Climate Fund (n.d.). GCF Social protection and climate change: A strategic review of the evidence. https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/documents/2026-06/260520-gcfxopm-social-protection-literature-review.pdf

Chicago

Green Climate Fund. GCF Social protection and climate change: A strategic review of the evidence. n.d. https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/documents/2026-06/260520-gcfxopm-social-protection-literature-review.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Green Climate Fund |title=GCF Social protection and climate change: A strategic review of the evidence |url=https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/documents/2026-06/260520-gcfxopm-social-protection-literature-review.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{greenclimatefundndgcf, author = {{Green Climate Fund}}, title = {{GCF Social protection and climate change: A strategic review of the evidence}}, institution = {Green Climate Fund}, url = {https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/documents/2026-06/260520-gcfxopm-social-protection-literature-review.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }