Geopolitics and the UBI

This briefing by Neil Coleman of the Institute for Economic Justice analyzes the geopolitical disparities in social protection between the Global North and Global South. It argues that while the Global North faces a decline in its social democratic contract, the Global South struggles with fragmented, low-value assistance and high exclusion rates. The author contends that a Universal Basic Income (UBI) is currently unaffordable under the existing economic paradigm and requires radical global redistributive reforms, such as a global minimum tax and debt relief, to become feasible.

• There is a stark disparity in social protection coverage between high-income and low-income countries. According to the World Bank's State of Social Protection Report 2025, 97% of the poorest 20% in upper-income countries have coverage, whereas only 28% of the same group in low-income countries are covered.
• Social protection in the Global South is characterized by extreme poverty targeting and significant exclusion errors. Research from Development Pathways indicates that exclusion rates range from just over 40% in Brazil to as high as 90% in some other countries.
• In South Africa, the Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant, which was intended as a foundation for a basic income system, has seen its beneficiary count drop from 11 million at its peak to approximately 8 million due to the introduction of conditionalities.
• The World Bank projects that under current trajectories, it will take until 2043 for those in extreme poverty to be fully covered by social protection and until 2045 for the poorest 20% of households in low- and middle-income countries to be covered.
• The author argues that UBI is unaffordable within the current economic paradigm of wealth concentration and austerity. Realizing a global UBI would require radical redistributive measures, including a global minimum tax significantly higher than the 15% OECD minimum, a Financial Transactions Tax, and a cap on extreme wealth.
• Brazil, South Korea, and South Africa are identified as the front-runners most likely to be the first to establish national Basic Income systems.
• In Mexico, the combination of expanded social assistance and tripling the national minimum wage from $4.75 to $15 per day resulted in 13.4 million fewer people living in poverty in 2024 compared to 2018, representing a 26% decline.

APA

Coleman, N. (n.d.). Geopolitics and the UBI. Institute for Economic Justice. https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/BIEN-2025-Neil-Coleman.pdf

Chicago

Coleman, Neil. Geopolitics and the UBI. Institute for Economic Justice, n.d. https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/BIEN-2025-Neil-Coleman.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Coleman |first1=Neil |title=Geopolitics and the UBI |publisher=Institute for Economic Justice |url=https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/BIEN-2025-Neil-Coleman.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{colemanndgeopolitics, author = {Coleman, Neil}, title = {{Geopolitics and the UBI}}, institution = {Institute for Economic Justice}, url = {https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/BIEN-2025-Neil-Coleman.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }