Geopolitics and the UBI

The briefing argues that current global social protection is fragmented and rooted in colonial structures, with a stark divide between the comprehensive systems of the Global North and the exclusionary, low-value assistance in the Global South. It highlights that in countries like South Africa, social assistance is under attack through austerity and exclusionary digital modalities. The author contends that a global UBI is fiscally impossible under the current economic paradigm of wealth concentration and austerity, necessitating a shift in economic power relations. Proposed solutions include a global minimum tax above 15%, an 'extreme wealth line', and debt regulation for the Global South. The document identifies Brazil, South Korea, and South Africa as front-runners in national UBI agendas and suggests a holistic strategy combining UBI with living wages and universal public services to counter economic insecurity and rising right-wing populism.

• There is a profound disparity in social protection coverage between high-income and low-income countries; 97% of the poorest 20% in upper-income countries have coverage, compared to only 28% in low-income countries.
• Social protection in the Global South is characterized by extreme poverty targeting and significant exclusion errors, ranging from over 40% in Brazil to 90% in some other countries.
• In South Africa, the Social Relief of Distress (SRD) Grant has seen its beneficiary count drop from 11 million at its peak to approximately 8 million due to the introduction of exclusionary conditionalities.
• The World Bank projects that under current trajectories, it will take until 2043 for those in extreme poverty to be fully covered by social protection and until 2045 for the poorest 20% of households in low- and middle-income countries to be covered.
• A global UBI is deemed unaffordable within the current economic paradigm; its realization requires radical redistributive measures such as a global minimum tax exceeding the 15% OECD rate, a Financial Transactions Tax, and an 'extreme wealth line'.
• Brazil, South Korea, and South Africa are identified as the primary front-runners likely to be the first to establish national Basic Income systems.
• Combining social assistance expansion with a significant increase in the national minimum wage in Mexico (tripling it from $4.75 to $15 per day) resulted in 13.4 million fewer people living in poverty in 2024 compared to 2018.

APA

Coleman, N. (n.d.). Geopolitics and the UBI. Institute for Economic Justice. https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/BIEN-2025-Neil-Coleman.pdf

Chicago

Coleman, Neil. Geopolitics and the UBI. Institute for Economic Justice, n.d. https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/BIEN-2025-Neil-Coleman.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Coleman |first1=Neil |title=Geopolitics and the UBI |publisher=Institute for Economic Justice |url=https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/BIEN-2025-Neil-Coleman.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{colemanndgeopolitics, author = {Coleman, Neil}, title = {{Geopolitics and the UBI}}, institution = {Institute for Economic Justice}, url = {https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/BIEN-2025-Neil-Coleman.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }