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State of the Nation: Follow-through now imperative
The author argues that South Africa's economic growth is hindered by energy constraints, untenable industrial relations, and low private investment. While the president's address identifies these pressures, the author contends that powerful vested interests and parastatal red tape block necessary structural changes, such as the Independent System Market Operator (ISMO) Bill and the Independent Power Producers (IPP) Programme. The text criticizes the reliance on coal-fired mega projects and a costly nuclear fleet programme, suggesting that greater IPP procurement is a more efficient way to diversify the energy mix. Additionally, it calls for institutional changes to the Labour Relations Act to democratise industrial relations and warns that social interventions in mining communities must be balanced with efforts to attract private investment to revitalise the sector.
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Document type: Research paper
What difference can it make? A comparison of the parties' electoral manifestos
The analysis reveals a sharp ideological divide between left-wing parties (PES, EGP, EL) and right-wing parties (EPP, ALDE) concerning the causes of the financial crisis and the role of public investment. While there is broad consensus on the need for a transition to renewable energy, the European Green Party (EGP) is the only party providing specific quantitative targets for carbon emissions and energy efficiency. Democratic reform is prioritized by smaller parties (ALDE, EGP, EL), whereas the larger PES and EPP parties largely ignore treaty reform in their platforms.
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Document type: Research paper
Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions From Existing Power Plants: Options to Ensure Electric System Reliability
The report argues that EPA's regulation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from existing power plants under Section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act will not jeopardize electric system reliability. Unlike the unit-specific MATS rule, Section 111(d) employs a 'cooperative federalism' model, allowing states to develop State Implementation Plans (SIPs) with significant flexibility. This includes 'inside the fence' options like heat-rate improvements and 'outside the fence' options such as emission-averaging, carbon budgets, and demand-side reductions. The author notes that current industry conditions—including low natural gas prices, underutilized natural-gas-fired combined-cycle (NGCC) capacity, flat electricity demand, and the growth of renewables—provide a buffer that supports reliable compliance. The report concludes that as long as EPA, states, and industry engage in timely planning, the regulatory framework provides sufficient latitude to maintain power system adequacy and security.
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Document type: Report
How to elect a green mayor
In the 2014 French municipal elections, Eric Piolle of the Europe Ecologie les Verts (EELV) party won the mayoralty of Grenoble with 40% of the vote in the second round. This victory is highlighted as a significant achievement for French ecologists, as it occurred without the support of the Socialist Party. The document attributes the success to a long history of ecological activism in Grenoble, a comprehensive program featuring 120 precise measures, and a coalition that included the Parti de Gauche. Piolle's victory allows him to govern without Socialist Party councillors due to the French electoral system's majority bonus.
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Document type: Case study
Forecasting South African election results
The document analyzes four potential political pathways for South Africa: 'Bafana Bafana' (moderate underachievement), 'The Future is ANC' (continued dominance), 'The Rise of Multiparty Democracy' (coalition governance), and 'A Nation Divided' (populist decline). It identifies the leadership of the ANC, splits within COSATU, rising voter apathy among 'born frees', and the DA's ability to attract black voters as decisive factors. The author recommends electoral reforms, including a mixed-member proportional system and mandatory voting, to address a lack of political accountability.
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Document type: Policy brief
Energy Sector in Bangladesh: An agenda for reforms
The report examines the energy sector in Bangladesh, highlighting a sharp increase in energy subsidies from US$128 million in FY2010 to US$1.91 billion in FY2012. It identifies a critical supply-demand gap in electricity and the high cost of relying on liquid fuel-based rental power plants. The document outlines the government's Power System Master Plan (PSMP) 2010, which aims for fuel diversification including coal, nuclear, and renewables. It argues for a transition toward cost-reflective pricing and targeted cash transfers to replace broad subsidies, aligned with an IMF Extended Credit Facility arrangement to restore fiscal sustainability.
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Document type: Report
INDONESIA ENERGY SUBSIDY REVIEW
The document examines Indonesia's energy subsidy regime, which in 2013 cost the government IDR 299.8 trillion (US$ 27.0 billion), representing 2.5% of GDP. It details the 2013 price increases for gasoline and diesel, the subsequent social compensation packages, and the challenges of LPG and electricity subsidy reforms. The report argues that these subsidies are regressive, encourage wasteful consumption, and crowd out critical infrastructure and social welfare spending. It provides recommendations for transitioning toward targeted assistance and renewable energy to ensure macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth.
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Document type: Report
Alternative Approaches for Regulating Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Existing Power Plants under the Clean Air Act: Practical Pathways to Meaningful Reductions
The document argues that mass-based emission standards are superior to rate-based standards for regulating existing power plants because they avoid production incentives that can lead to emissions 'rebound' and conflicts with existing regional trading systems. Through economic modeling, the author compares a 'fossil budget' approach (covering all fossil units) and a 'coal budget/gas rate' approach. Both core cases are projected to reduce fossil sector carbon emissions by 26% to 27% relative to 2005 levels by 2020, primarily by displacing high-emission coal generation with existing natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) units. While the fossil budget approach provides stronger long-term price signals for zero-carbon investment, the coal budget/gas rate approach results in lower near-term emission credit prices ($20/tonne vs $34/tonne), lower wholesale price increases (6.9% vs 27.9%), and lower retail rate impacts (2.3% vs 4.1%).
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Document type: Research paper
The climate risks of natural gas
The document examines the risks of relying on natural gas for US electricity, noting that while it burns cleaner than coal, its expected replacement of nuclear power and its role in meeting rising electricity demand would prevent necessary emission cuts. It highlights that methane leaks from production and transport further erode climate benefits, and suggests that a transition to 80% renewable energy by 2050 is a viable, more cost-effective alternative.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Three key pressure points to improve mining outlook
The document identifies three primary pressure points affecting South Africa's mining outlook: a negative macroeconomic environment characterized by currency volatility and regulatory uncertainty, structural gaps in infrastructure and skills, and the need to better leverage existing strengths such as reserve size and financial services. It warns that internal instability and global headwinds, including slowing demand from China, are eroding South Africa's competitive edge relative to other sub-Saharan African nations and mature mining jurisdictions.
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Document type: Research paper
WARNING TO NAVIGATORS: IPCC REPORT ON CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION
The document examines the IPCC's 2014 report on climate change mitigation, noting that global greenhouse gas emissions have accelerated despite existing climate plans. It argues that to limit temperature rise to 2°C, emissions must be reduced by 40-70% by 2050 and reach almost zero by 2100, requiring radical technological and institutional shifts. While the report finds these goals technically and economically feasible, it stresses the urgency of investments between 2010 and 2030 to avoid costly and risky negative emission technologies like large-scale biomass combined with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).
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Document type: Policy brief
Maryland’s Six Climate Change Audiences
The report segments Marylanders into six climate change audiences: Alarmed, Concerned, Cautious, Disengaged, Doubtful, and Dismissive. In spring 2013, 62% of residents fell into the Alarmed (23%) and Concerned (39%) categories. The study finds high polarization regarding local environmental changes and health risks, while identifying broad support for renewable energy and the protection of public water supplies. It details the demographic and behavioral profiles of each segment to inform state climate and energy policy communication.
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Document type: Report
Public Beliefs, Behaviors & Preferences about Energy
The report finds that a large majority of Marylanders favor increasing the use of renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, while expressing a desire to reduce the use of coal and petroleum. While there is strong support for state mandates requiring renewable energy percentages and for financial rebates on energy-efficient appliances, there is low interest and participation in home energy audits due to cost and awareness barriers. Additionally, the survey reveals a significant gap in support for natural gas depending on whether it is extracted via hydraulic fracturing within the state.
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Document type: Report
Public Health, Energy & Climate Change A Maryland Statewide Survey
The 2014 survey of Maryland residents indicates a strong public perception that climate change harms human health, particularly through respiratory issues and heat stroke. While medical professionals are highly trusted sources of information, residents perceive fossil fuels and nuclear power as health hazards, contrasting with a view of solar and wind energy as non-harmful. The report also notes an increase in concern regarding chemical exposure and pollution, and identifies health care access and environmental health as top state policy priorities.
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Document type: Report
The 2014 SAIIA Young Leaders Declaration
The 2014 SAIIA Young Leaders Declaration outlines youth-led recommendations for the Sustainable Development Goals, focusing on economic inclusivity, environmental protection, and social equity in South Africa and globally.
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Document type: Statement
Energy security should have more weight in low carbon scenarios
The briefing critiques the EU's Energy Roadmap 2050 for providing only a "superficial treatment" of energy security, primarily limiting its analysis to import dependency and grid stability. The authors argue that energy security is a complex concept encompassing not only security of supply but also security of demand, economic and political risks, and environmental threats. They highlight that the roadmap relies on implicit assumptions—such as the guaranteed expansion of transmission infrastructure and the resolution of nuclear security issues—which may conceal potential challenges in the transition to a low-carbon system. The document advocates for a shift from purely quantitative metrics to a framework that includes qualitative assessments and considers the perspectives of various actors, including households and industries.
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Document type: Briefing
South Africa’s Green Economy Transition: Implications for Reorienting the Economy Towards a Low-Carbon Growth Trajectory
The document examines South Africa's efforts to shift toward a low-carbon growth trajectory through various policy frameworks like the National Development Plan and the Green Economy Accord. It highlights a fundamental tension: while the government aims for a green transition to create jobs and reduce emissions, the country remains heavily reliant on coal-fired power and extractive industries to address urgent poverty and unemployment. The paper also explores South Africa's potential to lead other African nations in green investment and policy development.
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Document type: Research paper
ALTERNATIVE TRAJECTORIES FOR DECARBONIZING URBAN TRANSPORTATION
The document argues that without major intervention, transportation carbon emissions will double by 2050. It identifies a combination of reduced passenger car demand, improved vehicle efficiency, increased electric vehicle adoption, and a decarbonized electricity grid (via renewables, nuclear, or CCS) as the necessary path to significant reductions. A case study based on a Spanish city with 360,000 inhabitants demonstrates that while modal shifts and fuel switches (like CNG or biodiesel) offer modest gains, the most aggressive reductions occur when these are paired with a transition to nuclear or CCS-equipped power generation.
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Document type: Policy brief
Decarbonising urban transportation
The research paper evaluates strategies to decarbonise urban transportation, focusing on modal shifts, fuel switching, and electricity decarbonisation. Using a Spanish urban area as a model, it finds that aggressive measures—including a 50% reduction in car demand, improved fuel economy, and a shift to nuclear or CCS-equipped power—are necessary to significantly lower emissions and health burdens from particulate matter.
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Document type: Research paper
Unpublished letter to Economist responding to 12 Oct 2013 cover story “How to lose €500 billion,”
The author contends that European electric utilities' financial losses result from failed investment strategies and a failure to adapt to disruptive renewable technologies rather than the technologies themselves. The letter highlights the macroeconomic benefits of renewables in Germany, the technical feasibility of high renewable penetration in Denmark, Spain, and Portugal, and the global trend of non-hydro renewables outproducing nuclear power. It suggests that utilities need new revenue models, such as bidirectional value tariffs, to survive the transition to a decarbonised, distributed energy system.
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Document type: Statement