South Africa’s Green Economy Transition: Implications for Reorienting the Economy Towards a Low-Carbon Growth Trajectory

The document examines South Africa's efforts to shift toward a low-carbon growth trajectory through various policy frameworks like the National Development Plan and the Green Economy Accord. It highlights a fundamental tension: while the government aims for a green transition to create jobs and reduce emissions, the country remains heavily reliant on coal-fired power and extractive industries to address urgent poverty and unemployment. The paper also explores South Africa's potential to lead other African nations in green investment and policy development.

• South Africa has established a comprehensive set of policy frameworks to guide its green transition, including the 2008 National Framework on Sustainable Development (NFSD), the 2011 National Development Plan (NDP), and the 2011 Green Economy Accord.
• The South African energy supply is overwhelmingly dominated by coal, which accounted for 79% of supply in 2000 and 65.7% in 2006, creating a significant barrier to a low-carbon transition.
• There is a critical conflict between green goals and socio-economic imperatives, as the country relies on GHG-producing industries to combat high unemployment and poverty.
• The government has proposed a carbon tax of $12 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) to be effective from 1 January 2015, featuring a 60% tax-free exemption threshold.
• While the green economy could create jobs—with estimates of 400,000 by 2030—there is a risk that job losses in the coal and mining sectors may outweigh these gains, particularly for low-skilled workers.
• South Africa is positioned to lead other African nations in the green transition by sharing lessons on financing, institutional structures, and negotiating favorable agreements with developed countries.

APA

Kaggwa, M., Mutanga, S. S., Nhamo, G., & Simelane, T. (2013). South Africa’s Green Economy Transition: Implications for Reorienting the Economy Towards a Low-Carbon Growth Trajectory. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Occasional-Paper-168.pdf

Chicago

Kaggwa, Martin, Shingirirai Savious Mutanga, Godwell Nhamo, and Thokozani Simelane. South Africa’s Green Economy Transition: Implications for Reorienting the Economy Towards a Low-Carbon Growth Trajectory. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2013. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Occasional-Paper-168.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kaggwa |first1=Martin |last2=Mutanga |first2=Shingirirai Savious |last3=Nhamo |first3=Godwell |last4=Simelane |first4=Thokozani |title=South Africa’s Green Economy Transition: Implications for Reorienting the Economy Towards a Low-Carbon Growth Trajectory |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=December 2013 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Occasional-Paper-168.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kaggwa2013south, author = {Kaggwa, Martin and Mutanga, Shingirirai Savious and Nhamo, Godwell and Simelane, Thokozani}, title = {{South Africa’s Green Economy Transition: Implications for Reorienting the Economy Towards a Low-Carbon Growth Trajectory}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2013}, month = dec, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Occasional-Paper-168.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }