Search Climate Insights Directory

The document analyzes South Africa's transition from a coal-dependent economy, highlighting the tension between transformative visions of social justice and narrower, market-based decarbonization efforts. It identifies significant challenges, including high regional economic dependence in Mpumalanga, a massive funding gap for the Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET IP), and institutional failures such as state capture and fragmented governance. The report examines the divergent perspectives of trade unions, national and local governments, state-owned utility Eskom, and civil society, while emphasizing the need for procedural justice and bottom-up engagement to ensure the transition does not entrench existing inequalities.

The 2024 'Pedal to the Metal' report by Global Energy Monitor finds a significant shift toward lower-emissions electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking in new announcements, with 93% of newly announced capacity following this route. However, a substantial gap exists between announcements and construction, as less than 14% of potential EAF capacity is currently being built, and 46% of projects under construction remain based on basic oxygen furnaces (BOF). While direct reduced iron (DRI) now makes up 36% of developing ironmaking capacity, 308 mtpa of new coal-based blast furnace capacity is still under development globally, primarily driven by India and China, posing a risk of carbon lock-in.

Ammonia is essential for global food security via fertilizers and is emerging as a critical low-carbon energy carrier and maritime fuel. While current production relies on fossil fuels—contributing over 1% of global GHG emissions—the transition to 'green ammonia' via electrolysis and renewable energy offers a path to carbon neutrality. RMI forecasts a 113% increase in US ammonia production by 2030, driven by hydrogen exports to the EU and the adoption of ammonia-powered shipping, provided that technical challenges and NOx/N2O emissions are managed.

Africa possesses vast untapped renewable energy resources, including 60% of global solar resources, yet accounts for only 1.6% of global installed renewable capacity. The continent faces significant barriers to energy transition, including a massive financing gap—requiring $557 billion by 2030—and a heavy reliance on imported technologies, with Africa contributing less than 1% of global clean energy patent applications. While the region holds 40% of global critical mineral reserves essential for green technologies, it primarily serves as a raw material supplier. The document advocates for strengthened partnerships with the G20 and Global North to improve climate finance, facilitate technology transfer, and develop local green value chains to move beyond the export of primary commodities.

South Africa's foreign policy is centered on 'active non-alignment' and the 'universality' posture, aiming to mediate global conflicts and promote the interests of the Global South. A primary focus is the African continent, specifically through the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the pursuit of Agenda 2063. The government seeks to enhance economic diplomacy by supporting South African investments in Africa and developing regional value chains for critical minerals like lithium. Additionally, South Africa maintains a commitment to human rights and self-determination, evidenced by its legal actions at the International Court of Justice regarding Palestine and its support for Western Sahara. On a multilateral level, the country advocates for the reform of the UN Security Council and leverages its membership in BRICS and the G20 to amplify African influence.

The report argues that while military R&D alone cannot solve the climate challenge due to long equipment lifecycles, a comprehensive approach combining innovation, policy changes, and procurement can significantly reduce emissions. It highlights the transition to low-carbon technologies in operations (such as sustainable aviation fuels and hybrid vehicles), the decarbonization of fixed infrastructure through microgrids and small modular reactors, and the need to address Scope 3 emissions within the defense industrial supply chain. The authors emphasize that procurement is the most powerful tool for militaries to catalyze clean energy markets and steer the defense industry toward net-zero goals.

The 2024 Global Steel Plant Tracker and Global Blast Furnace Tracker data show a growing momentum toward electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking, with 49% of capacity under development using this route. However, significant carbon lock-in risks persist as 308 mtpa of new coal-based blast furnace capacity is under development, primarily in Asia. India has surpassed China as the top overall steel developer, though China remains the largest operator of emissions-intensive capacity. While direct reduced iron (DRI) capacity is increasing, its climate impact depends on the transition to green hydrogen reducing agents, as much current capacity relies on methane or coal.

The report analyzes how border carbon adjustments (BCAs), such as the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), affect Trinidad and Tobago's hydrocarbon-dependent economy. It identifies significant risks to the competitiveness of key exports like ammonia and fertilizers, while highlighting opportunities for the country to accelerate its transition to a green hydrogen economy and implement domestic carbon pricing.

The United Kingdom plans to introduce a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2027 to prevent carbon leakage as free allowances under its Emissions Trading System (ETS) are phased out. While similar to the EU CBAM, the UK version will cover ceramics and glass but exclude electricity, and it will lack a transition period. The report highlights risks including potential trade diversion, administrative burdens for exporters, and diplomatic tensions with developing nations who view such measures as 'environmental colonialism'. It suggests that the UK would benefit from mirroring the EU's reporting systems and exploring the linkage of their respective ETSs to reduce bureaucratic friction and economic risk.

The report finds that the DMRE has exhibited significant reluctance to lead South Africa's just energy transition (JET), often viewing it as a 'western imposition'. This resistance is rooted in the historical minerals-energy complex (MEC) and a desire to protect vested interests in the coal sector and black industrialist projects. The document highlights a lack of policy articulation, poor stakeholder engagement, and internal organizational incoherence caused by repeated mergers and splits. It recommends that the successor departments—Mineral and Petroleum Resources, and Electricity and Energy—improve transparency, update the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) regularly, and align the transition with the post-apartheid racial transformation agenda.

The report analyzes the financial support provided by 354 banks to the top 100 steelmakers, finding that $429 billion was provided between 2016 and June 2023. It highlights a critical gap between banks' climate commitments and their continued funding of coal-dependent blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) projects. The document argues that continuing to fund these assets creates significant stranded asset risks, estimated at $554 billion, and urges a shift toward green hydrogen direct reduced iron (DRI) and electric arc furnace (EAF) technologies.

The report examines the use of environmental attribute certificates (EACs) via a book and claim model to scale lower-carbon steel and concrete. It argues that this mechanism allows organizations to fund upstream decarbonization even when they cannot directly procure low-carbon materials. The authors identify critical infrastructure needs—including certification schemes, standards, registries, and reporting guidelines—and share lessons from a Microsoft pilot, noting that the market is currently in early stages with a lack of fit-for-purpose accounting methods.

Africa possesses vast untapped renewable energy resources and critical minerals but faces significant barriers in financing, technology ownership, and value chain integration. While some progress has been made in solar, wind, and hydropower, the continent remains heavily reliant on imports for technology and patents. The document argues for strengthened partnerships, increased climate finance from the Global North, and the development of local manufacturing to ensure a just energy transition.

The evaluation finds that while the GCF has a prominent position in climate finance and a diverse set of instruments, its energy sector approach lacks a clearly articulated strategy and suffers from a mismatch between its stated and actual risk appetite. The portfolio is heavily skewed toward international accredited entities (IAEs) and focuses primarily on renewable energy generation, while underfinancing energy efficiency and emerging technologies like green hydrogen and large-scale storage. Results management is described as underdeveloped, with inconsistent metrics for measuring paradigm shifts and a lack of specific emissions reduction targets for the energy sector. The report recommends that the GCF clarify its role in the global energy transition, increase support for enabling environments and regulatory frameworks, and better align its risk appetite with transformational innovation.

India's heavy industries emit 920 million tonnes of CO2 annually, with steel and cement contributing 18% of total national emissions. The report argues that green electrification is a critical lever for decarbonisation, starting with the transition of current electricity demand to renewable energy sources (RES) by 2030 and moving toward deep electrification and power-to-fuel technologies by 2050. By 2030, meeting the projected 253 TWh industrial electricity demand with RES would require 120 GW of capacity and could avoid 180 Mt of CO2. In the long term, a 'Potential Electrification Case' suggests that electricity's share of industrial energy consumption could triple to 34.5% by 2050, requiring 699 GW of RES capacity and potentially reducing CO2 emissions by 37% (737 Mt) compared to business-as-usual.

The study finds that direct electrification could replace 90% of the energy demand not yet electrified in European industry by 2035. While technologies like heat pumps and electric boilers are mature for low-temperature needs, high-temperature applications in sectors like cement and steel require further development of plasma, shock-wave, and resistance heating. The report highlights that economic barriers—specifically the price gap between electricity and natural gas—and organisational hurdles, such as insufficient grid infrastructure and long equipment lifetimes, are more significant obstacles than technical limitations. It argues that direct electrification is generally more energy-efficient than indirect electrification via hydrogen, particularly for low-temperature applications.

The document explores the application of Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JET-P) in Colombia, analyzing international experiences from South Africa, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Senegal. It identifies a significant financing gap, noting that public investment currently represents only 0.01% of required resources. The brief proposes a country platform to attract international public and private capital, while emphasizing the need for grants over loans to avoid increasing public debt. It prioritizes strategic projects such as energy communities and the phase-out of coal plants, while arguing against financing fossil fuel infrastructure or inefficient subsidies.

The document analyzes the JET-P model as a mechanism to catalyze international and private investment for Colombia's energy transition. It highlights a significant funding gap, noting that public investment currently represents only 0.01% of required resources. By reviewing JET-P experiences in South Africa, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Senegal, the report identifies risks such as increased public debt and the need for transparent, community-led project design. It proposes prioritizing projects like energy communities and the phase-out of coal plants, while warning against financing fossil fuel infrastructure or inefficient consumption subsidies.

The research identifies persistent mismatches between technical vocational skills and industry needs in South Africa's emerging green hydrogen economy (GHE). It advocates for a shift from traditional quantitative forecasting to 'skills foresight' (SF)—a participatory, qualitative approach to anticipating multiple future scenarios. The paper proposes four priority areas: strengthening skills anticipation systems via a dedicated DHET foresight team, enhancing TVET sector responsiveness through futures literacy training, developing a 'transversal skills commons' to ensure workforce resilience, and co-creating a new social compact for post-school education and training (PSET) to elevate the status of vocational qualifications.

The document proposes a shift in South Africa's Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) ecosystem from a jobs-centric approach to one based on 'economic wellbeing,' which includes dignified labour, household care, ecosystem provisioning, and state infrastructure. To support the green hydrogen (GH2) economy, it recommends establishing a skills governance working group, creating green economy skills incubator hubs for experimentation, and adopting innovative financing like social and development impact bonds. Additionally, it advocates for a Universal Basic Dividend (UBD) funded by GH2 project profits to redistribute wealth from common resources and ensure a just energy transition, addressing historical land ownership disparities.