Taking stock of the just transition from coal in South Africa

The document analyzes South Africa's transition from a coal-dependent economy, highlighting the tension between transformative visions of social justice and narrower, market-based decarbonization efforts. It identifies significant challenges, including high regional economic dependence in Mpumalanga, a massive funding gap for the Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET IP), and institutional failures such as state capture and fragmented governance. The report examines the divergent perspectives of trade unions, national and local governments, state-owned utility Eskom, and civil society, while emphasizing the need for procedural justice and bottom-up engagement to ensure the transition does not entrench existing inequalities.

• The concept of 'just transition' in South Africa is used by different actors to promote divergent interests, ranging from transformative socio-economic change to narrow decarbonization that may entrench the existing political and economic status quo.
• Coal remains a critical regional economic driver, particularly in Mpumalanga, where the industry accounts for 84% of the national economic value added by coal and 85% of coal employment as of 2022.
• There is a substantial funding gap for the transition; the Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET IP) requires approximately ZAR 1.5 trillion between 2023 and 2027, while most international support via the JETP consists of concessional loans rather than grants.
• Institutional barriers include 'state capture,' where private interests illicitly influence state decision-making, and a fragmented governance structure where multiple departments have overlapping mandates over the coal value chain.
• Environmental risks are severe due to at least 400 abandoned coal mines, with a lack of transparent funding and enforcement for rehabilitation, often bypassed by companies using 'care and maintenance' status.
• Trade unions, such as NUMSA and NUM, generally oppose the privatization of the energy sector and the pace of coal phase-down if it is driven by environmental concerns without guaranteed worker support and reskilling.
• Eskom is attempting to transition its business model from a coal-focused monopoly to a liberalized system, including the repowering and repurposing of plants like the Komati power station.
• Civil society and youth organizations advocate for a more inclusive and transformative transition that addresses food security, energy poverty, and the rights of marginalized groups, often challenging the use of gas as a transition fuel.
• The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) has historically promoted a narrower 'just energy transition' and has advocated for 'clean coal' technologies like CCUS, despite their uncertain commercial viability.
• There is a significant disconnect between top-down national energy planning and bottom-up local needs, with stakeholders in coal regions often excluded from decision-making and information.

APA

Strambo, C., Patel, M., & Maimele, S. (2024). Taking stock of the just transition from coal in South Africa. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/just-transition-coal-south-africa.pdf

Chicago

Strambo, Claudia, Muhammed Patel, and Seutame Maimele. Taking stock of the just transition from coal in South Africa. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2024. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/just-transition-coal-south-africa.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Strambo |first1=Claudia |last2=Patel |first2=Muhammed |last3=Maimele |first3=Seutame |title=Taking stock of the just transition from coal in South Africa |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=August 2024 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/just-transition-coal-south-africa.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{strambo2024taking, author = {Strambo, Claudia and Patel, Muhammed and Maimele, Seutame}, title = {{Taking stock of the just transition from coal in South Africa}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2024}, month = aug, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/just-transition-coal-south-africa.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }