Training in Uncertainty Skills: Foresight for a Just Green Hydrogen Transition

This research paper argues that South Africa's current skills planning system is inadequate for the emerging green hydrogen economy (GHE) due to a reliance on quantitative data and a lack of anticipatory capacity. The author advocates for the integration of strategic foresight (SF) and skills foresight (SF) into the post-school education and training (PSET) system, specifically within technical vocational education and training (TVET). The paper proposes four priority areas: strengthening skills anticipation systems, enhancing TVET sector responsiveness, developing transversal skills, and fostering a renewed education-related social compact to bridge the gap between TVET and universities.

• South Africa's current skills planning system suffers from limited anticipatory capacity and inadequate coordination, relying too heavily on quantitative data like econometric forecasts and surveys, which have a narrow window of validity.
• There is a persistent mismatch between the technical vocational skills provided and the needs of the green hydrogen economy (GHE), with employers specifically noting a shortage of hydrogen fuel transporters.
• The Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET) and the Human Resource Development Council (HRDC) should establish a dedicated foresight team, funded by the National Skills Fund (NSF), to embed strategic foresight into green skills planning.
• To improve TVET responsiveness, the DHET should provide futures literacy training and collaborative workshops on skills foresight for decision makers, empowering lecturers to conduct iterative experiments and skills prototypes beyond the standard curriculum.
• The paper recommends the creation of a 'transversal skills commons' and a Cross-Sectoral TVET Advisory Board for Green Transversal Skills within the HRDC to manage both formal and informal skills development and assess credentialing systems.
• The author proposes using participatory futures dialogues and 'futures literacy labs' to co-create a new social compact for post-school education and training (PSET), aiming to address the societal bias that views TVET qualifications as inferior to university degrees.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2024). Training in Uncertainty Skills: Foresight for a Just Green Hydrogen Transition. https://saiia.org.za/research/training-in-uncertainty-skills-foresight-for-a-just-green-hydrogen-transition/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Training in Uncertainty Skills: Foresight for a Just Green Hydrogen Transition. 2024. https://saiia.org.za/research/training-in-uncertainty-skills-foresight-for-a-just-green-hydrogen-transition/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Training in Uncertainty Skills: Foresight for a Just Green Hydrogen Transition |date=27 May 2024 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/training-in-uncertainty-skills-foresight-for-a-just-green-hydrogen-transition/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2024training, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Training in Uncertainty Skills: Foresight for a Just Green Hydrogen Transition}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2024}, month = may, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/training-in-uncertainty-skills-foresight-for-a-just-green-hydrogen-transition/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }