Training in Uncertainty Skills: Foresight for a Just Green Hydrogen Transition

The research identifies persistent mismatches between technical vocational skills and industry needs in South Africa's emerging green hydrogen economy (GHE). It advocates for a shift from traditional quantitative forecasting to 'skills foresight' (SF)—a participatory, qualitative approach to anticipating multiple future scenarios. The paper proposes four priority areas: strengthening skills anticipation systems via a dedicated DHET foresight team, enhancing TVET sector responsiveness through futures literacy training, developing a 'transversal skills commons' to ensure workforce resilience, and co-creating a new social compact for post-school education and training (PSET) to elevate the status of vocational qualifications.

• South Africa's current skills planning system suffers from limited anticipatory capacity and inadequate coordination, relying too heavily on quantitative data and employer input, which often fails to predict long-term labour market demands for the green hydrogen economy.
• To bridge the gap between short-term planning and long-term goals, the Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET) and the Human Resource Development Council (HRDC) should establish a dedicated, NSF-funded foresight team to identify future threats and opportunities in green skills.
• The TVET sector is hindered by a top-down governance model and centralised curriculum control, creating a tension between standardisation and the need for rapid responsiveness to technological changes in the green hydrogen sector.
• Because the establishment of a local green hydrogen economy is not guaranteed due to geographic distances from markets and water scarcity, there is an urgent need to develop 'transversal competencies'—versatile skills like digital proficiency and critical thinking—to ensure workforce resilience.
• The paper proposes the creation of a 'transversal skills commons' and a Cross-Sectoral TVET Advisory Board for Green Transversal Skills within the HRDC to coordinate the recognition of both formal and informal skills.
• There is a systemic bias where TVET qualifications are viewed as inferior to university degrees; the document suggests using participatory futures dialogues to co-create a new social compact for post-school education and training (PSET) to rectify these disparities.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2024). Training in Uncertainty Skills: Foresight for a Just Green Hydrogen Transition. https://saiia.org.za/research/training-in-uncertainty-skills-foresight-for-a-just-green-hydrogen-transition/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Training in Uncertainty Skills: Foresight for a Just Green Hydrogen Transition. 2024. https://saiia.org.za/research/training-in-uncertainty-skills-foresight-for-a-just-green-hydrogen-transition/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Training in Uncertainty Skills: Foresight for a Just Green Hydrogen Transition |date=27 May 2024 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/training-in-uncertainty-skills-foresight-for-a-just-green-hydrogen-transition/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2024training, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Training in Uncertainty Skills: Foresight for a Just Green Hydrogen Transition}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2024}, month = may, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/training-in-uncertainty-skills-foresight-for-a-just-green-hydrogen-transition/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }