Search Climate Insights Directory

The briefing examines the tense pre-electoral environment in Angola, highlighting accusations of election rigging by the MPLA and the potential for social unrest driven by youth and war veterans. It notes the limited influence of SADC and the muted response of international partners like the US and EU, which are driven by strategic and economic interests, particularly oil. The document also emphasizes the need for Angola to diversify its oil-dependent economy to ensure long-term stability.

Africa is experiencing rapid population growth and urbanisation, with a projected population of over 1.8 billion by 2035. While the continent shows a positive overall trend, growth is heterogeneous and often outpaced by population increases, leading to a projected rise in the number of people living in extreme poverty. The report highlights a 'demographic dividend' that remains delayed due to high fertility rates, and notes that while global democratic trends are declining, popular support for democracy in Africa remains strong despite fragile foundations. Security is shifting from large-scale interstate conflicts toward more complex, lower-fatality violence, including urban riots and terrorism. Economic growth is hindered by a lack of structural transformation and a significant infrastructure deficit, particularly in basic services like water and sanitation, which the report argues are more critical for poverty reduction than traditional trade infrastructure.

The document evaluates Nigeria's macroeconomic recovery strategies following the COVID-19 pandemic, analyzing their compatibility with the nation's goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. While the National Development Plan (NDP) and Economic Sustainability Plan (ESP) include green initiatives—such as solar electrification and climate-smart agriculture—the author notes a lack of clear implementation tracking and a persistent reliance on oil-led growth. The brief recommends removing fossil fuel subsidies, expanding blended finance, and prioritizing gender-responsive climate-smart agriculture to ensure a sustainable green recovery.

The paper compares the macroeconomic resilience of Nigeria and Ghana, noting that while both face vulnerabilities to commodity price fluctuations and climate shocks, Ghana's more diversified economy has generally provided greater resilience. Nigeria's heavy reliance on oil makes it more susceptible to external shocks, leading to recessions in 2016 and 2020. Both countries struggle with significant public debt and fiscal deficits, often resorting to borrowing to finance government expenditure during crises. The authors recommend that Nigeria diversify its economy away from oil and improve fiscal management, while Ghana should expand its export base and accelerate the rollout of renewable energy to improve energy security.

The Kuwait Energy Outlook analyzes the country's heavy reliance on oil and gas for power and desalination, projecting energy demand and supply to 2035. Under a Business-as-Usual scenario, the report finds that while Kuwait plans to increase natural gas and renewable energy in its power mix, per capita emissions and energy demand remain among the highest globally. The report highlights critical challenges in the transport sector, where unchecked growth in oil demand is projected, and in the buildings sector, where energy inefficiency persists. It recommends the establishment of a 'National Champion' to coordinate energy strategy, the implementation of pricing reforms to reduce subsidies, and the improvement of national energy data collection.

The document analyzes the socio-economic dependence of Barrancabermeja on the oil industry and explores pathways for economic diversification to mitigate the risks of the energy transition. It identifies key opportunities in regenerative agriculture, low-emission hydrogen, and carbon capture, while warning that abrupt reductions in oil production could destabilize the local economy.

The policy brief analyzes the vulnerability of Paipa's economy to the energy transition, noting that nearly one-third of its production and employment depends on coal. It uses an input-output model to demonstrate that the cessation of coal-fired power generation could contract the municipal economy by 78.6%. To counter this, the report recommends diversifying into tourism, traditional manufactures (such as Paipa cheese), and high-value agriculture (potatoes and blackberries), suggesting that a 2.3% annual growth increase in these sectors between 2026 and 2035 could offset the losses from the coal industry.

Barrancabermeja faces a high structural dependence on the hydrocarbon sector, particularly the Ecopetrol refinery, which creates fiscal and labor risks. While gasoline demand may remain stable until 2035, the document warns of a structural crisis thereafter. It recommends a 'very rapid transition' policy to accelerate economic reconversion into bio-industrial services using oil palm biomass, ecotourism, and the creation of a Free Trade Zone to ensure a just economic transition.

The document outlines a strategy for a just energy transition in Barrancabermeja, Colombia, a city where 70% of the economy is linked to the petroleum industry. It identifies key risks, such as employment loss and environmental preservation, and proposes diversifying the local economy through regenerative agriculture, nature tourism, renewable energy (solar and agrivoltaics), and the production of renewable fuels like green diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

The document uses a departmental input-output model to project that Colombia could lose up to 448,000 jobs by 2035 due to decreased coal, oil, and gas production. It highlights a significant disparity in impact: 'Vulnerable' departments (Arauca, Casanare, Cesar, La Guajira, and Meta) face severe production drops (32%-38%) and job losses that cannot be offset by renewable energy projects alone. While 'Large Economies' and 'Limited Affectation' departments also face job losses due to interdepartmental linkages, they possess higher potential for compensation through structural changes in agro-industry and nature tourism. The brief argues that a 'just transition' requires a structural economic shift, specifically proposing the creation of food manufacturing clusters and local-content requirements for renewable energy imports to maximize domestic employment.

The analysis indicates that India can achieve its 2070 net-zero target without compromising economic development, though the transition will create uneven regional and sectoral impacts. Key challenges include the need for economic diversification in fossil fuel-dependent regions, increased demand for skilled workers in specialized manufacturing, and the risk of exacerbating vulnerabilities in sectors like construction. Additionally, the decline in fossil fuel tax revenues will necessitate new public revenue mobilization strategies.

The document examines the economic and social risks facing middle-income developing countries as they shift away from oil and gas production. It highlights the potential for significant government revenue loss and job displacement, particularly for indirect and induced workers in geographically concentrated areas. The paper recommends place-based economic diversification and targeted just transition strategies to mitigate these impacts.