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This fact sheet defines green industrial policy (GIP) as government strategies to promote sustainable industries and phase out greenhouse gas emitters. It highlights the success of China's electric vehicle industry as a model for GIP but warns that developing countries face significant financing, skills, and technological barriers. The document emphasizes the role of the G20 in shaping global GIP principles, particularly under South Africa's agenda, which focuses on leveraging critical minerals to drive inclusive economic growth and manufacturing in Africa.

The Mineral Resources Development Bill 2025 (MRDB) seeks to amend South Africa's mining laws to boost the economy, speed up project approvals, and regulate artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM). While the government aims to increase local mineral processing ('beneficiation') and create jobs, the document highlights significant risks for rural communities, including the lack of a right to give or deny consent to projects and the absence of strict penalties for companies that fail to meet Social and Labour Plan (SLP) commitments.

The document analyzes the surging demand for critical minerals driven by the energy transition, the environmental impacts of mining, and the strategic trade policies developing countries can employ to add value to their mineral resources while ensuring climate resilience.

Since April 2025, the United States has imposed high tariffs on several ASEAN nations, leading these countries to prioritize negotiation and diversification over retaliation. While Vietnam and Thailand faced the highest tariffs (up to 46% and 36% respectively), most members are balancing individual bilateral talks with a coordinated regional response led by Malaysia as the 2025 ASEAN chair. Strategies include increasing U.S. imports of energy and aircraft, leveraging the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and implementing domestic stimulus packages, such as Thailand's USD 15 billion fund, to protect local industries.

The document analyzes the effects of Executive Order 14257, which introduced a 10% universal tariff and higher country-specific tariffs (11% to 50%) on imports to the U.S. While mineral-exporting nations may find relief through exemptions for critical minerals, countries like Lesotho and Madagascar face severe economic risks, particularly in textiles. The authors discuss the precarious future of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and advocate for a coordinated continental strategy via the African Union and the African Continental Free Trade Area to mitigate these trade disruptions.

Deep-sea mining targets critical minerals like cobalt and nickel from polymetallic nodules, sulfides, and crusts, primarily in international waters such as the Clarion-Clipperton Zone. While proponents argue it can meet surging demand for the energy transition and avoid some terrestrial mining harms, the practice faces significant opposition due to risks of species extinction, disruption of the ocean's carbon sink, and threats to food security in small island states. Commercial exploitation remains stalled as the International Seabed Authority (ISA) has failed to reach a consensus on regulations as of July 2025, though some companies may attempt to bypass this via U.S. domestic law. Alternatives such as scaling up recycling and shifting to LFP or sodium-ion batteries could reduce the necessity of seabed extraction.

The paper examines how the geopolitical contest between the US and China over critical minerals creates a strategic window for African countries to diversify investors and build domestic green value chains.

The United States faces significant vulnerabilities in its critical mineral supply chain, relying on imports for 100% of 12 critical minerals and 50% or more for another 28 as of 2024. While the U.S. possesses deposits of many essential minerals, domestic production is hindered by permitting processes that average 16 years and the higher cost of domestic operations compared to overseas production. The document highlights the environmental risks of open-pit mining—including greenhouse gas emissions and groundwater contamination—and the specific impact on Native American reservations, where a high percentage of nickel, lithium, and cobalt resources are located. It explores secondary recovery from waste like coal ash and desalination brine as a sustainable alternative, though these methods currently face economic and technical barriers. Recent U.S. policy efforts include the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and 2025 executive orders aimed at expediting permitting and exploring deep-sea mining.

The document analyzes how federal clean energy incentives have driven over $321 billion in investments across the U.S. between Q2 2022 and Q1 2025, highlighting that these investments are heavily concentrated in Southern and Western states and Republican-held congressional districts. It argues that rolling back these incentives would disproportionately harm these regions and jeopardize significant outstanding investments in states like Louisiana and North Dakota, as well as major projects in emerging hubs like Southern Arizona and the Southeast.

The report details the evolving role of Indigenous Peoples in the Rio Conventions, highlighting a shift from being viewed as stakeholders to recognized rights holders. Key 2024 achievements include the creation of a permanent Subsidiary Body on Article 8(j) under the CBD, the extension of the Local Communities and Indigenous Peoples Platform (LCIPP) mandate under the UNFCCC, and the establishment of two separate caucuses for Indigenous Peoples and local communities under the UNCCD. Despite these procedural gains, the report identifies persistent challenges, including limited direct access to funding and the ongoing tension over the use of human rights language and terminology in international environmental governance.

The research paper proposes a strategic partnership between South Africa and the EU in the critical minerals sector as an alternative to the unpredictable diplomacy of the US administration. It highlights the complementary nature of their interests, noting that South Africa is a top producer of platinum group metals, manganese, and chromite, while the EU seeks to diversify its supply chains via the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA). The author identifies key challenges to implementation, including tensions over local value addition, private sector engagement, and the transparency of mineral agreements. The paper recommends that South Africa address structural infrastructure issues and that the EU provide targeted support for in-country beneficiation and ESG implementation to move from negotiation to tangible projects.

Electric vehicle adoption is accelerating globally, with many markets passing critical tipping points. In the United States, the total cost of ownership for light-duty EVs is now lower than for gas-powered cars, despite a projected reduction in savings after September 30, 2025, due to the removal of the federal tax credit. Electric medium- and heavy-duty (MHD) trucks are trending toward cost parity with diesel, with some segments expected to reach it by 2028. Furthermore, advancements in battery recycling could potentially eliminate the need for additional mining by 2040 as minerals enter a circular supply chain.

The Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment (CAPE) opposes uranium mining in Nova Scotia, citing risks of radon gas release, groundwater contamination, and the creation of long-term radioactive waste. The document disputes industry claims that mining is necessary for medical isotopes or climate goals, arguing that Nova Scotia's high population density and precipitation make it unsuitable for mining compared to Saskatchewan.

The document details the ecological significance of the Hudson-James Bay Lowlands as a critical carbon sink and the threats posed by the 'Ring of Fire' mining projects. It highlights the mobilization of the Friends of the Attawapiskat River, who advocate for Indigenous-led conservation, the enforcement of free, prior, and informed consent (FPIC), and the recognition of Indigenous Protected and Conserved Areas (IPCAs) to safeguard biodiversity and climate stability.

The document outlines how the shift to renewable energy creates socio-ecological risks through expanded critical mineral mining and the rise of oil and gas decommissioning. It highlights environmental degradation, such as water pollution in China and orphan wells in the US, and explains how these issues can escalate into regional conflicts or local violence, as seen in Papua New Guinea. The author argues that current approaches often separate human rights from environmental impacts and recommends integrating these perspectives, increasing data transparency on site locations and health impacts, and sharing decommissioning best practices between experienced and novice nations.

South Africa faces significant trade risks as its carbon-intensive export model clashes with global net zero targets and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs). Approximately 78% of its exports are sold to countries with net zero targets, and hundreds of thousands of jobs are exposed to CBAMs in the EU and UK. High embodied CO2 emissions in the basic metals and automotive sectors, combined with a carbon-intensive electricity grid, threaten competitiveness. However, the document notes South Africa's potential to pivot using its critical minerals and renewable energy resources, provided that international financial commitments like the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) are fulfilled.

The document examines how wide-ranging tariffs, including those imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), increase the cost of essential materials like steel, aluminum, and copper, thereby raising prices for energy infrastructure and slowing the deployment of clean energy technologies. It highlights that while the administration seeks 'energy dominance,' these trade policies create investment uncertainty and risk ceding leadership in next-generation technologies—such as advanced nuclear, geothermal, and batteries—to competitors like China. The authors recommend replacing blunt tariffs with targeted, time-bound measures paired with robust industrial policy and strategic alliances to ensure long-term competitiveness.

Canada possesses significant reserves of six priority critical minerals—cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, nickel, and rare earth elements—essential for the global energy transition. However, current investment is insufficient to meet a projected domestic demand of over $16 billion per year by 2040. The report identifies three primary risks deterring investors: financial volatility, environmental liabilities, and risks to Indigenous rights. To address these, the authors recommend that the federal government implement financial risk-sharing agreements (such as contracts for difference and equity investments), scale up capacity-building and capital access for Indigenous communities, and mandate global environmental standards for tailings management. The report warns that attempting to speed up project approvals by cutting environmental or consultation requirements is likely to backfire by increasing local opposition and litigation.

The report argues that while Canada has a competitive advantage due to its clean electricity grids, the mining sector's emissions are rising as mines deepen and ore grades decline. It identifies three primary barriers to decarbonization: a lack of market demand for 'green' minerals, fragmented traceability infrastructure, and technological gaps in open-pit mining. The author proposes a policy toolkit including emission-intensity criteria for funding, support for R&D in emerging technologies like direct lithium extraction, and the maintenance of carbon pricing systems to incentivize the transition.

The report argues that Canada can capitalize on the global energy transition by increasing production of cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, graphite, and rare earth elements. To achieve this, it recommends that the federal government implement financial risk-sharing agreements to mitigate price volatility, support Indigenous self-determination and equity ownership, strengthen provincial mining regulations to meet international environmental standards, and avoid shortening regulatory reviews by cutting environmental or consultation safeguards.