The China-US Trade War and Trump’s Critical Mineral Diplomacy: An Opportunity for Green Technology Transition in Africa

This research paper examines how the trade war between the US and China, alongside President Trump's critical mineral diplomacy, creates a strategic window for African nations to transition from raw material exporters to green technology manufacturing hubs. It argues that countries rich in minerals like cobalt and lithium can leverage geopolitical competition to secure technology transfer, domestic value addition, and diversified investment portfolios.

• The US-China trade war and President Trump's critical mineral diplomacy are restructuring global supply chains, providing African nations with an opportunity to move beyond being raw material sources and become competitive clean-tech manufacturing hubs.
• The US strategy aims to eliminate reliance on China for critical industrial inputs and manufacturing, which has led to tariffs on over USD 400 billion of annual Chinese exports to the US and impacted African countries dependent on Chinese mining investments.
• Sub-Saharan Africa holds significant global reserves of critical minerals: the DR Congo and Guinea lead in cobalt (66.5%) and bauxite (28.9%) respectively; South Africa leads in manganese (49.3%) and platinum-group metals (53.3%); and Zimbabwe is a key source of lithium (9%).
• The DR Congo has become a primary geopolitical battlefield through a 'Ukraine-style' agreement that grants the US access to cobalt reserves in exchange for support in resolving conflict in eastern Congo, challenging China's dominance in the sector.
• China is expected to shift its investment strategy in Africa from hard infrastructure (the 'Angola model') toward digital infrastructure, green energy, and agricultural mechanization, as signaled during the 2024 FOCAC ministerial conference.
• To avoid dependency and exploitative relations, African governments should diversify investors beyond the US and China, targeting emerging partners like India, the UAE, Canada, and Switzerland, while mandating local value addition and technology transfer.
• India has significantly expanded its investment in Africa, totaling USD 22.2 billion in 2023, which is three times the investment from the US and nearly nine times that of China.
• African nations can implement local processing mandates to ensure a just transition, citing Namibia's 2023 ban on raw lithium exports and Zimbabwe's in-country refining requirements as examples.

APA

Ngundu, M. (2025). The China-US Trade War and Trump’s Critical Mineral Diplomacy: An Opportunity for Green Technology Transition in Africa. Africa Policy Research Institute. https://afripoli.org/the-china-us-trade-war-and-trumps-critical-mineral-diplomacy-an-opportunity-for-green-technology-transition-in-africa

Chicago

Ngundu, Marvellous. The China-US Trade War and Trump’s Critical Mineral Diplomacy: An Opportunity for Green Technology Transition in Africa. Africa Policy Research Institute, 2025. https://afripoli.org/the-china-us-trade-war-and-trumps-critical-mineral-diplomacy-an-opportunity-for-green-technology-transition-in-africa.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ngundu |first1=Marvellous |title=The China-US Trade War and Trump’s Critical Mineral Diplomacy: An Opportunity for Green Technology Transition in Africa |publisher=Africa Policy Research Institute |date=21 July 2025 |url=https://afripoli.org/the-china-us-trade-war-and-trumps-critical-mineral-diplomacy-an-opportunity-for-green-technology-transition-in-africa |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ngundu2025chinaus, author = {Ngundu, Marvellous}, title = {{The China-US Trade War and Trump’s Critical Mineral Diplomacy: An Opportunity for Green Technology Transition in Africa}}, institution = {Africa Policy Research Institute}, year = {2025}, month = jul, url = {https://afripoli.org/the-china-us-trade-war-and-trumps-critical-mineral-diplomacy-an-opportunity-for-green-technology-transition-in-africa}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }