The China-US Trade War and Trump’s Critical Mineral Diplomacy: An Opportunity for Green Technology Transition in Africa

The paper examines how the geopolitical contest between the US and China over critical minerals creates a strategic window for African countries to diversify investors and build domestic green value chains.

• The US strategy under President Trump aims to reduce reliance on China for critical industrial inputs by reconfiguring global supply chains, which has resulted in tariffs on over USD 400 billion of annual Chinese exports.
• Sub-Saharan Africa holds significant global reserves of minerals essential for the green transition: the DR Congo and Guinea lead in cobalt (66.5%) and bauxite (28.9%) respectively, South Africa leads in manganese (49.3%) and platinum-group metals (53.3%), and Zimbabwe is a key source of lithium (9%).
• The DR Congo is a primary geopolitical battlefield for mineral control, evidenced by a 'Ukraine-style' agreement where the DRC provides the US access to cobalt reserves in exchange for support in resolving conflict in eastern Congo.
• China is expected to shift its African investment strategy from 'hard infrastructure' (the 'Angola model') toward digital infrastructure, green energy, and agricultural mechanisation to cushion the impact of the trade war.
• To avoid dependency and improve bargaining power, African nations should diversify investors beyond the US and China, noting that India's 2023 capital investments (USD 22.2 billion) were three times those of the US and nearly nine times those of China.
• African governments are urged to implement policies that mandate local value addition and just transition safeguards, citing Namibia's 2023 ban on raw lithium exports and Zimbabwe's refining requirements as models.

APA

Ngundu, M. (2025). The China-US Trade War and Trump’s Critical Mineral Diplomacy: An Opportunity for Green Technology Transition in Africa. Africa Policy Research Institute. https://afripoli.org/the-china-us-trade-war-and-trumps-critical-mineral-diplomacy-an-opportunity-for-green-technology-transition-in-africa

Chicago

Ngundu, Marvellous. The China-US Trade War and Trump’s Critical Mineral Diplomacy: An Opportunity for Green Technology Transition in Africa. Africa Policy Research Institute, 2025. https://afripoli.org/the-china-us-trade-war-and-trumps-critical-mineral-diplomacy-an-opportunity-for-green-technology-transition-in-africa.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ngundu |first1=Marvellous |title=The China-US Trade War and Trump’s Critical Mineral Diplomacy: An Opportunity for Green Technology Transition in Africa |publisher=Africa Policy Research Institute |date=21 July 2025 |url=https://afripoli.org/the-china-us-trade-war-and-trumps-critical-mineral-diplomacy-an-opportunity-for-green-technology-transition-in-africa |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ngundu2025chinaus, author = {Ngundu, Marvellous}, title = {{The China-US Trade War and Trump’s Critical Mineral Diplomacy: An Opportunity for Green Technology Transition in Africa}}, institution = {Africa Policy Research Institute}, year = {2025}, month = jul, url = {https://afripoli.org/the-china-us-trade-war-and-trumps-critical-mineral-diplomacy-an-opportunity-for-green-technology-transition-in-africa}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }