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The document asserts that private finance continues to bankroll the fossil fuel industry despite net-zero alliances, which have largely collapsed or been gutted due to industry backlash. It calls for regulators to mandate climate transition plans, exclude fossil fuel assets from central bank collateral frameworks, and pass legislation to choke off funding for fossil fuels. While some progress is noted in coal restrictions and specific European institutional investor pledges, the author maintains that binding regulation is essential to ensure private capital accelerates rather than obstructs the global energy transition.

In 2025, wind and solar energy reached a record 22% of Türkiye's electricity generation, though coal remained the largest source at 34%. While the country has a massive 33 GW battery project pipeline that exceeds any single EU nation, it still trails European averages for renewable energy share. Persistent drought has significantly reduced hydroelectric output, increasing reliance on natural gas imports by an estimated $1.8 billion annually. A new purchase guarantee for domestic coal plants starting in 2026 may further increase coal generation, potentially contradicting the country's 2035 target of 120 GW of wind and solar capacity.

The 2026 Middle East crisis, triggered by conflict in Iran, caused a spike in oil and gas prices and led some Southeast Asian nations to switch from gas to coal for electricity. However, the report argues that coal is not insulated from geopolitical shocks and carries high hidden health and climate costs. Analysis shows that replacing planned gas expansion with solar and storage would save ASEAN USD 4 billion by 2030, whereas replacing it with coal would increase costs. Despite this, ASEAN coal demand is projected to rise by 25% by 2030, driven largely by Indonesia and Vietnam, though Indonesia has committed to phasing out fossil fuels within 10 to 15 years.

The report forecasts that Africa's energy demand will rise significantly due to population growth and economic expansion, with the 'Combined scenario' projecting demand 26% above the 'Current Path' by 2050. While production is expected to increase—particularly through renewables—demand will still outpace supply, increasing reliance on energy imports. Despite a rapid transition away from fossil fuels, Africa's share of global CO2-equivalent emissions from fossil fuels is projected to rise to 10.4% by 2050 in the Combined scenario.

The briefing compares three pathways for a just transition from fossil fuels. It notes that while the UNFCCC provides a universal framework for emissions, it lacks explicit obligations for fossil fuel production. Brazil's COP30 'Roadmap' serves as a non-binding political dialogue to identify transition barriers. The proposed Fossil Fuel Treaty aims to fill governance gaps through binding commitments to end new project expansion, implement science-based phase-outs, and provide financial support for affected communities.

The document details Indonesia's strategic position in the global minerals market, particularly nickel, driven by aggressive downstream processing policies and export bans. It highlights the economic significance of mining (11% of GDP) and the associated environmental costs, including rising energy-sector emissions and deforestation. Socially, it notes significant gender disparities in the mining workforce and the prevalence of artisanal mining risks.

The report analyzes global carbon emissions, noting that 2023 saw record levels of 36.1 billion tons of CO2 equivalent from fossil fuels. It highlights the dominance of a few producers and the significant impact of coal and methane. While China and the EU are pursuing decarbonization, the US experience fluctuates with political administrations. The report forecasts a peak in emissions by 2037/8, but warns that atmospheric CO2 concentrations could reach 551 ppm by 2063, potentially leading to a 3°C temperature rise. Africa is identified as particularly vulnerable, facing increasing emissions from population growth and significant forest loss, with 100 million hectares cleared over three decades.

In 2025, the U.S. generated a record 853,210 GWh from solar and wind, accounting for 19% of total electricity generation. This represents a more than threefold increase since 2016, with solar generation growing more than seven-fold and wind doubling. Despite this growth, the document notes that the U.S. faces new challenges, including the repeal of clean energy tax credits via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 and the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in 2026. These policy shifts, combined with rising electricity demand from data centers, are projected to increase heat-trapping pollution and raise average annual household energy costs by over $280 by 2035.

Solar growth in South Asia is reducing the power sector's exposure to global fossil fuel price shocks, though the pace varies by country. In Pakistan, rooftop solar generation grew from 7.7 TWh in 2022 to 36.6 TWh in 2025, saving an estimated USD 12 billion in LNG imports. In contrast, Bangladesh increased its reliance on coal, with generation rising from 7.87 TWh to 30.06 TWh between 2022 and 2025. While the power sector is diversifying, the region remains highly dependent on imported oil and gas for transport and industry. The report suggests that electrifying these end-uses and expanding regional electricity trade—with India as a hub—are essential to further cutting import costs and improving energy security.

Vietnam's solar power generation helps the country avoid approximately USD 594 million in fossil fuel import costs during the current energy price surge driven by the Iran war. While Vietnam leads Southeast Asia in solar and wind shares, it continues to prioritize coal and gas in its long-term power planning, increasing its vulnerability to global price shocks.

Indonesia's energy subsidies peaked at IDR 886.1 trillion in 2022 and remained high in 2024 at IDR 713.5 trillion, with fossil fuel support accounting for 88.9% of the total. The report highlights three dominant costs: electricity compensation for the state utility PLN, 3-kg LPG subsidies, and fuel compensation payments to Pertamina. These measures often benefit higher-income households and create a 'net negative carbon price' that offsets the national carbon pricing scheme. While electric vehicle (EV) incentives have surged since 2020, they remain negligible compared to fossil fuel support. The document recommends a phased reform plan to redirect spending toward renewable energy, targeted social protection, and induction cooking to reduce import dependency and emissions.

The report inventories 130 support measures across six energy types in Indonesia: oil and gas, coal, electricity, renewable energy, biofuels, and electric vehicles (EVs). It details various mechanisms including direct financial transfers, tax exemptions, and price regulations. For the period FY 2021 to FY 2024, 27% of these measures were quantified using official government data, while 64% remained unquantified due to data limitations. The annex provides specific legislative references and nominal values in IDR and USD for each measure.

In 2025, the EU power sector reached a tipping point as wind and solar generated 30.1% of electricity, surpassing all fossil fuel sources at 29.0%. Solar generation hit a record 369 TWh, growing by 20.1% over 2024, while coal fell to a historic low of 9.2% of the mix. Despite a slight increase in gas power generation and associated import costs, renewables provided nearly half of the EU's electricity (47.7%), with solar output helping to offset low wind and hydro production caused by unusual weather in early 2025.

The report argues that the United States can meet surging electricity demand from AI data centers using clean energy while phasing out fossil fuels, provided that stronger state and federal policies are implemented. It warns that under current policies, data center growth will increase reliance on gas and coal, leading to higher emissions and significant costs for ratepayers. Conversely, adopting clean energy policies—such as restoring federal tax credits and implementing carbon-free electricity standards—could save trillions of dollars in climate and health damages, far outweighing the costs of the energy transition.

In 2025, the EU reached a milestone where wind and solar generated more electricity (30.1%) than all fossil fuel sources (29.0%) for the first time on record. Solar generation grew by 20.1% to reach a record 369 TWh, while coal fell to a historic low of 9.2% of the mix. Despite this, gas generation rose by 8% due to low hydro output, increasing the EU power sector's gas import bill by 16% to €32 billion. The report highlights the role of a growing battery pipeline—exceeding 10 GW of large batteries in 2025—in reducing reliance on expensive gas and mitigating the curtailment of clean power, particularly in Germany.

The document outlines Australia's position as a major global mining hub, specifically highlighting its dominance in iron ore and its growing role in critical minerals like lithium. It details the sector's significant contribution to national GDP and government revenue, while noting the industry's heavy reliance on fossil fuels for energy. The report also examines the social dimensions of the workforce, including gender disparities, and the regulatory environment, particularly in Western Australia.

Viet Nam, Indonesia, and the Philippines collectively drive nearly 60% of ASEAN’s power demand and emissions, with a heavy historical reliance on coal. While coal still dominates their energy mixes, all three nations are pivoting toward clean energy, attracting $4.6 billion in investment in 2024. Each country aims for renewables to exceed 50% of their installed capacity mix by 2030–2034. Viet Nam has led the region in new wind and solar generation, the Philippines operates a fully liberalised electricity market to attract FDI, and Indonesia is leveraging its mineral industrialisation to build an electric vehicle ecosystem while planning significant solar expansions.

Following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions, Russia has pivoted its fossil fuel exports toward Asia. While this has partially offset revenue losses from the European market, the report argues that Russia remains locked in a hydrocarbon-centric model that is increasingly misaligned with the decarbonisation trajectories of its primary Asian customers. China and India have leveraged discounted Russian oil and coal to support economic growth while simultaneously diversifying their energy portfolios and expanding renewable capacity. Vietnam has seen modest growth in Russian coal and nascent LNG trade, balancing energy security with sustainability goals. The report highlights structural bottlenecks, such as limited rail capacity for coal and the risks of a 'shadow fleet' for oil, as significant constraints on Russia's long-term export viability.

Reclaim Finance and 19 youth and student organizations have issued an open letter to Agirc-Arrco, ERAFP, and the Fonds de réserve pour les retraites, urging them to stop funding the development of coal, oil, and gas. The signatories argue that continued investment in fossil fuel companies, such as TotalEnergies and BP, and the use of asset managers like BlackRock, contradicts scientific goals to limit global warming to 1.5°C and threatens the future stability, health, and security of young people.

The Climate Action Tracker reports that global warming projections have remained stagnant at 2.6°C for four consecutive years due to a lack of ambitious 2030 and 2035 climate targets. While the Paris Agreement has helped reduce projected warming from 3.6°C in 2015 to 2.6°C today, and renewable energy surpassed coal in electricity generation in 2025, continued fossil fuel expansion and policy rollbacks in the United States threaten to offset these gains. The gap between current targets and the 1.5°C pathway is expected to increase to 31 GtCO₂e by 2035.