Solar growth in South Asia has cut fuel imports for power but deeper reductions need electrification and regional grids

This report by Ember examines how the growth of solar power in South Asia is reducing the power sector's exposure to global fossil fuel price shocks, while highlighting that broader fossil fuel dependence persists in transport and industry. The authors argue that further reductions in fuel imports require the electrification of non-power sectors and enhanced regional grid integration, with India serving as a central hub for electricity trade.

• Solar power growth has decreased fossil fuel exposure in several South Asian power sectors, a trend accelerated by the 2022 global energy crisis. In Pakistan, rooftop solar adoption grew rapidly due to higher electricity tariffs and low-cost Chinese panels, with generation increasing from 7.7 TWh in 2022 to 36.6 TWh in 2025 (an average annual growth rate of about 68%). This shift saved an estimated USD 12 billion in LNG imports, though it may increase grid tariffs as fixed costs are spread across fewer consumers.
• The impact of solar and other energy shifts varies by country: India's renewable growth was driven by long-term policy and cost competitiveness rather than the 2022 crisis, and coal remains dominant because most demand is met by domestic production. Bangladesh increased coal's share of its power mix from 9.8% to 33.8% between 2022 and 2025, while using subsidies to cushion fuel import costs, which reduced the incentive for rooftop solar. Sri Lanka has used solar and wind to reduce reliance on oil-based generation and slow the need for new coal capacity.
• Despite power sector gains, South Asia remains heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels for transport, industry, and other end uses. Oil import dependence is extremely high, with domestic production meeting only about 10% of demand in India and 15% in Pakistan. Natural gas imports are also significant, with India importing nearly half of its supply and Pakistan and Bangladesh importing 20–30%. Much of this fuel passes through the Strait of Hormuz, creating a strategic vulnerability.
• Further reductions in fossil fuel imports require the electrification of sectors like road transport, industry, and buildings, where electricity currently accounts for a small share of final energy use (about a quarter in Bangladesh, under one-fifth in India, and one-eighth in Pakistan). Additionally, expanding regional grid interconnection—with India as the hub—can help balance seasonal renewable variations. India already imports 4–9 TWh annually from Bhutan and exports 8–9 TWh annually to Bangladesh, though expansion to Pakistan and Sri Lanka is hindered by political and financial barriers.

APA

Rodrigues, N., & Ewen, M. (2026). Solar growth in South Asia has cut fuel imports for power but deeper reductions need electrification and regional grids. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/03/Solar-growth-in-South-Asia-has-cut-fuel-imports-for-power.pdf

Chicago

Rodrigues, Neshwin, and Matt Ewen. Solar growth in South Asia has cut fuel imports for power but deeper reductions need electrification and regional grids. Ember, 2026. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/03/Solar-growth-in-South-Asia-has-cut-fuel-imports-for-power.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rodrigues |first1=Neshwin |last2=Ewen |first2=Matt |title=Solar growth in South Asia has cut fuel imports for power but deeper reductions need electrification and regional grids |publisher=Ember |date=19 March 2026 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/03/Solar-growth-in-South-Asia-has-cut-fuel-imports-for-power.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rodrigues2026solar, author = {Rodrigues, Neshwin and Ewen, Matt}, title = {{Solar growth in South Asia has cut fuel imports for power but deeper reductions need electrification and regional grids}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/03/Solar-growth-in-South-Asia-has-cut-fuel-imports-for-power.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }