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The document provides examples of climate progress to counter pessimism, noting that European Union emissions fell 8% in 2023 and the UK has reduced emissions by over half since 1990. It highlights China's rapid adoption of electric vehicles and its achievement of 2030 renewable targets six years early. In the United States, the text notes that carbon-pricing programs and renewable energy mandates persist at the state level despite federal policy shifts.

Carbon Market Watch urges the European Union to revise its proposal for a global shipping carbon levy before the April 2025 IMO negotiations. The organization argues that the current plan lacks sufficient support for least developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing states (SIDS), who are most vulnerable to increased shipping costs. It recommends that the EU expand revenue use beyond the maritime sector, allocate more funds to vulnerable nations for climate adaptation and resilience, and establish transparent redistribution mechanisms to ensure a just transition.

The report highlights a stark contrast between the $7 trillion in annual global fossil fuel subsidies and the limited funding for climate action. It proposes a $150 per tonne of CO2e levy on international shipping as a landmark mechanism to make polluters pay and fund a just energy transition. While supported by over 50 countries representing 66% of the global fleet, the levy is opposed by BRICS and Petro-States, who account for 68% of fossil fuel subsidies. The author contends that such a levy is legally viable and essential to keep global warming below 1.5°C.

The research paper advocates for South Africa to move away from a market-led 'blended finance model' (BFM) for its just energy transition, arguing that market failures necessitate a state-led approach. The author proposes a 'climate response fund' to be financed by a combination of carbon tax increases, earmarking the General Fuel Levy and Mineral and Petroleum Resource Royalty, and implementing public sector efficiency reforms and retirement tax deduction caps. Together, these measures could generate over R100 billion annually for adaptation and equity. The paper also suggests the issuance of sovereign green bonds to fund renewable energy grid infrastructure, arguing for a gentler fiscal deficit glide path to accommodate this strategic investment.

The policy brief contends that South Africa must move beyond the blended finance model for its just energy transition due to market failures and risks of insufficient or unpredictable private capital. It proposes a suite of domestic resource mobilisation (DRM) measures—including sovereign green bonds, carbon tax reforms, and earmarking existing revenues—to generate approximately R100bn annually for climate priorities. These funds would be pooled into a central climate response fund dedicated to adaptation, equity, and supporting displaced workers, particularly in Mpumalanga. The author argues that this assertive domestic commitment is essential for maintaining state control over infrastructure and for unlocking larger-scale international finance between 2030 and 2050.

The report explains that while provinces have broad authority over natural resources, the Canadian federal government can regulate oil and gas development through various 'heads of power' in the Constitution. It details the legal doctrines used by courts to resolve jurisdictional overlaps, such as 'double aspect' and 'incidental effects,' and analyzes twelve specific federal powers—including criminal law, fisheries, and interprovincial works—that allow the federal government to influence the oil and gas life cycle from production to closure.

The document analyzes how international agreements, regional legislation, and industry competition hinder the removal of fossil fuel subsidies in aviation and shipping. It argues that while fuel taxation is often restricted by bilateral agreements or regional directives like the EU's Energy Taxation Directive, emissions levies through the ICAO and IMO offer viable pathways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and fund the transition to sustainable fuels.

The report examines the implementation of the EU and UK Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs) and the preliminary findings of Australia's Carbon Leakage Review. It highlights the shift from free allocation of emissions permits to border adjustments to prevent carbon leakage, where emissions reductions in one country are offset by increases elsewhere. The EU CBAM is set for full implementation by 2026, and the UK CBAM by 2027. Australia is considering a BCA as a 'robust underpinning' to its Safeguard Mechanism. The document also analyzes WTO discussions from 2020 to 2024, noting a transition from general concerns about protectionism and WTO compliance toward specific discussions on cooperation and interoperability.

The report provides a detailed analysis of the implementation of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs) in the EU, UK, and Australia. It examines the transition from free allocations to border adjustments in the EU, the UK's planned 2027 launch, and Australia's ongoing carbon leakage review. Additionally, it tracks the evolution of multilateral discussions at the WTO, noting a shift from general concerns about protectionism toward specific technical cooperation and interoperability.

The report provides a comprehensive overview of carbon border adjustment mechanisms (CBAMs) as tools to prevent carbon leakage. It details the operational timelines and design features of the EU and UK mechanisms, analyzes a proposed Australian framework, and tracks legislative efforts in the US, Canada, and Taiwan. Additionally, it examines the evolving nature of CBAM discussions at the WTO, noting a shift from general concern toward specific design cooperation and interoperability.

Carbon Market Watch opposes efforts by politicians in countries like Poland and Czechia to reverse or delay the EU's ETS2 carbon pricing system for buildings and road transport. The organization argues that the ETS2 is critical for achieving a 42% emission reduction in these sectors by 2030 and a 55% net reduction overall by 2050. It highlights that the system includes social protections, such as the €86 billion Social Climate Fund and a €45 per tonne soft price cap, to protect vulnerable populations. The document warns that weakening the system would increase future economic costs, exacerbate the climate crisis, and undermine the EU's energy sovereignty.

The Clean Air Task Force (CATF) argues that the EU's Clean Industrial Deal must adopt a technology-neutral approach, integrating a diverse portfolio of low-carbon solutions including carbon capture, hydrogen, and small modular reactors. The brief emphasizes the need for coordinated cross-border infrastructure, particularly for CO2 transport and storage to avoid regional cost disparities, and calls for a robust funding strategy to bridge a projected €180 billion gap following the end of the Recovery and Resilience Facility in 2026. It further recommends targeted market measures, such as reforming public procurement and prioritizing clean hydrogen for hard-to-abate sectors like steel and shipping, while warning against the use of public funds for inefficient solutions like hydrogen blending.

The document analyzes the pathway to net-zero shipping by 2050, highlighting the role of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in implementing technical and economic measures. It emphasizes the disproportionate economic risks for shipping-reliant developing nations, such as increased logistics costs and inflationary pressures, while identifying opportunities for these countries to become producers of scalable zero-emission fuels (SZEF) like green ammonia and hydrogen.

The report assesses Japan's second NDC, which targets a 60% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2035 and 73% by 2040 compared to 2013 levels. The authors argue these targets are insufficient compared to the global average required to limit warming to 1.5°C and risk Japan losing market share in the global clean energy transition. Key recommendations include accelerating the deployment of solar and wind power, implementing a more effective carbon pricing mechanism with a binding cap, and establishing a clear roadmap for the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.

The report identifies three core pillars for scaling transition finance in China's steel sector: robust identification frameworks, financial incentives, and multi-party coordination. It highlights that while pilot regions like Hebei have made progress with specific standards and templates, the broader industry faces high costs, a lack of precise incentives for financial institutions and downstream buyers, and a gap between funding needs and available high-quality transition assets.

The report identifies four technical pillars for industrial decarbonization in East Asia: energy and material efficiency, electrification with renewable energy, CCUS, and green hydrogen/clean feedstocks. It highlights significant barriers, including high fossil fuel dependence, insufficient clean power infrastructure, a lack of fit-for-purpose finance, and a skills gap in the workforce. The document proposes a comprehensive policy package focusing on industry-power co-optimization, cluster-based financing, and vocational training to achieve net-zero targets by 2050 or 2060.

The report provides a comprehensive roadmap for industrial decarbonization in East Asia, focusing on China, Indonesia, and Viet Nam. It proposes a six-tier technical strategy ranging from energy efficiency to green hydrogen and clean feedstocks. The analysis highlights that while efficiency and 'easy electrification' are cost-effective, deeper decarbonization requires massive investments—USD 1.7 trillion cumulatively through 2050 for industry alone across the three nations—and a fully decarbonized power grid. It recommends a policy package centered on carbon pricing, renewable energy procurement, and workforce reskilling to overcome high upfront costs and technical barriers.

The paper examines the challenges South Africa and Brazil face in transitioning to green economies and their shared vulnerability to the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). It argues that both nations perceive CBAM as a form of 'green protectionism' that violates WTO non-discrimination principles and the Paris Agreement's principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC). The authors suggest that South Africa and Brazil can collaborate through BRICS and BASIC to advocate for fairer trade rules, technological support, and the integration of development needs into WTO climate provisions. Domestically, the paper recommends that South Africa accelerate its Renewable Energy Masterplan (SAREM) and reform its carbon tax, while Brazil should formalise a national carbon pricing regime and enforce its Forest Code to maintain export competitiveness.

The document outlines a process for conducting climate scenario analysis on investment portfolios using a static approach. It employs NGFS scenarios to model the financial impact on sovereign bonds (Colombia and USA) and specific industrial sectors (oil, gas, energy, and cement) from 2025 to 2050. The analysis demonstrates that ambitious climate policies generally decrease the valuation of carbon-intensive sectors like oil and cement due to lower demand and carbon taxes, while benefiting the energy sector. It also shows that orderly transitions tend to lower the risk perception and yields of Colombian sovereign bonds compared to disorderly or delayed scenarios.

South Africa's carbon-intensive export model is increasingly vulnerable as 78% of its exports are sold to countries with net zero targets. The report highlights acute risks in the basic metals, automotive, and agricultural sectors due to high embodied CO2 emissions compared to global competitors. While the EU's CBAM and shifting US trade policies pose immediate threats, South Africa's reserves of critical minerals and renewable energy potential offer a strategic path toward 'carbon competitiveness'. The report argues that success depends on decarbonising the national electricity grid, implementing the Climate Change Act 2024, and securing international support through the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP).