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The document evaluates global forest restoration progress using two indicators: Bonn Challenge pledges and UNFCCC Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). As of November 2015, Bonn Challenge commitments reached 62.6 million hectares (41.7% of the 2020 target), while UNFCCC INDCs included pledges for approximately 121.7 million hectares (35% of the 2030 target). The report notes that while commitments have increased, they are often clustered around major agreements and require a faster rate of pledging to meet targets. It also highlights significant data gaps in standardized global aggregates and the limitations of satellite imagery in detecting small-scale forest growth.

The report evaluates global natural forest loss using two proxy indicators: annual gross tree cover loss (Hansen/GFW) and annual net natural forest change (FAO FRA). While FAO data suggests a declining trend in net loss that could meet the 2020 target, Hansen/GFW data indicates that gross tree cover loss has remained high and actually increased by 9% between 2010 and 2014 compared to the 2001-2010 baseline. The document highlights the critical difference between gross and net loss, noting that net accounting can mask the loss of primary forests if they are replaced by regenerated forests, which have lower carbon storage and biodiversity value.

Carbon Market Watch recommends that the ICAO GMBM exclude high-risk offset projects, including fossil fuel power plants, nuclear facilities, large-scale hydropower, and certain industrial gas destruction projects. The brief highlights that these project types often lack additionality, cause severe social and environmental harm, or suffer from non-permanence. It cites existing exclusions in the EU ETS and other jurisdictions as precedents for maintaining high quality standards in aviation's climate response.

Energy Innovation used the Energy Policy Simulator to determine that a specific combination of six policies could meet the Clean Power Plan's goal of reducing power sector CO2 emissions by 32 percent by 2030 while saving the U.S. economy nearly 40 billion dollars between 2016 and 2030. The recommended package focuses on improving coal plant efficiency, accelerating coal retirements, enhancing building and industrial energy efficiency, implementing a 25 percent national average renewable portfolio standard, and increasing transmission capacity. The report contrasts this approach with more expensive alternatives, such as those relying heavily on nuclear power or carbon capture and storage.

South Africa's INDC proposes a 'peak, plateau and decline' emissions trajectory, with GHG emissions expected to peak between 2020 and 2025 and decline in absolute terms after 2036. The plan integrates climate action with the National Development Plan's goal to eliminate poverty by 2030. Adaptation efforts focus on six goals, including the development of a National Adaptation Plan by 2020, while mitigation emphasizes a transition to a low-carbon economy through renewable energy and efficiency. The document emphasizes that these commitments are premised on a fair multilateral agreement and the provision of international finance, technology, and capacity-building support.

The European steel and cement sectors face substantial surplus production capacity and limited reinvestment, hindering the adoption of low-carbon technologies. While energy efficiency and fuel-switching have provided some gains, breakthrough process technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS) require significant public funding and a credible, long-term carbon price signal for both producers and consumers to be viable. The report argues that a comprehensive policy package—combining the EU ETS, innovation funding, and updated building standards—is essential to transition these capital-intensive industries toward sustainable, high-value production.

The document analyzes six models to determine how Mexico can meet its GHG emission reduction targets of 30% by 2020 (vs business-as-usual) and 50% by 2050 (vs 2000). While current energy and emission trends contradict these goals, the models suggest that targets are achievable through electricity decarbonization and transport sector improvements, though costs could reach 15% of GDP by 2050.

The document analyzes Mexico's 2015 INDC, which commits to unconditional reductions of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 22% and black carbon by 51% relative to a 2030 baseline. While noting Mexico's leadership as the first developing country to submit an INDC and its identification of a 2026 emissions peak, the analysis warns that current policy trajectories projected by external sources suggest emissions would continue to increase without further action. The authors recommend formalizing a robust baseline policy to avoid high-carbon lock-in and improving transparency regarding the expected emissions trajectory and the specific conditions required to meet conditional targets.

A collection of brief policy proposals from UK university scientists advocating for deep emission reductions, the removal of fossil fuel subsidies, and a transition to renewable energy infrastructure to meet global climate targets.

We Mean Business welcomes the call for carbon pricing from CEOs of BG, BP, ENI, Royal Dutch Shell, Statoil, and Total, but argues that real leadership requires specific investment commitments and transparency.

The document reviews Claude Martin's analysis of tropical rainforests, highlighting the shift from viewing commercial logging as the primary driver of deforestation to recognizing the central role of agriculture and agro-industrial land conversion. It details the importance of biodiversity, the role of protected areas and remote sensing in conservation, and the emerging threat of climate change, which risks turning forests into net greenhouse gas sources. The text also emphasizes the human rights risks faced by environmental advocates and the need to integrate natural capital into economic policy.

The document refutes claims that WRI miscalculated biomass energy potentials and solar efficiency comparisons, arguing that solar PV is significantly more land-efficient than bioenergy. It challenges the existence of abundant 'marginal land' for biofuels, asserting that such lands often provide critical carbon storage or face economic and legal constraints. WRI further argues that bioenergy does not inherently reduce greenhouse gas emissions unless it drives yield increases beyond what is already required to feed the global population, and that it does not reliably reduce poverty or increase food availability.

The policy brief argues that current carbon pricing mechanisms, which use free allowances to prevent carbon leakage in industrial sectors, eliminate the price signal for mitigation beyond primary production efficiency. To address this, the authors propose 'Inclusion of Consumption,' where a consumption charge is levied on carbon-intensive materials (such as steel, aluminum, and clinker) based on benchmark emission values and the carbon price. This charge would apply to all domestic consumption regardless of origin, making it compatible with WTO law. The mechanism would use duty suspension arrangements to track materials through the value chain, with the charge becoming due only when the good is released for consumption. The brief notes precedents in Asia (South Korea, China, Tokyo) regarding electricity consumption and discusses potential implementation in Europe and the United States.

The report examines the feasibility of linking the EU ETS with various global carbon markets, highlighting that success depends on harmonizing design features such as target stringency, offset rules, and price controls. It analyzes the successful California-Quebec linkage and the failed EU-Australia attempt, while evaluating the compatibility of the EU ETS with markets in Switzerland, China, South Korea, New Zealand, Kazakhstan, and the US RGGI. The author recommends that the EU ETS adopt safeguards used elsewhere, such as auction floor prices and banking limits, to address oversupply and price volatility.

The study analyzes 48 bottom-up energy system scenarios for Japan's 2030 GHG emissions. It finds that high-mitigation scenarios consistent with a 2°C target result in emissions 16-39% below 1990 levels. The authors argue that a minimum reduction of 25% from 1990 levels is necessary, which could be achieved through a combination of restarting nuclear reactors, increasing renewable energy and CCS deployment, and significantly reducing total final consumption (TFC). The paper emphasizes that the choice between coal and natural gas for electricity is as critical as the share of renewables, noting that unabated coal-fired power must remain below 21% to achieve reductions exceeding 20% from 1990 levels.

The report examines the potential for China to use revenues from a national emissions trading scheme (ETS), expected by 2016, to fund renewable energy. While experts agree that earmarking is feasible, they suggest that funds should target less mature technologies like tidal and geothermal power rather than established wind and solar PV, which are already well-financed. Short-term revenues from auctioning allowances are expected to be small, but long-term potential exists if political will remains constant. Governance challenges include the need for transparency, the harmonization of monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) rules across regions, and the decision between centralizing or localizing fund management.

The document details the use of the NREL Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to evaluate three policy scenarios for Illinois: a 'No Policies' case, an 'Existing EEPS + Fixed RPS' case, and a 'Strengthened EEPS + RPS' case. It outlines specific adjustments made to EIA AEO 2014 cost and performance assumptions for various generating technologies, including wind, solar, nuclear, and carbon capture and storage, to better reflect project-specific data and recent studies. Additionally, it provides the calculation methods for energy efficiency costs and savings based on Illinois utility filings.

The analysis finds that while agricultural prices influence deforestation, conservation policies implemented in 2004 and 2008 were critical in curbing forest loss. These policies helped avoid an estimated 73,000 km2 of deforestation between 2005 and 2009, preventing the release of approximately 2.7 billion tons of stored CO2.

The analysis concludes that conservation policies introduced in 2004 and 2008 were effective in reducing deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, preventing the loss of approximately 73,000 km² of forest between 2005 and 2009. While agricultural prices positively correlate with deforestation, the study finds that policy interventions mitigated the impact of rising prices, avoiding an estimated 2.7 billion tons of CO2 emissions valued at USD 13.2 billion.

The Gümüşköy Geothermal Power Plant (GPP) represents the first instance in Turkey where the private sector financed the exploration of an unproven geothermal field. Developed by BM Holding, the 13.2MW project utilized a combination of USD 15.1 million in private equity and USD 34.5 million in debt, including a USD 24.9 million loan from the EBRD-funded Mid-size Sustainable Energy Finance Facility (MidSEFF) channeled through Yapikredi. The project's financial viability was secured by a ten-year USD-denominated feed-in tariff (FiT) of 10.5 USD¢/kWh, which increased equity returns from 10% to 16%. The study finds that while Turkey's geothermal sector grew rapidly from 30MW in 2008 to 405MW in 2014, most projects relied on government-proven fields. Gümüşköy demonstrates that private-led exploration can be cost-competitive, with an LCOE of 10.3 USD¢/kWh, and can build local banking capacity for sustainable energy finance. However, the report warns that scaling the sector requires addressing high carbon emissions from non-condensable gases, suggesting binary systems and carbon capture for industrial use as solutions.