Deforestation Slowdown in the Brazilian Amazon: Prices or Policies?

This executive summary analyzes the drivers of the deforestation slowdown in the Brazilian Amazon between 2004 and 2009, specifically comparing the impact of agricultural prices against conservation policies. The authors find that while agricultural prices influence forest clearing, targeted policy interventions introduced in 2004 and 2008 were instrumental in curbing deforestation, avoiding an estimated 73,000 km2 of forest loss.

• Conservation policies implemented during two key turning points in 2004 and 2008 significantly reduced deforestation in the Amazon. Between 2005 and 2009, these policies helped avoid approximately 73,000 km2 of forest clearings, which represents nearly 60% of the area that would have been cleared without such interventions. This avoided loss is estimated to be equivalent to 2.7 billion tons of stored CO2, with a calculated value of 13.2 billion US dollars.
• The 2004 policy turning point was marked by the launch of the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon (PPCDAm). This plan shifted conservation efforts toward a collaborative model involving federal, state, and municipal governments, civil society, and specialized organizations. Key operational improvements included the implementation of the Real-Time System for Detection of Deforestation (DETER) by the National Institute of Spatial Research (INPE) and the expansion of protected lands and indigenous territories.
• The 2008 policy turning point introduced more targeted and conditional measures. These included the identification of thirty-six priority municipalities with high deforestation rates for stricter monitoring and harsher licensing. Additionally, Presidential Decree 6.514 strengthened the administrative process for sanctioning environmental crimes, and National Monetary Council Resolution 3.545 made rural credit for agricultural activities in the Amazon biome conditional on proof of environmental compliance and land legitimacy.
• Agricultural prices have a causal effect on deforestation, though the impact varies by commodity. Increases in crop prices are positively and significantly associated with higher deforestation in the following year, especially when price changes occur before the sowing season. Cattle prices have a more complex effect: while they are associated with increased deforestation in the following year, there is a negative relationship between current cattle prices and current deforestation, as producers may sell more cattle for consumption during high-price periods, reducing pasture pressure.

APA

Assunção, J., Gandour, C., & Rocha, R. (2015). Deforestation Slowdown in the Brazilian Amazon: Prices or Policies? Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Deforestation-Slowdown-in-the-Brazilian-Amazon-Prices-or-Policies-Executive-Summary.pdf

Chicago

Assunção, Juliano, Clarissa Gandour, and Rudi Rocha. Deforestation Slowdown in the Brazilian Amazon: Prices or Policies? Climate Policy Initiative, 2015. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Deforestation-Slowdown-in-the-Brazilian-Amazon-Prices-or-Policies-Executive-Summary.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Assunção |first1=Juliano |last2=Gandour |first2=Clarissa |last3=Rocha |first3=Rudi |title=Deforestation Slowdown in the Brazilian Amazon: Prices or Policies? |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=March 2015 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Deforestation-Slowdown-in-the-Brazilian-Amazon-Prices-or-Policies-Executive-Summary.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{assuno2015deforestation, author = {Assunção, Juliano and Gandour, Clarissa and Rocha, Rudi}, title = {{Deforestation Slowdown in the Brazilian Amazon: Prices or Policies?}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2015}, month = mar, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Deforestation-Slowdown-in-the-Brazilian-Amazon-Prices-or-Policies-Executive-Summary.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }