CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION IN MEXICO’S INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION (INDC): PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The document analyzes Mexico's 2015 INDC, which commits to unconditional reductions of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 22% and black carbon by 51% relative to a 2030 baseline. While noting Mexico's leadership as the first developing country to submit an INDC and its identification of a 2026 emissions peak, the analysis warns that current policy trajectories projected by external sources suggest emissions would continue to increase without further action. The authors recommend formalizing a robust baseline policy to avoid high-carbon lock-in and improving transparency regarding the expected emissions trajectory and the specific conditions required to meet conditional targets.

• Mexico's INDC includes an unconditional commitment to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 22 percent and black carbon by 51 percent relative to a baseline scenario by 2030. It also proposes conditional reductions of 36 percent for GHG emissions and 70 percent for black carbon by the same year, depending on international support and a global agreement.
• Mexico's energy sector is the primary source of emissions, accounting for 66 percent of the national total. The country's energy mix is heavily reliant on hydrocarbons, with fossil fuels accounting for 91.6 percent of primary energy production in 2013 and 82 percent of electricity generation in 2012.
• The INDC establishes a net emissions peak in 2026 and targets a 40 percent decline in emissions intensity per unit of GDP between 2013 and 2030. This is noted as a significant step, as global emissions must peak by 2020 to limit warming to 2°C.
• External projections from the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) suggest that under current policies, Mexico's GHG emissions would continue to increase indefinitely and would not peak in 2026, indicating that the INDC will require further policy action to be achieved.
• The analysis identifies several transparency gaps in the INDC, including the lack of a specified peak emissions level, uncertainty regarding whether the baseline is static or dynamic, and a lack of detail on the specific conditions needed to trigger the conditional target.
• The authors provide two primary recommendations: the formalization of a robust baseline policy to prevent the lock-in of high-carbon technologies and the improvement of transparency regarding the emissions trajectory and historical GHG inventory updates.

APA

FRANSEN, T., FRANCKE, E., DAMASSA, T., ALTAMIRANO, J. C., GE, M., MARTINEZ, J., & RAMOS, L. (2015). CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION IN MEXICO’S INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION (INDC): PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS. World Resources Institute. https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/uploads/WRI15_OCN_Mexico_INDC_English2.pdf

Chicago

FRANSEN, TARYN, ERIN FRANCKE, THOMAS DAMASSA, JUAN CARLOS ALTAMIRANO, MENGPIN GE, JULIA MARTINEZ, and LETICIA RAMOS. CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION IN MEXICO’S INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION (INDC): PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS. World Resources Institute, 2015. https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/uploads/WRI15_OCN_Mexico_INDC_English2.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{fransen2015climate, author = {FRANSEN, TARYN and FRANCKE, ERIN and DAMASSA, THOMAS and ALTAMIRANO, JUAN CARLOS and GE, MENGPIN and MARTINEZ, JULIA and RAMOS, LETICIA}, title = {{CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION IN MEXICO’S INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION (INDC): PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, year = {2015}, month = jul, url = {https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/uploads/WRI15_OCN_Mexico_INDC_English2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }