wri15_ocn_mexico_indc_english2-145d5779768051ee.pdf

This July 2015 working paper by the Open Climate Network provides a preliminary analysis of the mitigation component of Mexico's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). It evaluates Mexico's commitments to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and black carbon by 2030, examines the transparency of the submission, and compares the INDC's implied emissions trajectories against other government and non-government scenarios.

• Mexico's INDC establishes an unconditional commitment to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 22 percent and black carbon by 51 percent relative to a baseline scenario by 2030. It also proposes a conditional goal of reducing GHG emissions by 36 percent and black carbon by 70 percent by the same year, depending on a global agreement covering issues such as carbon pricing, technology transfer, and access to low-cost financial resources.
• Mexico's INDC is notable for being the first from a developing country and for identifying a specific peak year for emissions, estimating that net emissions will peak in 2026. Additionally, it aims for a 40 percent decline in emissions intensity per unit of GDP between 2013 and 2030.
• The energy sector is the primary source of Mexico's emissions, accounting for 66 percent of the national total, with electricity generation and transportation as the dominant sub-sectors. As of 2013, fossil fuels represented 91.6 percent of primary energy production, while renewable sources accounted for only seven percent.
• The authors identify several transparency gaps in the INDC, specifically the lack of clarity regarding whether the baseline is static or dynamic and the absence of a specified peak emissions level for 2026. They also note that the 2013 inventory's methodological changes make it difficult to compare current projections with historical emissions or the 2050 aspirational goal.
• Comparison with non-government scenarios from the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) suggests that current policies would lead to emissions increasing indefinitely, rather than peaking in 2026. This indicates that achieving the INDC targets will require a significant deviation from the current policy course.
• Mexico's INDC includes an adaptation component—the first of its kind in an INDC—with three measurable goals: reducing the number of 'most vulnerable' municipalities by at least 50 percent, achieving a zero percent deforestation rate by 2030, and establishing early warning and risk management systems at every level of government.

APA

World Resources Institute (n.d.). wri15_ocn_mexico_indc_english2-145d5779768051ee.pdf. https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/uploads/WRI15_OCN_Mexico_INDC_English2.pdf

Chicago

World Resources Institute. wri15_ocn_mexico_indc_english2-145d5779768051ee.pdf. n.d. https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/uploads/WRI15_OCN_Mexico_INDC_English2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Resources Institute |title=wri15_ocn_mexico_indc_english2-145d5779768051ee.pdf |url=https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/uploads/WRI15_OCN_Mexico_INDC_English2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldresourcesinstitutendwri15ocnmexicoindcenglish2145d5779768051eepdf, author = {{World Resources Institute}}, title = {{wri15\_ocn\_mexico\_indc\_english2-145d5779768051ee.pdf}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, url = {https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/uploads/WRI15_OCN_Mexico_INDC_English2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }