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The document analyzes the shift in international trade from a focus on liberalization toward 'multipurpose' approaches driven by geopolitics and national security. It argues that this complexity provides opportunities to embed nature and climate goals into trade agendas. The author proposes a new paradigm that reframes trade as a strategic tool for sustainability, emphasizing a 'nature-positive' narrative and the integration of climate mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage. Key recommendations include reorienting trade rules to reward sustainable production, scaling the diffusion of green technologies, and ensuring that developing countries are not unfairly burdened by environmental requirements. The paper identifies multiple entry points for action, including WTO reform, regional agreements like AfCFTA, and the implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.

The document provides a comprehensive analysis of how the transition to net-zero emissions affects nine global sectors: agriculture, carbon markets, critical minerals, digital transformation, energy transition, fisheries, heavy industries, shipping, and textiles and garments. It examines the intersection of trade policies and climate action, highlighting the risks of 'green protectionism' and the potential for developing countries to capture new economic opportunities through value addition and green industrialization. The reports emphasize the need for international cooperation to ensure a just transition, particularly for least developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing states (SIDS).

The submission argues that South Africa's draft second NDC lacks sufficient ambition and fails to reflect the 'highest possible ambition' required by the Paris Agreement. It proposes more stringent emission targets—350 Mt CO2e for 2025-2030 and 248 Mt CO2e for 2031-2035—based on 'fair share' calculations and the best available science. The document highlights legal risks under the South African Constitution, the Climate Change Act, and NEMA, while criticizing the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE) for a non-transparent process that delayed the release of the underlying technical report. It further calls for a stronger focus on phasing out fossil fuels, enhancing climate adaptation for vulnerable groups, and incorporating climate justice principles from the Presidential Climate Commission's recommendations.

The document defines green industrial policy as government strategies to develop sustainable industries, such as renewable energy and green steel, while phasing out polluting sectors. It highlights that fossil fuel subsidies, which reached $7 trillion worldwide in 2022, hinder the competitiveness of renewables. While countries like China, the US, and EU members have successfully used national policies to boost green tech, developing nations face barriers including limited financing, skills shortages, and intellectual property restrictions. The author argues that the G20 must ensure a just transition by promoting technology transfer, fair trade, and the creation of decent work, while avoiding policies like the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism that may penalise carbon-intensive developing economies.

Carbon Market Watch argues against scrapping the CBAM despite industry complaints about administrative complexity, suggesting instead that the EU quantify actual carbon leakage and circumvention risks before expanding the mechanism to downstream products. The organization emphasizes that complementary EU policies like the Digital Product Passport and international standards can mitigate administrative burdens. It further recommends providing special treatment for Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) to align with UNFCCC principles.

The statement contends that current global trade frameworks often undermine the climate ambitions of developing nations through protectionist policies and geopolitical self-interest. It highlights the negative potential of the EU's Carbon-Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the limitations of the International Maritime Organization's shipping emissions tax. The author advocates for the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) and regional coalitions as viable alternatives to a 'broken' World Trade Organization (WTO) to foster green industrialization, technology transfer, and climate adaptation, specifically citing Mozambique's vulnerability as a case for adaptation-focused trade policy.

The report argues that allowing African exporters to use Article 6 carbon credits to reduce their EU CBAM liabilities would address equity concerns, retain climate finance within Africa, and provide policy flexibility. It notes that current CBAM regulations only permit deductions for explicit carbon prices (taxes or ETS), making Article 6 credits ineligible. The document highlights the significant economic risks CBAM poses to African GDP and the specific challenges African nations face in implementing traditional carbon pricing due to their emissions profiles and administrative constraints. It concludes with recommendations for the EU to amend its regulations to include high-integrity international credits, specifically those from Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Africa, to align with the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC).

Russia is attempting to form a non-Western climate coalition through BRICS, the SCO, and the EAEU to define 'sovereign' climate priorities that protect its fossil fuel exports. The document argues that Russia's approach is obstructionist, relying on the recalculation of forest carbon sinks to meet neutrality goals on paper rather than implementing genuine mitigation. While Russia pushes for shared carbon markets and 'technological neutrality' to prolong fossil fuel use, its Asian partners have largely rejected deep regulatory harmonisation. Meanwhile, Russian non-fossil fuel exporters maintain independent ESG agendas to remain competitive against foreign carbon border adjustments, despite the government's lack of a domestic carbon price.

This fact sheet defines green industrial policy (GIP) as government strategies to promote sustainable industries and phase out greenhouse gas emitters. It highlights the success of China's electric vehicle industry as a model for GIP but warns that developing countries face significant financing, skills, and technological barriers. The document emphasizes the role of the G20 in shaping global GIP principles, particularly under South Africa's agenda, which focuses on leveraging critical minerals to drive inclusive economic growth and manufacturing in Africa.

The document analyzes the surging demand for critical minerals driven by the energy transition, the environmental impacts of mining, and the strategic trade policies developing countries can employ to add value to their mineral resources while ensuring climate resilience.

India's export economy is increasingly vulnerable to carbon-based trade measures, with 68% of its exports going to countries committed to net zero. The report highlights that 7.5 million jobs are exposed to active Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs), and sectors like professional services are among the most carbon-intensive globally. To maintain competitiveness against rivals like Vietnam and China, the document argues India must accelerate grid decarbonisation and update its 2025 Nationally Determined Contribution.

Carbon Market Watch criticizes proposals to compensate EU exporters under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), arguing that the actual competitiveness risk is limited and that subsidies would reward polluters. The author contends that CBAM revenue should not be used to subsidize EU producers, as this could conflict with WTO rules and encourage the export of polluting products. Instead, the document advocates for targeted financial support for clean technology innovation and the global expansion of carbon pricing.

The EU agriculture sector is a primary source of methane emissions, yet progress in reduction has stalled, with only a 4% decline between 2005 and 2022. The report identifies a critical 'definition gap' where the lack of clear net-zero aligned agricultural practices and transition pathways prevents banks and investors from identifying green activities. This is compounded by the exclusion of agriculture from the EU Taxonomy and the Green Asset Ratio (GAR). The report argues for repurposing the EUR 57.5bn annual Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) budget, introducing livestock emissions taxes, and implementing demand-side policies to reduce herd sizes. It emphasizes a 'just transition' to protect small farms and high-emission regions, particularly in France, Germany, and Ireland.

This report presents guidelines for designing Border Carbon Adjustment (BCA) mechanisms, based on global stakeholder dialogues. It offers specific recommendations on measuring embodied GHG emissions, determining sectoral coverage, managing revenues, and crediting foreign carbon prices. The guidance emphasizes 'parallel treatment' between domestic and foreign producers and suggests mechanisms to support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and developing countries in their low-carbon transition, while cautioning against blanket country exemptions to maintain the effectiveness of leakage prevention.

The document outlines a strategic framework for negotiating protocols under the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation (UN FCITC). It identifies two 'early protocols'—cross-border services and tax dispute resolution—and several 'possible protocols' including the digital economy, illicit financial flows, high-net-worth individuals, and environmental challenges. The report argues that the UN FCITC can provide a more inclusive and effective alternative to OECD-led frameworks, particularly for developing countries, by establishing global standards for taxing the digital economy, combating tax evasion, and coordinating climate-related fiscal policies.

The report outlines a strategic framework for negotiating protocols under the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation (UN FCITC). It identifies two 'early protocols'—taxation of cross-border services and the resolution of tax disputes—and several 'potential protocols' covering the digital economy, illicit financial flows, high-net-worth individuals, environmental taxation, information exchange, mutual assistance, and harmful tax practices. The document argues that the UN FCITC can provide a more inclusive and effective alternative to OECD-led initiatives, which often disadvantage developing nations. Key recommendations include establishing a global digital services tax, creating a global asset register for beneficial ownership, implementing a global minimum tax on the super-rich, and developing a coordinated multilateral environmental tax architecture to support net-zero goals.

The report outlines a strategic framework for negotiating protocols under the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation, focusing on enhancing tax revenue and fairness for developing countries. It details two preliminary protocols—cross-border services and tax dispute resolution—and several potential protocols covering the digital economy, illicit financial flows, high-net-worth individuals, environmental taxation, information exchange, mutual administrative assistance, and harmful tax practices. The document argues for a shift away from OECD-led standards, which it claims often disadvantage developing nations, toward a more inclusive UN-led multilateral architecture.

The report finds that current EU ETS cap trajectories are more ambitious than required by most climate neutrality scenarios, potentially leading to severe allowance shortages and price spikes after 2035. It evaluates several reform options to balance supply and demand, including adjusting the linear reduction factor (LRF), reforming the Market Stability Reserve (MSR), and integrating carbon dioxide removals (CDRs). The authors warn against the inclusion of Article 6 international credits due to risks to environmental integrity and the potential for market collapse. Recommended solutions include a combination of MSR replenishment and technological CDRs or a phased reduction of the LRF post-2035.

South Africa faces significant trade risks as its carbon-intensive export model clashes with global net zero targets and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs). Approximately 78% of its exports are sold to countries with net zero targets, and hundreds of thousands of jobs are exposed to CBAMs in the EU and UK. High embodied CO2 emissions in the basic metals and automotive sectors, combined with a carbon-intensive electricity grid, threaten competitiveness. However, the document notes South Africa's potential to pivot using its critical minerals and renewable energy resources, provided that international financial commitments like the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) are fulfilled.

The report argues that direct electrification is the most efficient way to decarbonize industrial process heat, outperforming alternatives like green hydrogen, bioenergy, and carbon capture. It identifies three primary barriers: economics (high electricity costs relative to fossil fuels), grid readiness (slow interconnection and outdated planning), and technology maturity (lack of awareness and scale for high-temperature solutions). To overcome these, the authors recommend a combination of financial incentives (such as a Clean Heat Production Tax Credit), grid reforms (including surplus interconnection and real-time pricing), and foundational RD&D and workforce training.