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The 2011 elections in the DRC were marked by significant logistical failures, allegations of fraud, and persistent insecurity, particularly in the east. While Joseph Kabila was declared the winner and consolidated power, the process was criticized by international observers and the opposition for lacking transparency. Post-election dynamics have been characterized by continued instability in the Kivu regions, including military mutinies and the emergence of the M23 group, alongside deep-seated socio-economic poverty and ethnic polarization.

The 2011 elections in the DRC were marked by logistical failures, allegations of fraud, and political radicalization. While Joseph Kabila was declared the winner and maintained a parliamentary majority, the process was criticized by international observers and the domestic opposition. Post-election stability has been undermined by renewed insecurity in the east, specifically army mutinies and tensions with Rwanda, alongside persistent socioeconomic hardship and a lack of national reconciliation.

The document argues that while governance-related intra-state conflicts have become more prevalent than direct inter-state border disputes since the late 1980s, Africa's porous and artificial colonial borders continue to threaten peace and security. These boundaries facilitate the 'regionalisation of conflict' by allowing domestic instability to spill over into neighbouring states, as seen in the Great Lakes region, the Horn of Africa, and West Africa. The author contends that the African Union's (AU) policy of maintaining the colonial status quo (the 'inviolability of national boundaries') has not eliminated tensions. To address this, the AU Border Programme (AUBP) seeks to transform borders from 'barriers' into 'bridges' through proper delimitation and demarcation, which the author identifies as a necessary precondition for successful continental integration and the structural prevention of conflict.

The research paper analyzes the similarities and differences between al-Shabaab and the LRA, noting that while both utilize religious frameworks to justify violence and mobilize support, they differ significantly in their leadership structures and goals. Al-Shabaab maintains a decentralized, community-based network with international links and territorial control in parts of Somalia, whereas the LRA has evolved into a small, mobile force focused on survival through pillaging in border zones of Central Africa. The author argues that military-only responses to these groups are ineffective because they fail to address the underlying structural grievances and social marginalization that drive recruitment.

The 2011 Ugandan elections resulted in a fourth term for President Yoweri Museveni, who secured 68.38% of the vote. While some regional observers deemed the process free and fair, international bodies like the EU and AU cited widespread irregularities, including voter bribery, ballot stuffing, and intimidation. The report highlights significant internal tensions, such as the conflict with the Buganda kingdom and the potential for resource-based conflict following oil discoveries in Buliisa and Amaru districts. Regionally, Museveni's victory maintains his influence in the East African Community and his commitment to an East African Federation, despite ongoing security threats from Al-Shabaab and allegations of interference in the DRC.

The report details the 2011 Djiboutian presidential elections, which saw President Ismail Omar Guelleh re-elected for a third term with 80.56% of the vote following a boycott by the main opposition coalition, the Union for a Democratic Alternative (UAD). The author argues that the electoral process was far from competitive due to the fusion of the ruling Union for a Presidential Majority (UMP) with the state apparatus and the removal of presidential term limits in 2010. The document also highlights internal instability, including violent youth protests in February 2011 and ethnic tensions between the Issa and Afar groups. Externally, it describes the strategic military presence of France and the US, and the volatile border relationship with Eritrea, which was partially mitigated by Qatari mediation in 2010.

The document examines the 2011 uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, alongside the political responses in Algeria and Morocco. It identifies systemic corruption, youth unemployment, and political exclusion as primary drivers. It specifically analyzes the Libyan civil war, the role of the African Union and European Union, and the potential for these revolutionary dynamics to spread to Sub-Saharan Africa. The report concludes that the African Union's response was slow and lacked a clear framework for dealing with popular democratic revolutions compared to military coups.

The document analyzes the failure to complete multiple phases of the DDR process in the DRC, noting that ongoing violence in the eastern region and a lack of political will have hindered stability. It highlights the tension between 'brassage' (retraining and deployment) and 'mixage' (local integration) and argues that the FARDC's security sector reform cannot succeed without the effective completion of DDR. The report details the roles of international bodies like MONUSCO and the World Bank, while criticizing the Congolese government's preference for operational equipment over institutional accountability and the fragmented approach of bilateral donors.

The briefing examines Liberia's fragile state as it prepares for the 2011 elections. While President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf has overseen significant infrastructural and economic growth, the document highlights critical failures in national reconciliation following a controversial Truth and Reconciliation Commission report, a weak and under-equipped security sector, and a severely degraded justice system. It argues that the 2011 elections are a critical test for the country's stability and the timing of UN troop withdrawal.

The author argues that while South Africa possesses the political will and capability to react to security threats during the 2010 FIFA World Cup, it suffers from a lack of proactivity in counter-terrorism intelligence. This vulnerability is attributed to the politicisation of intelligence services and a sense of complacency following previous successful sporting events. The document identifies two primary security dimensions: high levels of violent criminality, exacerbated by porous borders and unemployment, and the risk of terrorism, noting that sports events are 'magnets' for such attacks. The author calls for an urgent overhaul of intelligence services, the replacement of political appointees with professionals, and improved national and international cooperation to prevent potential outrages.

The report analyzes the complex relationship between Egypt and the Sudan (North and South) ahead of the 2011 Southern Sudan referendum. It highlights Egypt's strategic interests in Nile water security, regional stability, and trade, while warning that a flawed referendum or failed secession negotiations could lead to renewed civil war or state collapse. The document argues that Egypt must move beyond its preference for Sudanese unity to constructively engage with both Northern and Southern Sudanese entities to ensure a peaceful transition and maintain its influence in the Nile Basin.

The document details the conclusion of the peace process between the Government of Burundi and the Palipehutu-FNL, including the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) of combatants and the movement's transition into a political party. It further analyses the volatile pre-electoral environment for the 2010 polls, highlighting disputes over the electoral code, internal party divisions, and the risk of violence driven by the militarisation of youth leagues and incomplete civilian disarmament.

The paper argues that the SPLA/M is unlikely to transition into a political party in the short term due to persistent security threats, lack of trust in the Khartoum government, and internal structural issues. It highlights how the Sudanese government's support for Southern militias and the linkage of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) to the conflict in Darfur disincentivize the SPLA/M from disarming. The author emphasizes that a successful transition requires a clear settlement of North-South relations, the disarmament of pro-government militias, and a resolution to the Darfur crisis.

The document examines the fragile peace process in Burundi, specifically the integration of the PALIPEHUTU-FNL into the political system. It details the role of regional mediators, the impact of internal power struggles within the ruling CNDD-FDD, and the eventual symbolic concession by the FNL to drop ethnic references from its name to allow for political registration. It also notes significant debt relief provided by the World Bank and IMF in early 2009.

The document examines Africa's engagement with the CWC and BTWC, noting that while CWC participation is high due to the support of the OPCW, BTWC engagement is low due to a lack of an oversight body and a perception that biological weapons are not a primary threat. It highlights significant gaps in national legislation and the vulnerability of African public health systems to deliberate disease outbreaks.

The BX-1 is a small, maneuverable companion satellite released by the Shenzhou 7 mission to test rendezvous and formation flying capabilities. Analysis by the Union of Concerned Scientists suggests that because the satellite relies on ground-based guidance and lacks high-accuracy distance-determination sensors, it is unlikely to be capable of close-range maneuvering around non-cooperative foreign satellites.

The briefing analyzes the rise of piracy in Somalia, specifically citing the seizure of the MV Faina, as evidence of systemic security failures. It attributes the crisis to the inability of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to provide security, the limited mandate of AMISOM, and the failure of regional bodies like IGAD. The author contends that piracy gained local legitimacy as a response to the illegal exploitation of Somali marine resources by foreign companies and argues that military solutions are insufficient without a paradigm shift toward human security and the establishment of an inclusive Somali government.

The report argues that environmental change acts as a 'threat multiplier' for Canadian security, particularly through the opening of Arctic shipping routes and the scramble for newly accessible oil and gas reserves. It highlights tensions with Denmark over Hans Island and the U.S. over the Northwest Passage. Internationally, it notes that climate-induced migration and resource conflicts increase the burden on Canadian peacekeeping and aid. Conversely, the report asserts that Canada's 'new security agenda'—focused on counter-terrorism and energy independence—often competes with environmental management, as seen in the push for oil sands development and the proposed militarization of the Great Lakes.

The document analyzes terrorism in Egypt through three distinct cycles, tracing the evolution from the 1928 founding of the Muslim Brotherhood to the 2006 Dahab bombings. It argues that Egypt's closed political system, socio-economic marginalization—particularly of the Bedouin community in Sinai—and heavy-handed security responses have fueled extremism. The paper also details the significant role of Egyptian nationals, such as Ayman al-Zawahiri, in the formation and leadership of transnational networks like al-Qa'eda, suggesting that domestic repression effectively exported extremism globally.

The briefing argues that ZANU-PF has used its two-thirds parliamentary majority to entrench power through constitutional amendments and the 'securitisation' of civilian institutions. It highlights 'Operation Murambatsvina' as a violent urban crackdown that displaced hundreds of thousands of people, which the author suggests was politically motivated to crush opposition support. The report details the dominance of the Zezuru faction within the government and the severe economic collapse of the country, characterized by hyperinflation and a contracting GDP. It concludes that the regime's reliance on military force and patronage networks undermines democracy and human rights, while international efforts for reform, including South African 'quiet diplomacy' and Chinese engagement, have failed to produce a positive transition.