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The report examines the intersection of climate-driven food insecurity and geopolitical instability, arguing that the weaponization of food trade and the reversal of global economic integration exacerbate the risks posed by climate change. It recommends a combination of enhancing domestic climate-resilient agriculture, pursuing plurilateral cooperation among small groups of countries, transitioning to plant-based diets, and integrating demographic shifts into food security planning.

The report argues that ecological disruption is an underappreciated security threat and advocates for the integration of strategic foresight tools—such as horizon scanning, futures wheels, and scenario planning—into national security architecture. It identifies land/sea-use change and global atmospheric/oceanic warming as the primary drivers of ecological instability. Through four plausible mid-century scenarios, the document illustrates how these drivers can lead to systemic collapses, such as Amazon dieback or the failure of the Lake Victoria Basin, resulting in famine, pandemics, and geopolitical conflict. The author recommends that security stakeholders shift their risk calculus to include ecological decline and prioritize locally-led, indigenous stewardship in resource management.

New analysis from the World Resources Institute reveals that 25% of global crops are grown in areas with highly stressed or unreliable water supplies. This vulnerability is particularly acute for staple crops like rice, wheat, and corn, with 33% produced in such areas. The report highlights a critical dependency on a small number of countries for irrigated crops and the increasing instability of rainfed agriculture due to climate change. To mitigate these risks, the document recommends strategies including reducing food waste, shifting diets away from water-intensive meats, increasing irrigation efficiency, and investing in nature-based solutions.

The 2024 Private Equity Climate Risks Scorecard reveals that the energy portfolios of 21 analyzed private equity firms are responsible for 1.17 gigatons of annual CO2 equivalent emissions. As of July 2024, 66 percent of these portfolios remain invested in fossil fuels, primarily in upstream fossil fuels, LNG terminals, and coal plants. The report argues that these investments expose firms and their investors—including public sector pension funds—to significant financial risks such as asset stranding, citing the bankruptcy of at least 60 U.S. coal companies between 2012 and 2022. The firms are evaluated against standards including science-based targets, fossil fuel disclosure, energy transition plans, environmental justice, and lobbying transparency.

The report argues that Senegal's investment in LNG is a high-risk gamble that could lead to stranded assets and entrenched fossil fuel dependency, especially as European demand is forecast to decline. It suggests that prioritizing renewable energy is a safer and more effective path to meeting energy targets and economic growth.

The MAP-Fire project investigates the increasing risk of wildfires in the Amazon, particularly in the transborder region of Madre de Dios (Peru), Acre (Brazil), and Pando (Bolivia). It aims to quantify fire impacts, identify bottlenecks in monitoring strategies, increase population risk awareness, and influence conservation policies to support Sustainable Development Goals and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Findings indicate that 2019 fires in Acre burned 1,802 km2—an 80% increase over 2018—leading to 21 days where air pollution exceeded WHO limits. The project also highlights that standard wildfire contingency plans are ineffective during extreme droughts, which increase forest vulnerability and affected areas.

Human-caused climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires in the U.S., exposing millions of homes and hundreds of thousands of miles of roads and power lines to risk. Approximately one-third of U.S. homes and 116 million people are located in counties with high or very high wildfire risk, with the highest concentrations in Western states and Florida. Between 2000 and 2019, over 265,000 miles of roads and power lines in the contiguous U.S. were exposed to large fires. The risk is further amplified by the expansion of the wildland-urban interface, which grew by about 31% between 1990 and 2020.

The memorandum argues that while South African law does not yet have a specific statute requiring directors to prepare for climate change, existing fiduciary duties, the duty of care and diligence, and emerging legislation like the Climate Change Act 22 of 2024 create a legal basis for accountability. It highlights that South African courts are increasingly relying on non-binding governance standards, such as the King IV Report, and international obligations to interpret directors' duties. The document outlines several avenues for liability, including derivative actions under section 165 of the Companies Act, piercing the corporate veil under section 20(9), and criminal liability under the National Environmental Management Act (NEMA). It concludes that directors should proactively manage climate risk to avoid potential litigation as legal frameworks evolve.

The report details a spatial modelling approach to assess climate risks for new housing in Canada, focusing on flood and wildfire hazards under current and 2030 RCP 4.5 scenarios. It describes the allocation of new units across 5,161 census subdivisions and the specific estimation methods used to determine average annual loss (AAL) for these new developments.

The report examines Senegal's transition to an LNG exporter, highlighting risks such as high breakeven prices, potential stranded assets, and socio-economic disruptions to coastal fishing communities. It argues that relying on optimistic revenue projections is risky given the IEA's projected decline in natural gas demand by 2050 and recommends prioritizing renewable energy and strategic revenue management to avoid fossil fuel lock-in.

Three companies—GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Power—control two-thirds of the global market for gas turbines in power plants currently under construction. While these firms are expanding through regional partnerships and promoting 'hydrogen-ready' technology, the report argues they face significant geopolitical and financial risks due to the rapid growth of renewables and the potential for gas power overcapacity.

The United States saw a 60% increase in major weather-related power outages during the heat season between 2014-2023 compared to 2000-2009. The South region experienced the highest number of these events, with Texas and Michigan recording the most outages at the state level. These outages compound health risks for vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and children, particularly when overlapping with extreme heat waves. Proposed solutions for grid resilience include the implementation of microgrids, smart grid technologies, and physical hardening of infrastructure.

The report highlights a significant gap in emissions reporting among Indonesia's ten largest coal mining companies, where six fail to include coal mine methane (CMM) in their inventories. Despite national regulations and international standards, CMM emissions are often overlooked in favour of carbon dioxide reductions, potentially doubling the reported emissions of some companies. The document warns that increasing coal production quotas amidst declining global demand creates stranded asset risks and environmental impacts. It recommends that companies adopt comprehensive GHG inventories, re-assess investment risks in light of global methane pricing trends, and implement technical abatement measures such as pre-mine drainage.

Climate Central analysis shows that 88% of 242 analyzed U.S. cities have seen an increase in extremely hot days since 1970, posing significant risks of heat-related illness and death for student athletes, particularly youth and teens.

North Africa faces critical ecological security threats from water scarcity and advancing desertification, which are expected to intensify by 2040 due to climate change and population growth. The region is experiencing declining rainfall, extreme heat waves, and sea-level rise, which threaten food security and socio-economic stability. Key vulnerabilities include the overexploitation of groundwater and a high dependence on food imports. The document recommends a transition to sustainable agriculture, including drip irrigation and drought-resistant crops, alongside wastewater recycling and community-based resilience initiatives.

The study examines how climate change disrupts food production systems in Kenya's arid and semi-arid rangelands, identifying that reduced water availability and temperature variability threaten value chain sustainability. It argues that resilience requires integrating tailored strategies, improving access to climate information services, and fostering collaboration between government, private sector, and local communities to mitigate economic losses and food insecurity.

The report argues that offshore carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an ineffective and risky strategy that prolongs fossil fuel dependence. It highlights that proposed 'hubs' in the Gulf of Mexico and North Sea face significant technical challenges, such as pressure management and leakage from legacy wells, while relying heavily on public subsidies. The document concludes that CCS often covers for expanded fossil fuel production and calls for a halt to these projects to protect marine ecosystems and accelerate a just energy transition.

The United Kingdom plans to introduce a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2027 to prevent carbon leakage as free allowances under its Emissions Trading System (ETS) are phased out. While similar to the EU CBAM, the UK version will cover ceramics and glass but exclude electricity, and it will lack a transition period. The report highlights risks including potential trade diversion, administrative burdens for exporters, and diplomatic tensions with developing nations who view such measures as 'environmental colonialism'. It suggests that the UK would benefit from mirroring the EU's reporting systems and exploring the linkage of their respective ETSs to reduce bureaucratic friction and economic risk.

The report identifies significant vulnerabilities in American Securities' investment strategy, citing multiple bankruptcies and distressed exits such as Air Methods and Longview Power. It highlights 'headline risk' and legal challenges facing portfolio companies like ViaPath (prison telecommunications) and Amentum (defense contracting), including allegations of predatory pricing and human trafficking. Additionally, the document details regulatory risks, such as a $13 million antitrust settlement for General Chemical and multiple deceptive practice settlements for Aspen Dental. Finally, it notes ESG risks in healthcare and education, where companies like North American Partners in Anesthesia and FullBloom have faced lawsuits and investigations over understaffing and failure to provide credentialed teachers.

The report examines how the interaction of climate change and globalization increases the risk of invasive pests and pathogens, threatening the global food supply. It highlights the vulnerability of monocultures and the high economic costs of biological invasions, while linking food insecurity to national security risks and armed conflict. The author advocates for a shift toward pre-invasion biosecurity, the development of low-cost detection systems, and the adoption of a One Health framework for research to build a more resilient global food supply chain.