Senegal’s Big LNG Gamble

The report examines Senegal's transition to an LNG exporter, highlighting risks such as high breakeven prices, potential stranded assets, and socio-economic disruptions to coastal fishing communities. It argues that relying on optimistic revenue projections is risky given the IEA's projected decline in natural gas demand by 2050 and recommends prioritizing renewable energy and strategic revenue management to avoid fossil fuel lock-in.

• Senegal's LNG projects face significant economic viability risks due to high breakeven prices compared to major global producers like Qatar and the United States, making them more vulnerable to price drops.
• The development of LNG infrastructure has caused socio-economic distress for coastal communities, particularly fishermen who lost access to fertile fishing areas (diattara), leading some women to resort to prostitution.
• There is a high risk of asset stranding because domestic demand may be insufficient to keep production assets operating if global demand declines in the 2030s.
• Government revenues from LNG may be limited as profits might be reinvested into further infrastructure by the state-owned company Petrosen rather than entering the general budget.
• The timeline for LNG production in sub-Saharan Africa often exceeds estimates; a review of 12 projects showed an average of 11.9 years to start production versus an estimated 8.1 years.
• Senegal's energy strategy includes a 'gas-to-power' approach to improve electricity access (currently at 75%), but this requires significant new pipeline infrastructure and power plant conversions to be viable.

APA

Vazi, B., & Bridle, R. (2024). Senegal’s Big LNG Gamble. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-09/senegal-lng-gamble.pdf

Chicago

Vazi, Bathandwa, and Richard Bridle. Senegal’s Big LNG Gamble. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2024. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-09/senegal-lng-gamble.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Vazi |first1=Bathandwa |last2=Bridle |first2=Richard |title=Senegal’s Big LNG Gamble |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=September 2024 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-09/senegal-lng-gamble.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vazi2024senegals, author = {Vazi, Bathandwa and Bridle, Richard}, title = {{Senegal’s Big LNG Gamble}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2024}, month = sep, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-09/senegal-lng-gamble.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }