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The report argues that while trade liberalisation has generally fostered growth and poverty reduction in developing countries, the momentum for such reforms has slowed since the 1990s. It identifies macroeconomic crises, interest group shifts, and the influence of ideas as primary drivers of reform, while noting that 'new-globalising' countries—particularly in East Asia—have seen the most success. The author advocates for unilateral liberalisation over reciprocal negotiations and warns against a return to 'hard' industrial policies or over-reliance on foreign aid.

The report examines China's development policy in Africa, highlighting its shift from political goals to economic priorities, specifically energy security and market expansion. It contrasts China's 'non-interference' approach with Western conditionality, noting that China's willingness to engage with 'rogue states' provides it a comparative advantage in securing resources. While critics argue this undermines governance and debt relief, the authors suggest that China's presence breaks the traditional 'aid cartel' and may encourage G8 donors to improve aid effectiveness. The report recommends that Western donors integrate China into a collaborative development strategy rather than demonising its approach.

The document analyses the transition of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) from a model of South African dominance and protectionism to one of 'open regionalism' and consensus-based decision-making under the 2002 agreement. Using game theory to explain the difficulties of regional cooperation, it argues that SACU's historical durability relied on a tradeoff where smaller members accepted South African policy dominance in exchange for generous shares of a common revenue pool. The 2002 agreement threatens this balance by seeking to reduce external tariffs, which would likely shrink the revenue pool, while granting smaller members veto rights over such reductions. The author suggests that for SACU to succeed in deepening integration or expanding membership to countries like Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, or Zimbabwe, it must find new ways to align the strategic self-interests of member governments with collective developmental goals.

The document examines the dual role of foreign aid in the Melanesian Pacific, where it serves both as a tool for peace-building and as a potential driver of political instability. While aid supports basic services and peace processes, it is often driven by the geo-strategic interests of donors like Australia, Japan, and China rather than recipient needs. The author argues that aid can inadvertently exacerbate corruption, widen wealth disparities, and provide a 'prize' for political elites to contest, contributing to the region's reputation as an 'arc of instability'.

The document examines the transition of the global coffee chain from a regulated regime under the International Coffee Agreement to a 'roaster-driven' buyer-driven chain. It evaluates the effectiveness of sustainability certifications—including Fair Trade, Organic, Utz Kapeh, and Shade-grown—in addressing economic, social, and environmental sustainability. The author argues that while these standards can provide premiums and market access, they often create new entry barriers and are frequently controlled by consuming-country actors, potentially reinforcing buyer-driven governance.

The document analyzes land reform efforts in Zimbabwe, Namibia, and Mozambique, highlighting the persistent legacy of skewed colonial land ownership. It details Zimbabwe's transition from stalled reform to the 'fast track' land invasions of 2000, Namibia's struggle with the 'willing-seller' model and potential shift toward expropriation, and Mozambique's unique legal framework that grants rights to customary tenure while leasing land to foreign commercial farmers. The author argues that while land reform is essential for human development, poor planning, corruption, and political manipulation often hinder its success, with Zimbabwe's instability creating economic contagion and investment risks across Southern Africa.

The document examines the evolution of India's power sector, highlighting the transition from state-run electricity boards (SEBs) to a restructured model involving independent power producers (IPPs) and privatization. It details the 'Orissa Model' promoted by the World Bank, the failures of the 1991 IPP policy, and the subsequent scaling of restructuring to other states like Andhra Pradesh. The authors argue that political expediency and financial crises often overrode social and environmental goals, leading to institutional 'lock-ins' such as agricultural subsidies and expensive long-term power purchase agreements.

The document examines the restructuring of Argentina's electric power sector, which transitioned from state dominance to a privatized model of unbundled generation, transmission, and distribution. It analyzes the political economy of this shift, highlighting the influence of the World Bank and other multilateral development banks in promoting neoliberal reforms. The study finds that while the reforms improved technical efficiencies and reduced wholesale prices, they often resulted in regressive social impacts, such as the elimination of social tariffs for low-income groups and significant job losses. Environmental concerns were largely relegated to compliance with pre-existing manuals, and energy efficiency initiatives were hindered by the unbundling of the sector and low electricity prices. The report concludes that the reforms were largely irreversible due to a strong government commitment to the market model, despite emerging governance challenges and public dissatisfaction following major service failures like the 1999 EDESUR blackout.

The document analyzes Ghana's power sector reform, which was primarily triggered by World Bank conditionality for a thermal power project and a need to address power shortages caused by droughts. The Government of Ghana (GOG) opted for a competitive model involving the unbundling of the Volta River Authority (VRA) into strategic business units to attract private investment and reduce sovereign guarantee liabilities. The reform established two regulatory bodies: the Public Utilities Regulatory Commission (PURC) for tariff setting and the Energy Commission (EC) for licensing. While social goals like universal access by 2020 were integrated, the paper notes that environmental concerns were largely a 'spin-off' of other measures like Demand Side Management (DSM) and Embedded Generation Facilities (EGF).

The document examines the tension between Africa's fossil fuel endowments and the global push for decarbonization, highlighting the risks of stranded assets and the dominance of Global North financing. It argues for a Just Transition that ensures energy access while moving toward low-carbon sources.

The document examines how Mozambique's vast natural gas reserves, particularly in the Rovuma Basin, have failed to translate into sustainable development, instead contributing to regional inequality, corruption, and civil unrest in Cabo Delgado. It analyzes the 'enclave' nature of extractive projects and the country's severe debt crisis, including the 'Tuna Bonds' scandal. The brief also addresses the gendered impacts of the energy sector and the challenges of transitioning to a just energy future while managing critical minerals like graphite.

The report examines how Tanzania's extractive industries, particularly natural gas and gold, have created economic enclaves and contributed to a 'sub-national resource curse' in regions like Mtwara and Lindi. It analyzes the country's rising debt-to-GDP ratio, which grew from 28% to 40% in four years, and the role of resource-backed loans from China for infrastructure like the Standard Gauge Railway. While Tanzania possesses significant renewable energy potential in solar, wind, and hydropower, the report notes a continued reliance on fossil fuels and a lack of gender-sensitive policies in the energy sector. It concludes with recommendations to diversify the economy, strengthen governance, and develop a domestic downstream sector for critical minerals.

The document analyzes the political economy of climate finance in Africa, arguing that the system is dominated by the Global North and market-driven logics that privilege mitigation over adaptation. It highlights how the 'financialization' of climate action shifts risk to vulnerable individuals and exacerbates debt crises in African nations. Through case studies of Ghana, Kenya, and Zimbabwe, the paper illustrates the challenges of tracking funds and the limited influence of civil society. It recommends the creation of localized African financing institutions and the use of debt-for-climate swaps to improve sustainability and equity.

The document analyzes the tensions between Kenya's goals for industrial growth and energy access versus its climate mitigation ambitions. It highlights that while renewable energy aligns with national security goals, the discovery of oil and gas, along with a focus on large-scale capacity for industry, may marginalize pro-poor energy access and smaller-scale renewables like solar. The briefing emphasizes that the transition to a low-carbon economy is driven by power dynamics involving the government, international donors, and business associations, noting that current policy often prioritizes market-based approaches and industrial competitiveness over the needs of the rural poor.

The document outlines China's '1+N climate framework' and its goals to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. It identifies five key intervention areas for systemic transformation: power generation, energy distribution networks, transport, carbon sinks, and technology/energy policy. The authors argue that international collaboration, knowledge sharing, and philanthropic funding—which averaged $75 million per year between 2017 and 2020—can help overcome technical and financial barriers, create economies of scale for clean technologies, and improve the efficiency of China's national emissions trading scheme (ETS).

The briefing outlines a pathway for Nigeria to reach net-zero emissions by 2060, emphasizing the need to move away from oil dependency through Public-Private Community Partnerships (PPCP). It identifies critical opportunities in waste management, clean energy access, and the AFOLU sector, while proposing the use of debt-for-climate swaps to fund the USD 410 billion Energy Transition Plan. The authors argue that systemic transformation requires engaging key government stakeholders, such as the Office of the Vice-President, and supporting local cleantech entrepreneurship to create green jobs.

Indonesia faces significant structural barriers to achieving net-zero emissions by 2060, including an unstable policy environment, inconsistent signals regarding fossil fuel subsidies, and a lack of coordinated strategy across sectors. The country requires approximately $200 billion annually for its climate agenda, yet domestic public budget contributions from 20152020 averaged only $4.5 billion. To address these gaps, the briefing suggests three key interventions: the use of blended finance to de-risk renewable energy projects like geothermal power, the operationalization of 'Just Transition' principles through the Indonesia Just Energy Transition Partnership (INO-JETP), and the implementation of multi-level coordination mechanisms to engage sub-national governments and standardize greenhouse gas reporting.

India aims for net-zero emissions by 2070, with interim 2030 goals including 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity and 50% energy requirements from renewables. The transition faces significant hurdles, including a heavy reliance on coal (84% of power generation) and high import dependency for crude oil and solar components. Financial requirements are immense, estimated between USD 5.7 trillion by 2050 and USD 10.1 trillion by 2070. The report emphasizes the need for a 'just transition' to protect the livelihoods of approximately 13 million people dependent on coal mining and to address regional economic imbalances. Opportunities for acceleration include the green hydrogen policy, expansion of offshore wind, and the development of domestic energy storage manufacturing to reduce reliance on China.

The document asserts that the climate crisis is exacerbated by 'corporate and elite capture' of political processes, where narrow interests from polluting industries influence governments to resist urgent economic transformation. It highlights how this influence manifests through lobbying, funding, and 'revolving doors,' and argues that underlying power imbalances created by neoliberal trade and investment liberalisation prioritise short-term corporate profits over environmental protection and human well-being. The briefing specifically critiques the trajectory of the UNFCCC and the promotion of 'false solutions' like carbon capture and storage and nuclear energy.

The report examines the insurgency in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, led by Alu Sunna Wa-Jama (ASWJ). It argues that the group's growth is driven by a combination of radical Wahhabist ideology, deep-seated ethnic tensions between the Mwani and Makonde groups, and systemic economic marginalisation linked to the extractive industries. The document further details how ASWJ leverages and profits from a thriving illicit economy involving drug, wildlife, and gemstone trafficking, often facilitated by corruption within the Mozambican political establishment. It concludes that heavy-handed military responses have alienated the population and recommends a holistic strategy focusing on inclusive governance, wealth distribution, and community dialogue.