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DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS FOR THE DRC TO 2050
The document describes governance in the DR Congo as being dominated by rent-seeking elites and systemic corruption, particularly within the extractive industries. It highlights the failure of decentralisation efforts, where the central government in Kinshasa maintains control by withholding funds from provinces. Despite recent commitments from the presidency to combat corruption through the creation of the Agence de prévention et de lutte contre la corruption (APLC), the report notes that the country remains an 'anocracy' with a significant gap between nominal electoral practices and substantive liberal democracy.
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Document type: Report
El retorno de Lula y la esperanza de la reconstrucción del ambiente democrático
The document traces the erosion of Brazilian democracy from the 2013 protests through the presidencies of Michel Temer and Jair Bolsonaro, highlighting the role of digital disinformation and institutional interference. It concludes that the 2023 return of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva requires a broad coalition and urgent public policies to combat manipulation and restore institutional normality.
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Document type: Research paper
Poland's High-Stakes Parliamentary Elections
The October 2023 Polish parliamentary elections represent a critical juncture for the country's democratic governance and its relationship with the European Union. The contest pits the ruling nationalist coalition, led by the Law and Justice (PiS) party, against a fragmented but numerically stronger 'democratic opposition' including the Civic Coalition, Poland 2050, the Left, and the Polish People's Party. While PiS and its partner United Poland oppose EU decarbonisation and the Green Deal, the opposition generally supports the green transition and Eurozone accession. A victory for the opposition would necessitate extensive reforms to restore the rule of law and depoliticise state institutions, while a PiS victory would likely continue the undermining of European constitutional values.
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Document type: Briefing
SONA Reflections
Good Governance Africa provides a critical reflection on the 2023 State of the Nation Address, praising investments in transportation and data costs but expressing concern over the energy crisis and local government failure. The organization highlights the severe economic impact of load shedding and criticizes the lack of a clear timeframe for the declared energy state of disaster. It further notes the absence of updates on the district development model and calls for a regulatory framework to manage municipal coalitions to reduce political instability.
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Document type: Statement
La solidarietà in tempo di crisi
The text examines the intersection of the cost-of-living crisis, energy insecurity, and climate change in Europe, arguing that these shocks reveal the failure of the current socioeconomic model. It suggests that Green parties must move beyond austerity or simple redistribution to advocate for public investments in the green transition, decentralized renewable energy cooperatives, and a Green New Deal to ensure social protections and ecological resilience.
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Document type: Statement
Nigeria 2023 Elections: Contenders, Campaigns and Change
The document examines the 2023 Nigerian elections, highlighting the role of ethno-regional configurations over ideology and the specific platforms of the APC, PDP, Labour Party, and NNPP. It assesses how different winners would impact domestic security, economic policy—specifically regarding oil and fuel subsidies—and Nigeria's energy relationship with Europe.
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Document type: Research paper
Visegrad beyond Orbán's orbit
The Visegrad Group (V4) is experiencing significant fragmentation due to diverging responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and differing relationships with the European Union. While Poland, Czechia, and Slovakia generally support Ukraine and NATO expansion, Hungary has obstructed sanctions against Russia and the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO. The once-strong alliance between Poland's PiS and Hungary's Fidesz was severely shaken by Orbán's ties to Putin, though a tactical reconciliation has emerged based on mutual dependence regarding EU rule-of-law procedures and shared populist narratives. Ultimately, the author argues that Orbán's veto power in the EU has reached its limits, leading him to seek alliances with American Republicans, European far-right fundamentalists, and China to maintain domestic legitimacy and enrich his clientelist network.
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Document type: Research paper
No Country for Young People
Young people in Italy face a structural crisis characterized by precarious employment, high poverty rates, and a lack of social housing, which prevents them from achieving independence. The document highlights that 11% of young people aged 18-34 lived in absolute poverty in 2021, and the average age for leaving the parental home is 29.9 years. This economic instability is compounded by a political class that the author argues ignores youth needs, leading to high electoral abstention and a vacuum filled by right-wing rhetoric. The resulting insecurity is linked to deteriorating mental health, including anxious-depression and social isolation.
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Document type: Report
Solidarity in an Age of Shocks
The text examines the intersection of the cost of living crisis, geopolitical shocks, and climate change in Europe, advocating for a 'social core' to the Green New Deal to ensure a just energy transition.
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Document type: Statement
Why were Italians swayed to the right by the Brothers of Italy?
The author argues that the Brothers of Italy (FdI) won the 2022 Italian elections not through ideology, but by promising security and a stronger state during a period of energy crisis and war. While the centre-right coalition shared a platform, FdI distinguished itself by prioritizing energy security, a presidential system, and cutting spending—including the abolition of green renovation grants—which aligned with voter priorities over climate action or immigration. Conversely, the centre-left failed by focusing on discrediting opponents rather than offering credible alternatives on economic intervention and social liberalism.
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Document type: Research paper
Ethiopia’s national dialogue
The report argues that Ethiopia's national dialogue initiative is hindered by a fundamental clash between a 'deliberative' approach favored by the government—which seeks a rational consensus to resolve differences—and the reality of a severely divided society characterized by deep-seated historical injustices. The author contends that the process will only succeed if stakeholders shift toward an 'agonistic' model that focuses on transforming antagonistic relations into adversarial politics and reckoning with the past, rather than attempting to manufacture a final consensus on fundamental national issues.
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Document type: Report
Angolas Wahlen 2022: Positiver Wandel oder mehr vom Gleichen?
The 2022 Angolan elections are characterized as a tight race between the ruling MPLA and UNITA, occurring against a backdrop of economic stagnation and public dissatisfaction. While the MPLA promises policy continuity, UNITA advocates for structural reforms and a transition of power. The analysis highlights significant concerns regarding the transparency of the electoral process, including partisan control of electoral institutions and flawed voter registration. Despite these challenges, the MPLA is expected to win due to its control of state resources, though the results may trigger protests. Internationally, Angola's role as an OPEC member and oil producer makes it a strategic energy alternative for Western markets amid the crisis caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
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Document type: Research paper
The Anatomy of Kenya’s 2022 Election
The 2022 Kenyan election occurs amidst severe economic instability driven by global food, energy, and climate crises, with cooking oil prices rising 47% and millions requiring food aid. The contest primarily features Raila Odinga and William Ruto, with the winner facing the urgent need to stabilize fuel and food prices without increasing national debt. While the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission has seen few reforms since 2017, there are signs of a peaceful democratic transition and increased female candidacy.
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Document type: Research paper
A la resistencia del pueblo hondureño
The report details a period of institutional violence in Honduras following the 2009 coup, characterized by the criminalization of environmental and land defenders, systemic gender-based violence, and the expansion of transnational corporate control over natural resources. It documents specific cases of human rights abuses, including the murders of Berta Cáceres and Keyla Martínez and the forced disappearance of Garífuna leaders. The text argues that the state acted as a facilitator for extractivist projects—such as hydroelectric dams and 'model cities' (ZEDEs)—often ignoring the right to free, prior, and informed consent. It concludes by welcoming the election of Xiomara Castro as a step toward democratic recovery and calls for continued international solidarity to support a feminist and just transition.
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Document type: Report
With the Honduran People and their Resistance
The document details a 12-year period of state-sponsored violence and corporate exploitation in Honduras after the 2009 coup. It focuses on the criminalization of environmental defenders, the disproportionate impact of femicide and patriarchal violence, and the role of transnational corporations in seizing indigenous lands for tourism and energy projects. It concludes by supporting the transition to the government of Xiomara Castro and advocating for continued international solidarity.
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Document type: Report
Free and fair? Angola’s uneven election playing field
The report examines the 2022 Angolan elections, highlighting a systemic bias toward the ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA). It identifies critical failures in electoral management, including the government's control of the voters' roll, the lack of independence in the National Electoral Commission and Constitutional Court, and the restriction of domestic and international observers. The document also notes a deteriorating socioeconomic environment marked by extreme poverty and inflation, which increases the risk of post-election instability.
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Document type: Report
Russia’s War in Ukraine Is a Stress Test of Norway’s Public Debate – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
The authors contend that Norway's public debate regarding the war in Ukraine has become overly emotional and ideologized, hindering the ability to discuss complex strategic dilemmas. They call for a more open discourse on NATO's role, the implications of NATO expansion into Finland and Sweden, the potential for EU membership, and the risks associated with food and energy price hikes.
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Document type: Statement
Udhëkryqet përpara nesh: neoimperializmi apo uniteti evropian?
The author contends that Vladimir Putin's 'neoimperializëm reaksionar' threatens the sovereignty of small and medium-sized European nations. To counter this, the text advocates for a unified Europe that ends its 'varësisë së saj nga karburantet fosile', strengthens democratic rule of law, and provides a collective alternative to authoritarianism.
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Document type: Statement
Serbian elections: can protests wave steer Serbia back towards democracy?
The author argues that Serbia has transitioned toward autocracy, a process accelerated by the state's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. The government is accused of using a state of emergency to bypass scientific advice, manipulate health data, and conduct an unofficial election campaign. This democratic decline is mirrored by deteriorating rule of law and media freedom. However, the document notes a rising wave of political mobilisation fueled by dissatisfaction with environmental degradation, specifically air pollution in Belgrade and proposed lithium mining by Rio Tinto in western Serbia.
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Document type: Research paper
The Unfinished Business of Building Bosnia-Herzegovina
The author contends that Bosnia-Herzegovina is facing a severe crisis of state stability, not due to dormant ethnic conflict, but because of a political elite that uses ethnic nationalism to maintain power and protect clientelist networks. The document highlights the destabilising actions of leaders like Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović, who use blocking tactics and threats of secession to extort the national government. It criticises the international community, specifically the EU and US, for a passive 'carrot and stick' approach and superficial negotiations that fail to deter unconstitutional politics, warning that the current trajectory could lead to the de facto secession of the Republika Srpska and the dissolution of the state.
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Document type: Research paper