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A research paper by CPI/PUC-Rio reveals that the public support for Brazilian rural credit between 2023 and 2025 averaged R$ 59.7 billion per year, nearly five times the commonly reported cost of R$ 12.5 billion for interest rate equalization. The study identifies four primary support mechanisms: economic subsidies, tax benefits (the largest component), public funding sources, and debt renegotiations. It highlights a lack of focalization, with only 31.9% of credit linked to social, environmental, or climate goals, and a significant transparency gap, as 65.2% of contracted volumes lack essential public monitoring data in the Sicor system.

The report introduces a qualitative framework for public finance providers—including donor governments, MDBs, and DFIs—to evaluate the quality of adaptation interventions. It categorizes quality across three levels: project (direct resilience), market (incentives and scale), and system (structural shifts). The tool uses a three-stage diagnostic (Initial, Progressing, Transformative) across criteria such as climate risk integration, target population reach, and the minimization of maladaptation. The report also includes data analyses showing a disconnect between national adaptation priorities and sectoral ODA flows, particularly in energy and health, and a misalignment between sovereign debt risk and the choice of finance instruments in moderate-risk countries.

The document examines how India is managing an energy price shock resulting from conflict in Iran. To control inflation, the Indian government has absorbed costs by cutting fuel excise duties and increasing fertilizer subsidies, costing an estimated 590 billion Indian rupees between March and May 2026. The brief warns that continued shock absorption may drain budgets for grid modernization and renewable energy, while passing costs to the public would disproportionately harm low-income households through indirect inflationary effects on food and transport.

Malawi is a low-income, landlocked country in Southern Africa facing severe economic and climatic vulnerabilities. Despite a stable democratic governance structure and the long-term 'Malawi Vision 2063' blueprint, the nation struggles with high poverty rates, a heavy reliance on agriculture, and significant fiscal deficits. Recent shocks, including El Niño-induced droughts in 2024 and the 2025 freezing of USAID funds, have exacerbated food insecurity and budgetary pressures.

The report argues that low-density urban sprawl is fiscally unsustainable for Canadian municipalities, contributing to a national infrastructure deficit of CAD 270 billion. Using Winnipeg as a primary case study, it demonstrates how the failure to account for long-term maintenance and carbon costs in development decisions creates a 'municipal Ponzi scheme' where new growth is used to mask the liabilities of old infrastructure. The author recommends reforming development cost charges, property taxes, and fiscal impact assessments to prioritize compact, complete communities that generate more revenue and produce fewer emissions.

The Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) calls for a radical shift in South Africa's fiscal policy for Budget 2026, arguing that current priorities of debt stabilization and primary surpluses fail to address mass unemployment and poverty. The briefing proposes a 'full employment agenda' driven by progressive taxation, the mobilization of public assets like the Government Employees Pension Fund (GEPF), and a significant increase in public investment in infrastructure and social services. Key recommendations include implementing a universal basic income grant, adopting a dual policy rate regime via the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to lower capital costs for development, and pursuing climate-responsive green industrialization. The IEJ warns that without such transformative changes, the economy will not absorb the growing labour force, leaving unemployment rates above 40%.

Indonesia's energy subsidies peaked at IDR 886.1 trillion in 2022 and remained high in 2024 at IDR 713.5 trillion, with fossil fuel support accounting for 88.9% of the total. The report highlights three dominant costs: electricity compensation for the state utility PLN, 3-kg LPG subsidies, and fuel compensation payments to Pertamina. These measures often benefit higher-income households and create a 'net negative carbon price' that offsets the national carbon pricing scheme. While electric vehicle (EV) incentives have surged since 2020, they remain negligible compared to fossil fuel support. The document recommends a phased reform plan to redirect spending toward renewable energy, targeted social protection, and induction cooking to reduce import dependency and emissions.

The report analyzes India's energy subsidy landscape in FY 2025 and FY 2026, highlighting a significant imbalance where fossil fuel subsidies are three times higher than clean energy subsidies. It details the fiscal strain on state governments due to rising electricity subsidies and the vulnerability of the national budget to global LPG and crude oil price volatility caused by conflict in the Gulf. The analysis argues for a strategic shift from recurring fossil fuel subsidies to one-time capital investments in renewable energy, electric cooking, and electric mobility to enhance energy security and fiscal sustainability.

The report inventories 130 support measures across six energy types in Indonesia: oil and gas, coal, electricity, renewable energy, biofuels, and electric vehicles (EVs). It details various mechanisms including direct financial transfers, tax exemptions, and price regulations. For the period FY 2021 to FY 2024, 27% of these measures were quantified using official government data, while 64% remained unquantified due to data limitations. The annex provides specific legislative references and nominal values in IDR and USD for each measure.

The report finds that while India has achieved a non-fossil electricity capacity share exceeding 50% in 2025, public finances remain heavily tied to fossil fuels. In FY 2024, fossil fuel revenues contributed nearly INR 9 lakh crore (USD 108 billion) to the exchequer, and 83% of central state-owned enterprise capital expenditures were directed toward fossils. Although clean energy subsidies grew by 31% year-on-year in FY 2024 and fossil fuel subsidies declined by 12%, the latter was attributed to cyclical price movements rather than structural policy. The study recommends improving the targeting of electricity subsidies, redirecting state-owned enterprise capital toward clean-tech, and diversifying government revenue through carbon pricing and green taxes.

The report finds that while India has achieved its non-fossil electricity capacity target of 50% by 2025, government support for fossil fuels remains five times larger than for clean energy. Total government support to energy in FY 2024 was at least INR 6.3 lakh crore (USD 75 billion), with a significant portion shifting from direct subsidies to investments by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and public financial institutions (PFIs). The analysis highlights a critical fiscal reliance on fossil fuel revenues, which account for 90% of energy revenues, and a growing burden of electricity subsidies for end consumers that constrains fiscal space for clean energy. The report recommends transitioning to targeted direct benefit transfers for electricity, phasing out fossil fuel production subsidies, and implementing a strategic roadmap for aligning public finance with net-zero goals by 2047.

The report inventories quantified energy subsidies in South Africa, detailing nominal and real values from FY 2018 to FY 2025. It identifies a wide range of support mechanisms, including VAT zero-rating for liquid fuels, Eskom bailouts, and carbon tax exemptions, while also listing specific incentives for renewable energy and energy storage. The document applies the World Trade Organization's definition of subsidies to categorize these financial contributions and provides a breakdown of government guarantees as contingent liabilities.

The document assesses the feasibility of using domestic fiscal tools—explicit fossil fuel subsidies (EFFS) and environmental taxes—to close Africa's climate finance gap, which is estimated at 5–10% of GDP. While these tools could contribute 1.7% and 1.1% of GDP respectively, the author argues they are insufficient to fully close the gap. The paper recommends establishing independent fuel reserve authorities to manage price volatility and suggests a gradual, long-term withdrawal of subsidies to avoid social unrest and inflation. It highlights that Africa's climate finance is heavily dependent on foreign sources and public funding compared to global averages.

The report details a downturn in Indonesia's coal sector, where a strategy of increasing production volumes to offset falling global prices is contributing to market oversupply. This trend, combined with rising operational costs from inflation and new biodiesel mandates (B40), has led to a decline in net income for producers. Consequently, state non-tax revenues and provincial fiscal transfers to coal-dependent regions like East Kalimantan and South Sumatra have dropped significantly since the 2022 price peak.

The report analyzes energy subsidies and revenues in Chhattisgarh between FY 2020 and 2024, finding that fossil fuel subsidies have doubled since 2020 and that 78% of energy-related revenues depend on fossil fuels. While the state government provides 98% of electricity subsidies, clean energy subsidies account for only 8% of total quantified subsidies. The document recommends establishing state-level net-zero targets, better targeting electricity subsidies, diversifying revenue beyond coal, oil, and gas, and creating social support mechanisms for coal-dependent workers.

The report argues that G20 countries have failed to meet their 2009 pledge to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, with spending reaching USD 665 billion in 2023. It introduces a categorization framework that divides subsidies into 'quick phase-out' (within 1 year), 'phase-out with a robust strategy' (2-4 years), and 'time-limited exemptions' (4+ years). Applying this to Brazil, Germany, Italy, Mexico, and South Africa, the authors find that while a significant number of measures (30-55%) can be removed quickly, the majority of fiscal value is tied to deeply embedded structural subsidies requiring sequenced reform and mitigation measures.

Malaysia faces significant fiscal and energy security risks due to its heavy reliance on oil and gas exports, particularly LNG shipments to Japan, South Korea, and China. The document highlights a growing crude oil trade deficit and the threat of stranded assets as global demand shifts. To mitigate these risks, the report recommends diversifying into green manufacturing, hydrogen, and carbon capture services, while establishing a Sustainable Energy Transition Fund and a Just Transition Commission to support displaced workers in resource-dependent regions like Sabah and Sarawak.

The report finds that Chhattisgarh remains deeply dependent on fossil fuels, with government subsidies for coal and oil and gas being four times higher than those for clean energy in FY 2024. While the state has a vision to reach 66% renewable energy by 2047, current public investment is dominated by thermal power expansion and electricity price supports. Energy revenues, which make up 22% of the state's total receipts, are primarily driven by oil and gas VAT and coal royalties, leaving the state vulnerable to the national energy transition.

The Netherlands is implementing a multi-level approach to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, focusing on international cooperation through the COFFIS coalition and EU-wide mechanisms like the EU ETS and CBAM. Nationally, the government uses an 'external costs approach' to identify price gaps, which amounted to a fossil subsidy of 18.0 billion euros in 2024. The plan includes raising energy taxes on natural gas through 2030, introducing a differentiated air passenger tax in 2027, and phasing out specific exemptions for greenhouse horticulture and coal use. However, several subsidies remain due to international treaties (e.g., the Energy Taxation Directive) or concerns over carbon leakage and social fairness.

The Netherlands is implementing a 'Whole of Government Approach' to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, focusing on international cooperation through the COFFIS coalition and EU-level mechanisms like the EU-ETS and CBAM. Nationally, the government uses an 'external costs approach' to identify pricing gaps, which amounted to a fossil subsidy of 18.0 billion euro in 2024. The plan details specific phase-out paths for various tax exemptions and subsidies, while identifying several others that remain unchanged due to international treaties or socio-economic considerations.