Os bilhões invisíveis do crédito rural: o custo da política pública é quase cinco vezes o subsídio de juros

A research paper by CPI/PUC-Rio reveals that the public support for Brazilian rural credit between 2023 and 2025 averaged R$ 59.7 billion per year, nearly five times the commonly reported cost of R$ 12.5 billion for interest rate equalization. The study identifies four primary support mechanisms: economic subsidies, tax benefits (the largest component), public funding sources, and debt renegotiations. It highlights a lack of focalization, with only 31.9% of credit linked to social, environmental, or climate goals, and a significant transparency gap, as 65.2% of contracted volumes lack essential public monitoring data in the Sicor system.

• The total measurable public support for rural credit between 2023 and 2025 averaged R$ 59.7 billion annually, which is nearly five times the R$ 12.5 billion usually reported as the cost of Treasury interest rate equalization.
• Tax benefits are the largest identified mechanism of public support, with an estimated annual revenue loss of R$ 26.2 billion, more than double the expenditure on interest rate equalization.
• Public funding sources, including Constitutional Financing Funds (FCFs), the Worker's Support Fund (FAT), and the National Treasury, contributed an average of R$ 20.2 billion per year to rural credit between 2023 and 2025.
• Debt renegotiations, including interest discounts and term extensions, cost an average of R$ 0.8 billion per year from 2023 to 2025, with a peak of R$ 1.3 billion in 2024 due to accumulated payments.
• Rural credit exhibits low focalization; only 31.9% of the volume contracted between 2023 and 2025 was associated with social, environmental, or climate objectives. When Pronamp is excluded, this figure drops to 17.6%.
• The RenovAgro program, the primary line for low-carbon sustainable practices, represented only 1.4% of total rural credit during the 2023-2025 period.
• There is a significant transparency gap in the Sicor system: 65.2% of the contracted volume (R$ 747 billion over three years) lacks public data on the borrower, municipality, and financed area.
• Regulatory asymmetries exist where socio-environmental safeguards, such as the prohibition of credit for projects involving native vegetation suppression, apply to controlled or directed resources but not to 'free resources' (recursos livres), despite both benefiting from public support.

APA

Climate Policy Initiative (2026). Os bilhões invisíveis do crédito rural: o custo da política pública é quase cinco vezes o subsídio de juros. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/pt-br/publication/os-bilhoes-invisiveis-do-credito-rural-o-custo-da-politica-publica-e-quase-cinco-vezes-o-subsidio-de-juros/

Chicago

Climate Policy Initiative. Os bilhões invisíveis do crédito rural: o custo da política pública é quase cinco vezes o subsídio de juros. 2026. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/pt-br/publication/os-bilhoes-invisiveis-do-credito-rural-o-custo-da-politica-publica-e-quase-cinco-vezes-o-subsidio-de-juros/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Policy Initiative |title=Os bilhões invisíveis do crédito rural: o custo da política pública é quase cinco vezes o subsídio de juros |date=15 July 2026 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/pt-br/publication/os-bilhoes-invisiveis-do-credito-rural-o-custo-da-politica-publica-e-quase-cinco-vezes-o-subsidio-de-juros/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatepolicyinitiative2026bilhes, author = {{Climate Policy Initiative}}, title = {{Os bilhões invisíveis do crédito rural: o custo da política pública é quase cinco vezes o subsídio de juros}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2026}, month = jul, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/pt-br/publication/os-bilhoes-invisiveis-do-credito-rural-o-custo-da-politica-publica-e-quase-cinco-vezes-o-subsidio-de-juros/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }