Os bilhões invisíveis do crédito rural: o custo da política pública é quase cinco vezes o subsídio de juros

This research paper by the Climate Policy Initiative/PUC-Rio analyzes the total public cost of rural credit in Brazil between 2023 and 2025. It argues that the actual cost to society is nearly five times higher than the typically reported interest rate subsidies, as it includes tax benefits, public funding sources, and debt renegotiations. The study highlights significant gaps in transparency, low focalization on social and environmental goals, and regulatory asymmetries between different funding sources.

• The total measurable public support for rural credit between 2023 and 2025 averaged R$ 59.7 billion per year, which is nearly five times the commonly reported cost of R$ 12.5 billion that only accounts for explicit Treasury interest rate subsidies.
• Tax benefits are the largest component of public support, with an estimated annual tax expenditure of R$ 26.2 billion. This is more than double the expenditure on interest rate equalization and stems from the zero IOF rate on rural credit operations and the zero IRPF rate on Agribusiness Credit Notes (LCAs).
• Public funding sources, including Constitutional Financing Funds (FCO, FNE, FNO), the Worker's Support Fund (FAT), and direct Treasury transfers, contributed an average of R$ 20.2 billion per year to rural credit between 2023 and 2025.
• Debt renegotiations, including discounts and term extensions, cost an average of R$ 0.8 billion per year between 2023 and 2025, totaling R$ 2.4 billion for the period.
• Rural credit exhibits low focalization on social, environmental, or climate goals; only 31.9% of the volume contracted between 2023 and 2025 was associated with such programs. When the Pronamp program for medium-sized producers is excluded, this figure drops to 17.6%.
• The RenovAgro program, the primary line for low-carbon sustainable practices, represented only 1.4% of total rural credit during the 2023-2025 period.
• There is a significant lack of transparency in rural credit data; only 34.8% of the volume contracted between 2023 and 2025 has essential public information available in the Sicor system, such as the borrower's identity, municipality, and financed area.
• Regulatory asymmetries exist where operations using controlled or directed resources face stricter socio-environmental restrictions (e.g., bans on native vegetation suppression) than operations using free resources, despite both benefiting from public support.
• The study's estimates are conservative as they exclude costs from insurance and guarantee programs (PSR and Proagro), R&D investments by Embrapa, the Kandir Law, and macroeconomic impacts.

APA

Climate Policy Initiative (2026). Os bilhões invisíveis do crédito rural: o custo da política pública é quase cinco vezes o subsídio de juros. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/pt-br/publication/os-bilhoes-invisiveis-do-credito-rural-o-custo-da-politica-publica-e-quase-cinco-vezes-o-subsidio-de-juros/

Chicago

Climate Policy Initiative. Os bilhões invisíveis do crédito rural: o custo da política pública é quase cinco vezes o subsídio de juros. 2026. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/pt-br/publication/os-bilhoes-invisiveis-do-credito-rural-o-custo-da-politica-publica-e-quase-cinco-vezes-o-subsidio-de-juros/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Policy Initiative |title=Os bilhões invisíveis do crédito rural: o custo da política pública é quase cinco vezes o subsídio de juros |date=15 July 2026 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/pt-br/publication/os-bilhoes-invisiveis-do-credito-rural-o-custo-da-politica-publica-e-quase-cinco-vezes-o-subsidio-de-juros/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatepolicyinitiative2026bilhes, author = {{Climate Policy Initiative}}, title = {{Os bilhões invisíveis do crédito rural: o custo da política pública é quase cinco vezes o subsídio de juros}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2026}, month = jul, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/pt-br/publication/os-bilhoes-invisiveis-do-credito-rural-o-custo-da-politica-publica-e-quase-cinco-vezes-o-subsidio-de-juros/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }