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The research examines the long-run dynamics of external costs associated with coal in the United Kingdom from 1700 to 2000. It finds that during the nineteenth century, the externalization of social costs rose significantly, peaking in 1891 when damages were estimated at £17.5 billion (2000 prices), or 17.3% of GDP. The author argues that this period represents a massive market failure where marginal social costs far outweighed marginal social benefits, and that government failure delayed optimal mitigation by fifty years. The paper uses this historical case to caution that current greenhouse gas emissions may follow a similar pattern of delayed government action and high social costs.

The paper introduces the Climate and Regional Economics of Development (CRED) model, highlighting its innovations in global equity, resource flow calculation, and the use of McKinsey marginal abatement cost curves for mitigation costs. The model indicates that scenarios prioritizing equity lead to superior climate outcomes, suggesting that the primary policy challenge is securing the commitment of high-income countries to both international equity and climate protection.

The report examines carbon leakage—the migration of emissions to regions with laxer carbon pricing—specifically focusing on the EU ETS Phase III. It criticizes the European Commission's broad identification of 164 sectors at risk, arguing that the criteria used were too simplistic and failed to account for the 2008 economic recession or the actual auctioning rates. The authors suggest that leakage risk is actually concentrated in a few sectors, including steel, cement, and aluminium, and recommend tailored policy responses such as border adjustments for cement and investment subsidies for aluminium, rather than a one-size-fits-all approach of free allowance allocation.

The document examines the steel sector's role in global emissions, focusing on abatement opportunities in China and India. It identifies four currently available abatement categories—closing inefficient plants, improving efficiency in existing plants, using best available technology (BAT) for new builds, and increasing scrap recycling—and notes that deep cuts will require carbon capture and storage (CCS) or breakthrough technologies after 2020. The report argues that carbon pricing alone is insufficient to overcome barriers like high capital costs and lack of policy, suggesting that Sectoral Approaches and Agreements should combine price and non-price incentives. Initial modelling suggests that with a carbon price of $25/tCO2, China could abate up to 150 MtCO2/year and India up to 40 MtCO2/year, potentially generating $2bn and $0.5bn in annual credits respectively.

The document examines how a hypothetical carbon price of 3000¥/t would affect Japanese industry, identifying 17 subsectors at risk. While findings align with similar studies in the UK, Germany, and USA, the Japanese pig iron subsector is noted as being disproportionately affected. However, the overall impact on the competitiveness of final products like flat steel is expected to be minimal compared to other trade influences.

The paper analyzes the technical and political requirements for linking cap-and-trade systems in North America, specifically focusing on the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. It argues that while linking reduces overall carbon costs and GDP impacts, it may not significantly mitigate production leakage. The authors identify critical design elements requiring harmonization—such as cap type, offset limits, and enforcement quality—and conclude that divergent national interests make a fully integrated system unlikely, with a minimal U.S.-Canada link and a more significant U.S.-Mexico link being the most probable outcome.

The report argues that China can achieve a deep carbon reduction by 2050 through sectoral transformations in electricity, industry, transport, and buildings, provided it receives international financial and technological support. It proposes a combination of domestic carbon taxes, a future cap-and-trade system, and a new 'Inter-country Joint Mitigation Plan' to facilitate technology transfer. The analysis emphasizes that a low-carbon transition is essential for China's modernization, offering opportunities to move up the value chain and improve energy security, though it will require active labour market policies to manage job losses in heavy industry.

The document presents a portfolio of 2008 research by Climate Strategies, focusing on the EU ETS, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and G8 climate opportunities. Key analyses include the risks of carbon leakage in industrial sectors, the underperformance of CDM projects in terms of certified emission reductions, and the economic rationale for transitioning from free allowance allocation to auctioning in the EU ETS. It also includes the Eliasch Review on financing global forests and a study on the development of mandatory emissions trading in Japan.

The report assesses the sustainability impacts of WTO agricultural trade liberalisation for wheat and edible oil crops across eight countries. It finds that net food-importing developing countries like Senegal and Egypt face significant risks to food security and economic stability due to rising import costs. Conversely, net exporting countries such as Australia, Argentina, and the US generally see economic gains, though these are often accompanied by environmental degradation—such as dry-land salinity in Australia and deforestation in Indonesia—and social tensions regarding land rights and the marginalisation of small-scale farmers. The study concludes that an 'intermediate' liberalisation scenario, which allows for more domestic support and gradual change, is generally more sustainable than full liberalisation.

The report identifies ground-level ozone, heat waves, and Lyme disease as significant health threats in Canada, with ozone-related societal costs potentially reaching $250 billion per year by the end of the century. It emphasizes that climate change will exacerbate existing health inequities driven by poverty and racism, and warns that current federal funding for health adaptation is inadequate, representing only about 0.3 per cent of total federal climate change program funding.

The report finds that while electrification will increase electricity use, total energy spending for Canadian households is expected to decline. However, the costs of expanding electricity infrastructure may fall regressively, disproportionately impacting lower-income households. The authors analyze rate-design changes and government funding mechanisms as tools to improve equity, concluding that means-tested fixed charges and progressive tax-based funding can insulate vulnerable populations from rising costs.

The report argues that Canada's cost-optimal path to net zero requires a significant shift from gas to electricity for building heat. It warns that continued expansion of gas networks and a 'business-as-usual' approach to utility regulation create financial risks for ratepayers and threaten climate goals. The authors recommend that provincial governments legislate net zero targets, end the default expansion of gas infrastructure, and provide clear energy roadmaps to guide regulators and utilities.

The report examines the uneven progress of carbon pricing in Asia, contrasting the advanced emissions trading systems (ETS) in Japan and South Korea with the early-stage designs in Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines. It argues that while the EU CBAM poses a financial risk to exporters—particularly in the steel sector—the overall impact is limited and can be mitigated by implementing effective domestic carbon pricing and transitioning to cleaner production technologies. The document provides specific fee estimates for each country and recommends phasing out carbon offsets, implementing absolute emission caps, and shifting toward the auctioning of allowances to drive genuine decarbonisation.

The report argues that African cities face a critical choice between unsustainable 'business-as-usual' urban sprawl and a '3CR' model (compact, connected, clean, and resilient). Using economic modelling for 35 major cities in Ethiopia, Kenya, and South Africa, it demonstrates that while incremental investments of US$280 billion are needed by 2050, the net present value of benefits is significantly positive. It identifies systemic barriers—including poor municipal creditworthiness and restrictive national laws—and proposes four national enabling mechanisms and six specific financial instruments to unlock private and public capital.

The document details the stakeholder engagement process and technical data used to develop a regional tool for integrated water and economic planning in the Berg WMA. It includes records of workshops and meetings with provincial government, local municipalities, and academic institutions. Technical appendices provide marginal values of water by crop, estimated irrigated agriculture water requirements, and forecasts for urban water demand for 2025 and 2040. The text also validates these bottom-up estimations against the WARMS database and Aurecon's Water Resources Simulation Model, while assessing the economic opportunity cost of potential supply deficits in terms of GVA and employment.

The document warns that increasing residential solar PV adoption in the Western Cape will likely lead to significant municipal revenue losses, as high-income consumers reduce their reliance on the grid. Using the International Futures (IFs) model, the authors project that under a 'Current Path' scenario, the province could lose nearly 11% of municipal revenue cumulatively by 2040. To counter this, the brief proposes a sequential policy approach: short-term investment in Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) to gather data, medium-term implementation of feed-in tariffs (FIT) and Time of Use (ToU) tariffs to reclaim revenue, and long-term strategic investment in a 'smart grid' and the local PV manufacturing industry. The 'Embrace and Enhance' scenario, which combines high levels of smart infrastructure investment with local manufacturing and ICT spillovers, is forecast to result in the lowest cumulative revenue losses, although it still does not fully offset the impact of decentralized energy production.

The report investigates the impact of a transition to a green hydrogen economy on TVET-level employment in South Africa, contrasting domestic development with international export opportunities. It identifies key sectors for skill development—including chemicals, electrical machinery, and PGM mining—and argues that while GHE jobs are expected to grow significantly after 2030, the TVET system must address structural gaps and develop specialized curricula in fuel cell and electrolyser manufacturing to support a just transition for workers in coal and refining.

The report argues that transitioning from national energy self-sufficiency to an integrated regional power system in Central Asia would enhance energy security, lower electricity production costs, and accelerate decarbonization. Modelling indicates that 'Unlimited transmission' could reduce electricity production emissions intensity by approximately 3% and save 1.4 billion USD in annual costs by 2050 compared to self-sufficiency. The document highlights the potential for Kazakhstan to become a hydrogen hub (primarily via 'blue' hydrogen) and for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to provide baseload hydropower. To achieve this, the report proposes a roadmap integrating technical, political, financial, and organizational considerations.

The analysis finds that pursuing a net zero emissions pathway by 2050 in Ethiopia would increase the average real annual GDP growth rate by 1.4 percent relative to a business-as-usual scenario. While the NZE pathway requires an additional US$66.98 billion in cumulative investment costs by 2050, it is projected to generate $111 billion in cumulative co-benefits through increased real GDP and avoid $89 billion in costs, primarily in energy. Social co-benefits include an average of 672,000 additional green jobs and significant increases in disposable incomes (10.5 percent by 2030 and 53.1 percent by 2050). The benefit-cost ratio for investments in mitigation and adaptation is estimated to rise from 1.04 in 2030 to 2.99 by 2050.