Sustainability Impact Assessment of WTO negotiations in the major food crops sector

The report assesses the sustainability impacts of WTO agricultural trade liberalisation for wheat and edible oil crops across eight countries. It finds that net food-importing developing countries like Senegal and Egypt face significant risks to food security and economic stability due to rising import costs. Conversely, net exporting countries such as Australia, Argentina, and the US generally see economic gains, though these are often accompanied by environmental degradation—such as dry-land salinity in Australia and deforestation in Indonesia—and social tensions regarding land rights and the marginalisation of small-scale farmers. The study concludes that an 'intermediate' liberalisation scenario, which allows for more domestic support and gradual change, is generally more sustainable than full liberalisation.

• Net food-importing developing countries, specifically Senegal and Egypt, are predicted to experience negative economic and social impacts due to increasing wheat import bills, which directly threaten food security for vulnerable groups such as rural women.
• In Indonesia, trade liberalisation in the palm oil sector is expected to drive economic growth but will likely aggravate unsustainable deforestation and increase social conflicts over land rights, particularly affecting indigenous forest-dwelling groups.
• Australia is expected to see positive economic welfare and producer gains from liberalisation, but faces long-term risks of negative social and environmental impacts linked to dry-land salinity and the need for major structural changes in land use.
• In the United States, liberalisation is predicted to benefit large commercial farm households, while intermediate-sized farm households may face adjustment problems and negative economic impacts due to a lack of competitiveness.
• The European Union is expected to achieve general welfare gains and reduced budgetary expenditures under liberalisation, but will see clear negative impacts on agricultural producers.
• Argentina is predicted to experience positive economic incentives and welfare gains as a natural exporter of wheat and oilseeds, though long-term environmental risks may arise from increased input use.
• Economic impacts for India are inconclusive and highly dependent on the country's future ability to meet domestic wheat demand, with a significant risk that liberalisation could further marginalise small-scale farmers and rural women.
• The 'intermediate scenario' is generally identified as more sustainable than full liberalisation because it allows for the retention of domestic support (green and blue boxes) and the implementation of flanking measures to mitigate social and environmental shocks.
• The study highlights a critical gap between macro-level economic modelling (CGE models) and micro-level sustainability analysis, noting that aggregated studies often lose critical site-specific information.

APA

Maltais, A., Nilsson, M., & Persson, Å. (2002). Sustainability Impact Assessment of WTO negotiations in the major food crops sector. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Policy-institutions/sustainability_impact_assessment_wto.pdf

Chicago

Maltais, Aaron, Måns Nilsson, and Åsa Persson. Sustainability Impact Assessment of WTO negotiations in the major food crops sector. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2002. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Policy-institutions/sustainability_impact_assessment_wto.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Maltais |first1=Aaron |last2=Nilsson |first2=Måns |last3=Persson |first3=Åsa |title=Sustainability Impact Assessment of WTO negotiations in the major food crops sector |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=May 2002 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Policy-institutions/sustainability_impact_assessment_wto.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{maltais2002sustainability, author = {Maltais, Aaron and Nilsson, Måns and Persson, Åsa}, title = {{Sustainability Impact Assessment of WTO negotiations in the major food crops sector}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2002}, month = may, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Policy-institutions/sustainability_impact_assessment_wto.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }