Search Climate Insights Directory

The study assesses the vulnerability of the Boyacá-Santander region to climate change, projecting temperature increases between 1.3°C and 2.4°C by 2040-2070. It identifies significant risks to surface and groundwater availability, particularly in the northeast, and uses econometric modeling to project negative impacts on agricultural production, municipal value added, and social indicators such as multidimensional poverty and education. The authors recommend diversifying climate finance, improving intersectoral coordination, and implementing specific hydrogeological interventions like artificial aquifer recharge in the Middle Magdalena Valley.

The study finds that unreliable power supply in Benin forces businesses to invest in defensive measures, with extra costs accounting for 44% of total electricity expenditures. These costs, primarily driven by power generator operations, push an additional 5% of businesses into a state of 'electricity burden' (spending >10% of revenue on power). The burden is most prevalent among informal businesses, home-based enterprises, and those in the production sector.

The study finds that excluding 'extra electricity costs'—expenses for voltage stabilizers, generators, and alternative energy sources—significantly understates energy poverty in Benin. While 51% of connected households are energy poor based on electricity bills alone, this figure rises to 72% when defensive expenditures are included. Power generator operation is the largest cost driver, accounting for 46% of total extra electricity costs. Key determinants of energy poverty include low household wealth, lack of tertiary education, and the use of electricity for economic activities.

The report analyzes the sources of development finance for low-income countries (LICs), identifying tax revenues as the primary source but highlighting systemic risks such as cuts to official development assistance (ODA), trade fragmentation, and an impending external debt crisis. It argues that while domestic resource mobilization (DRM) is essential, it must be balanced with 'external revenue mobilization' through export diversification to avoid balance of payments crises. The authors propose a pragmatic approach to the Financing for Development (FfD) agenda, recommending specific international reforms—such as separating poverty-reduction ODA from global public goods funding—and national reforms, including the removal of fossil fuel subsidies and the implementation of wealth and natural resource taxes.

The study finds that the ABC Recuperação credit line has had modest effects on pasture recovery in the Cerrado, with most severely degraded areas remaining unchanged. While some pasture was converted to crops, the program's contribution to the ABC Plan's 2020 target of recovering 15 million hectares of degraded pasture was estimated at only 0.9% to 2.5%. The report highlights that technical assistance is a critical factor for success and recommends improved monitoring and the integration of credit with risk management instruments.

The study finds that the ABC Recuperação credit line has had modest effects on pasture recovery, with most areas remaining unchanged and severely degraded pastures showing little improvement. While some pasture was converted to agriculture, the program's contribution to the Plano ABC goal of recovering 15 million hectares by 2020 was estimated at a maximum of 2.5%. Technical assistance was identified as a critical factor for success, particularly for severely degraded areas. The report also notes that some areas were deforested immediately prior to receiving credit, suggesting a need for better ex-ante monitoring and the integration of risk management tools.

The report examines the gap between soybean production distribution and rural insurance coverage in Brazil, highlighting how climate change—manifesting as severe droughts, hail, and frost—has led to unprecedented insurance claim payments. Using LASSO machine learning models, researchers found that while insurance data is insufficient to predict losses in the North and Northeast regions, agricultural yield data from PAM/IBGE can effectively identify climate variables (precipitation, fire risk, and wind) that correlate with losses. The authors recommend expanding insurance supply to vulnerable regions like MATOPIBA, utilizing production history for pricing in underserved areas, and strengthening the reinsurance market and public-private funds to ensure insurer liquidity.

The research employs a fixed-effects model to analyze how mining royalties (CFEM) correlate with socioeconomic indicators (health, education, employment, and income) and homicide rates in Pará. While simple correlations suggest royalties improve socioeconomic variables and increase violence, the application of municipality and year fixed effects removes the statistical significance of these correlations. However, the study finds a strong positive correlation between increased royalties and municipal spending, particularly in public sector salaries and pensions, and suggests that royalties may reduce municipal efforts to collect urban property tax (IPTU).

The study finds that consumers in Spain pay an 11% price premium for high energy-efficiency washing machines, an increase from 4.15% in 2012. Using a hedonic price model on 739 market observations, the authors identify that brand reputation, spin-drying performance, and built-in designs are also significant price drivers.

The study finds that BNDES credit for agricultural equipment increases land productivity and stimulates crop production without increasing deforestation. The effects are most pronounced in labor-intensive municipalities and when financing is directed toward labor-saving equipment, such as tractors and harvesters, which often leads to the replacement of pasture areas with more productive cropland.

The study finds that BNDES credit for agricultural machinery increases productivity and promotes the intensification of agriculture—specifically by replacing pasture with cropland—without increasing deforestation pressures. These effects are most pronounced in municipalities with high labor intensity and when financing 'labor-saving' equipment.

The report analyzes the relationship between transport infrastructure and employment in Brazil from 1990 to 2019. Using a 'market access' methodology, it finds that increased connectivity positively impacts employment, particularly in poorer and more isolated regions, thereby potentially reducing regional inequality. The study highlights that tradable sectors, such as agriculture and manufacturing, benefit most from these improvements.

The paper analyzes how international lending influences African countries' integration into global value chains. It finds that Chinese lending, which focuses heavily on transport and communication infrastructure, increases the overall intensity of GVC participation. In contrast, World Bank lending, which prioritizes social sectors like education and health, helps countries move toward higher value-added, upstream positions in production networks. The study emphasizes that reducing trade costs through infrastructure is key to initial GVC access, while human capital investments support economic upgrading.

The report finds that increased rural credit generally boosts agricultural production and productivity while reducing deforestation pressures, particularly in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. This occurs as credit enables producers to shift from extensive livestock ranching to more intensive crop cultivation. The analysis reveals that these positive land-use effects are most pronounced in the Amazon and Cerrado, while productivity gains are more significant in the Atlantic Forest, Pampas, and Caatinga. Additionally, the report notes that rural credit has a substantially higher positive impact on grain production compared to other crops.

The report analyzes how rural credit affects Brazilian agribusiness, finding that increased credit supply generally boosts agricultural production and productivity. In the Amazon and Cerrado biomes, credit specifically encourages the conversion of pasture to crop land, which reduces deforestation pressures and increases the area of native forests. The impact varies by biome and product, with grain production showing significantly larger increases in production and productivity compared to other crops.

The analysis finds that rural credit for small farmers increases productivity and reduces deforestation pressures, whereas credit for large producers is associated with increased land expansion and deforestation. The document recommends prioritizing credit distribution to small producers to align subsidies with forest conservation goals.

The analysis finds that rural credit for small farmers (specifically through PRONAF) increases crop and cattle productivity and reduces deforestation by converting pasture to cropland. Conversely, credit for large farmers and firms is associated with the expansion of both cropland and pasture, leading to higher deforestation. The document recommends that Brazilian policymakers prioritize small farmers in credit distribution to align subsidies with forest conservation goals.

The study finds that adaptation finance is not consistently aligned with the Paris Agreement's goal of prioritising the most vulnerable nations. For bilateral donors, the relationship between vulnerability and both the probability of selection and the amount of finance allocated is concave, meaning that while vulnerability increases funding up to a point, the most vulnerable countries actually receive smaller allocations than their less vulnerable counterparts. Multilateral donors are found to be even less responsive to recipient need, although they do prioritise members of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in the allocation stage and the most vulnerable states specifically when providing 'principal-classified' finance.

The document argues that rural credit is a central agricultural policy in Brazil that significantly boosts productivity and supports environmental conservation by shifting land use from pastures to croplands, thereby increasing forest areas. It highlights that a 1% increase in rural credit leads to measurable gains in municipal crop production, agricultural GDP, and cropland productivity. However, the brief notes that the current distribution system is complex and fragmented, creating inconsistencies in credit access. It recommends using rural credit to reconcile production and conservation goals and suggests that any policy reforms be introduced gradually to avoid disrupting agricultural output.

The report identifies three distinct patterns of agricultural technology adoption in Brazil from 2006 to 2017. The Direct Planting System (DPS) is converging, becoming more widespread across the country. Tractor use is diverging, with increased concentration in wealthier, urbanized regions of the South and Southeast. Fertilizer use has increased overall but lacks a clear spatial pattern, with growth scattered across diverse regions including the Cerrado and Caatinga.