O Impacto do Crédito do Programa ABC para a Recuperação de Pastagens: Evidências para o Cerrado

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-Rio) evaluates the effectiveness of the 'ABC Recuperação' credit line, a subsidized financing instrument designed to restore degraded pastures in Brazil. Focusing on the Cerrado biome for operations between 2016 and 2018, the study uses satellite imagery and econometric analysis to determine if the credit led to actual pasture recovery or land-use changes. The findings indicate that the credit's impact is modest, with little evidence of recovery in severely degraded areas and a tendency for the credit to facilitate the conversion of high-vigor pastures into agriculture rather than restoring low-vigor ones.

• The overall impact of the ABC Recuperação credit on pasture restoration is modest; approximately 72.5% of the analyzed areas remained unchanged four years after receiving the credit.
• The credit did not significantly improve the most severely degraded pastures (low vigor), but was associated with a reduction in total pasture area by an average of 3 percentage points, primarily affecting areas with lower signs of degradation.
• There is evidence that some pasture areas were converted to other economic uses, with an average increase of 1 percentage point in cropland and 1.1 percentage points in agriculture-livestock mosaics.
• Technical assistance is a critical factor for success; polygons with contracts that included technical assistance saw a significant reduction of 6 percentage points in degraded pasture area after four years, whereas those without the service saw almost no change in pasture vigor.
• The effectiveness of the credit varies by soil type, with stronger results in reducing degraded pastures in areas where Plintossolos are predominant, particularly in Mato Grosso, Tocantins, and Maranhão.
• Areas designated for pasture recovery investments showed a trend of deforestation for agricultural use in the six years prior to obtaining the credit, although this trend was interrupted after the credit was accessed.
• The ABC Recuperação credit contributed very little to the Plano ABC goal of recovering 15 million hectares of degraded pasture by 2020, with an estimated contribution of at most 2.5% of the goal when considering conversion to other uses.
• A significant portion of the declared areas for credit were not actually pastures at the time of the application, with more than one-quarter of the areas not corresponding to pastures.

APA

Oliveira, W., Souza, P., & Assunção, J. (2024). O Impacto do Crédito do Programa ABC para a Recuperação de Pastagens: Evidências para o Cerrado. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/O-Impacto-do-Credito-do-Programa-ABC-para-a-Recuperacao-de-Pastagens.pdf

Chicago

Oliveira, Wagner, Priscila Souza, and Juliano Assunção. O Impacto do Crédito do Programa ABC para a Recuperação de Pastagens: Evidências para o Cerrado. Climate Policy Initiative, 2024. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/O-Impacto-do-Credito-do-Programa-ABC-para-a-Recuperacao-de-Pastagens.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Oliveira |first1=Wagner |last2=Souza |first2=Priscila |last3=Assunção |first3=Juliano |title=O Impacto do Crédito do Programa ABC para a Recuperação de Pastagens: Evidências para o Cerrado |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=August 2024 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/O-Impacto-do-Credito-do-Programa-ABC-para-a-Recuperacao-de-Pastagens.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{oliveira2024impacto, author = {Oliveira, Wagner and Souza, Priscila and Assunção, Juliano}, title = {{O Impacto do Crédito do Programa ABC para a Recuperação de Pastagens: Evidências para o Cerrado}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2024}, month = aug, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/O-Impacto-do-Credito-do-Programa-ABC-para-a-Recuperacao-de-Pastagens.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }