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In 2025, African nations faced a fragmented global order characterized by US strategic retrenchment and intensifying competition over critical minerals. The year was marked by the first G20 summit on African soil in South Africa, which pushed for reforms in sovereign credit rating practices and international financial support. While some states like Nigeria and Kenya increased domestic resource mobilization to counter US aid cuts, others in the Horn of Africa became focal points for geopolitical rivalry involving Israel and Gulf Arab states. Additionally, the Lobito Corridor emerged as a key site for US and EU efforts to counter Chinese dominance in critical mineral supply chains, though this development is accompanied by governance risks in the DRC and Zambia.

Following COP30 in Belém, the adoption of the Belém Technology Implementation Programme (TIP), the extension of the Climate Technology Centre (CTC), and the development of the Just Transition Mechanism (JTM) create a critical window for African countries to reshape multilateral technology cooperation. The author argues that without scaled concessional finance and a shift away from loan-based instruments, these institutional changes risk reinforcing import dependence and debt distress. The document outlines a strategic roadmap for the African Group from 2026 to 2028, focusing on securing a suitable CTC host, influencing JTM operationalisation, and proposing specific technology-justice indicators to ensure that green innovation benefits African national innovation systems rather than remaining a donor-driven process.

In 2025, African states navigated a multipolar landscape marked by a transactional US approach under the second Trump administration, which led to aid cuts and a push for domestic resource mobilisation in countries like Nigeria and Kenya. The AU-EU partnership faced skepticism over the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), while South Africa's hosting of the G20 Summit resulted in the G20 Africa Engagement Framework and proposals to reform sovereign credit rating practices. Geopolitical competition intensified in the Horn of Africa, exacerbated by Israel's recognition of Somaliland, and along the Lobito Corridor, where the US and EU compete with China to secure critical mineral supply chains and midstream processing capacity.

The document highlights a significant shortfall in agricultural methane mitigation, noting that while the Global Methane Pledge aims for a 30% reduction by 2030, current NDCs and national plans may only achieve an 8% reduction. It argues that dietary shifts and sustainable farming are essential to avoid a 2°C warming impact driven by food consumption patterns.

The author contends that while national emission targets under the Paris Agreement are useful for policy, they are not tangible or easily understood by the general public. To make climate progress more visible and accountable, the Canadian Climate Institute will begin tracking specific technology adoption metrics, such as electric vehicle and heat pump sales, which provide a more concrete measure of the energy transition than megatonnes of carbon.

Reclaim Finance and co-signatories argue that TotalEnergies has failed to adequately address concerns regarding the Papua LNG project, citing lack of transparency in climate and human rights assessments, failures in obtaining Free, Prior and Informed Consent from Indigenous Peoples, and insufficient evaluation of biodiversity and cumulative impacts.

A coalition of NGOs, including Reclaim Finance, asserts that TotalEnergies' response to their complaint about the Papua LNG project is insufficient. They highlight critical gaps in transparency regarding climate risk assessments, human rights impacts, and biodiversity studies. The authors argue that the project risks emitting 220 million tonnes of CO2, threatening endangered species and indigenous rights, while failing to provide clear information to local communities or adhere to the Equator Principles and IFC standards.

An analysis of Texas oil and gas data reveals that methane waste is significantly underreported, with estimates suggesting actual losses are 3 to 4.5 times higher than official figures. The study finds that venting is the primary source of underreporting, particularly in low-production oil wells where economic incentives discourage gas capture. The report argues that current self-reporting systems are insufficient and recommends disaggregated reporting and more stringent regulations to reduce environmental harm and recover lost tax revenues.

Vietnam's solar power generation helps the country avoid approximately USD 594 million in fossil fuel import costs during the current energy price surge driven by the Iran war. While Vietnam leads Southeast Asia in solar and wind shares, it continues to prioritize coal and gas in its long-term power planning, increasing its vulnerability to global price shocks.

The research examines the 2012 Brazilian New Forest Code and the 2022 Chilean Water Code reform to demonstrate how economic elites intentionally design weak institutions. By analyzing legislative debates and elite interviews, the author argues that environmental degradation can result from regulations that are designed to be ineffective, even when fully enforced, regardless of whether the legislative environment is ideologically cohesive or fragmented.

The document argues that existing EU laws, including the Digital Services Act and the AI Act, are insufficient to address harmful online business models based on behavioural manipulation. It urges the European Commission to use the Digital Fairness Act to close legal gaps in horizontal consumer law, specifically targeting dark patterns, addictive design, and unfair personalisation, while strengthening enforcement through the Consumer Protection Cooperation Regulation.

The document analyzes greenwashing practices, specifically focusing on H&M's 'conscious' clothing line and the carbon offsetting strategies of companies like Apple and Shell, as well as the social impacts of the Trees for Global Benefit project in Uganda.

A conflict in the Middle East involving Israel, the US, and Iran has caused global fossil fuel supply disruptions, leading to a nearly 50% increase in European gas prices in early March 2026. The briefing highlights that the EU's fossil import bill rose by an estimated €2.5 billion in the first ten days of the crisis. It argues that countries with high gas reliance for electricity, such as Italy, are most exposed to price spikes, while those that have decoupled gas from electricity prices, like Spain, are more resilient. The author contends that electricity market reforms or removing carbon costs (EU-ETS) are less effective than investing in renewables and clean flexibility to ensure long-term energy security.

A conflict in the Middle East in March 2026 caused European gas prices to spike by nearly 50%, increasing the EU's fossil import bill by €2.5 billion in ten days. The report highlights that countries with lower gas reliance, such as Spain, are more insulated from electricity price hikes than gas-heavy markets like Italy. It argues against suspending carbon costs under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, noting that gas volatility has a far greater impact on bills than carbon pricing.

The Just Transition in the Food System network supports the SAHRC's inquiry into South Africa's food system but raises concerns regarding the absence of corporate testimony and the lack of provincial or local hearings to ensure the participation of those most affected by hunger.

Reclaim Finance calls on institutional investors in Europe and North America to hold asset managers accountable for climate risks, citing examples of mandate withdrawals and the need for concrete climate selection criteria to prevent global economic losses.

The document highlights a trend in 2025 where some European and North American asset owners began withdrawing mandates from asset managers like BlackRock and State Street due to inadequate climate strategies. It criticizes large asset managers for continuing massive investments in fossil fuel developers and calls for asset owners to implement clear climate selection criteria and escalation strategies to force a transition away from fossil fuels.

The research develops a new metric to quantify how climate extremes in exporting countries increase the vulnerability of importing nations, finding that for 10% of countries, exposure to foreign 'hot events' via staple crop imports could nearly triple between 2041 and 2060.

The Clean Air Task Force recommends a framework for the EU Methane Regulation based on three pillars: integrity, attribution, and reporting claims. It distinguishes between 'bundled attributes' (physically linked to fuel volumes) and 'unbundled attributes' (transferable independently), arguing that unbundled certificates must be restricted to the same basin of production to incentivize actual emissions reductions. To prevent double-counting, the paper calls for mass balance accounting, digital registries with unique IDs, and strict temporal alignment, requiring certificates to be issued within 12 months of report submission and linked to production from the reporting year or the one immediately preceding it.

The briefing argues that the meat and dairy industry exploits narratives of efficiency and food security to obstruct transformative changes to food systems and the adoption of sustainable diets. It notes that despite scientific consensus, only 4% of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) include quantified, time-bound agricultural methane reduction targets. The document specifically analyzes industry messaging from the World Meat Congress and COP30 to illustrate how these actors hinder the inclusion of food systems in official climate conference texts.