Transboundary effects of global crop trade

The research develops a new metric to quantify how climate extremes in exporting countries increase the vulnerability of importing nations, finding that for 10% of countries, exposure to foreign 'hot events' via staple crop imports could nearly triple between 2041 and 2060.

• The authors developed a new metric to quantify national exposure, defined as a trade-weighted fractional change in projected future climate extremes within a country's trade partners. This approach addresses the limitation of single-location analyses, which fail to capture how exposure aggregates through trade dependencies when multiple partners are affected by extreme events simultaneously.
• Projections for the mid-term period (2041–2060) indicate that 10% of countries will see their exposure to 'hot events' occurring abroad increase by nearly three times through the import of staple crops. Major global breadbaskets are identified as the primary sources of this imported exposure across hot, wet, and dry climate events.
• The research indicates that the export of exposure from major breadbasket countries may be twice as high even in the near-term period of 2021–2040.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2026). Transboundary effects of global crop trade. https://www.sei.org/publications/transboundary-effects-of-global-crop-trade/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Transboundary effects of global crop trade. 2026. https://www.sei.org/publications/transboundary-effects-of-global-crop-trade/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Transboundary effects of global crop trade |date=13 March 2026 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/transboundary-effects-of-global-crop-trade/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2026transboundary, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Transboundary effects of global crop trade}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/transboundary-effects-of-global-crop-trade/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }