Transboundary effects of global crop trade

This research paper introduces a metric to quantify how global crop trade networks transmit climate risks. It finds that by 2041–2060, 10% of countries will experience a nearly threefold increase in exposure to foreign 'hot events' via staple crop imports, with major breadbaskets serving as the primary sources of this risk.

• The authors developed a new metric to quantify country exposure, defined as a trade-weighted fractional change in projected future climate extremes within trade partner countries. This metric addresses a gap where single-location analyses fail to capture how exposure aggregates through trade dependencies when extreme events affect multiple partners simultaneously.
• In the mid-term period of 2041–2060, 10% of countries will see their exposure to hot events occurring abroad increase nearly three times through the import of staple crops. Major breadbaskets are identified as the top sources of this imported exposure across hot, wet, and dry events.
• In the near-term period of 2021–2040, the amount of exposure exported from major breadbasket countries may be twice as high as in later periods.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2026). Transboundary effects of global crop trade. https://www.sei.org/publications/transboundary-effects-of-global-crop-trade/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Transboundary effects of global crop trade. 2026. https://www.sei.org/publications/transboundary-effects-of-global-crop-trade/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Transboundary effects of global crop trade |date=13 March 2026 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/transboundary-effects-of-global-crop-trade/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2026transboundary, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Transboundary effects of global crop trade}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/transboundary-effects-of-global-crop-trade/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }