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The policy brief examines the shift in China's engagement with South Sudan from a primary focus on oil to a broader governance and developmental partnership. It highlights the 'so-called 8 billion dollar affair' as a point of mutual discontent caused by mismatched expectations and administrative capacities. The author notes that China is deepening its political ties through party-to-party relations between the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), as well as establishing new institutional mechanisms like a 'China desk' to facilitate infrastructure loans. The document concludes that China's increasing involvement in the governance of 'fragile states' like South Sudan is a significant trend for African governments to monitor.

The document examines the intersection of G-20 financial regulatory initiatives and African economic development. It identifies five key G-20 focus areas—financial stability, financial inclusion, local currency bond markets, agricultural finance, and trade finance—and assesses the mechanisms through which non-member African states can influence these global standards. While acknowledging that the G-20 recognizes the needs of developing countries, the author argues that African representation remains limited and that the adoption of international standards like Basel II/III must be sequenced to align with local developmental goals.

The report examines the critical role of mangrove ecosystems in Mozambique, highlighting their value in carbon sequestration, coastal protection, and supporting fisheries. It identifies significant threats from urban growth, aquaculture, and the extractive boom in oil, gas, and mining. The author argues that Mozambique's current governance is fragmented across multiple ministries, leading to weak enforcement of environmental laws. The document advocates for the use of ecosystem valuation, Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEAs), and 'Blue Carbon' financing to incentivize conservation and reconcile economic growth with ecological sustainability.

The paper examines the debate surrounding the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Amendment Bill of 2013, specifically the potential shift from a 'first-in, first-assessed' (FIFA) system to competitive bidding for mining rights. It outlines the advantages of auctions—such as rent maximisation and increased transparency—while warning of risks including high administrative burdens, delays in mine development, and the potential for corruption in weak institutional environments. Using examples from Afghanistan and Liberia, the authors argue that any such system must be clearly enshrined in law to limit ministerial discretion and should ideally be a mixed system based on the availability of geological data.

The document analyzes the decline of South Africa's mining sector, linking it to labour market inefficiency and a dysfunctional institutional framework. It argues that the current legal and political environment encourages a 'prisoners' dilemma' between mining houses and unions, where mutual defection (wildcat strikes) becomes the dominant strategy. The author suggests that democratizing labour relations through balloting and introducing credible third-party penalties for violence could transform this into an 'assurance game' that promotes long-term industry sustainability.

The document examines India's adoption of the G-20's 'green growth' framework, which posits that economic growth and environmental sustainability are compatible. While the Indian government integrates this into its Five-Year Plans through technocratic solutions like renewable energy missions and energy efficiency schemes, a counter-discourse argues that such growth continues to marginalize the poor and deplete natural capital. The author highlights a contradiction between India's G-20 alignment and its stance in multilateral climate forums, where it emphasizes historical responsibility and the need for financial support from developed nations.

The research paper evaluates Nandi Dlamini-Zuma's first year as Chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC). It credits her with improving the Commission's administrative efficiency, enhancing the AU's global diplomatic visibility, and initiating the 'Agenda 2063' framework. However, it highlights failures in managing conflicts in Mali and the Central African Republic, tensions arising from the appointment of South African diplomats to senior roles, and the ongoing challenge of the International Criminal Court's jurisdiction in Africa.

The research identifies non-tariff barriers (NTBs) as critical constraints to trade in the SADC region, often undermining the benefits of tariff liberalisation. Key barriers include cumbersome customs procedures, transit issues, and corruption, with agricultural products being disproportionately affected. The paper highlights the high cost of compliance for retailers like Shoprite and Woolworths and argues that SADC lacks a coordinated action plan similar to those in the EU or ASEAN. It recommends a 'vertical' approach to prioritising 'low hanging fruit' barriers and the adoption of a 'naming and shaming' mechanism to enforce reforms.

The document examines the political, economic, and scientific ties between Russia and South Africa, noting a significant imbalance where political coordination is strong but economic and civil society linkages remain underdeveloped. While bilateral trade grew from $138.1 million in 2002 to nearly $1 billion in 2012, the authors argue that the relationship is hindered by a lack of mutual knowledge and limited cultural exchange. Key areas of cooperation include mineral resources, nuclear energy, and aviation, culminating in the March 2013 Joint Declaration on the establishment of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.

The document analyzes the evolution of Russia-Angola relations from the Cold War era to 2013, noting a strong political and military bond that has not yet translated into significant bilateral trade. While state-owned enterprises like ALROSA and VTB have found success, Russian SMEs face high barriers to entry in Angola. The authors argue that both nations must institutionalize their cooperation and diversify economic ties beyond hydrocarbons to achieve a fully-fledged strategic partnership.

The document examines the oil industry in South Sudan following the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement and the country's 2011 independence. It argues that oil revenues have been mismanaged by political elites, leading to endemic corruption and a failure to provide basic services to a population where 90% earn less than a dollar a day. The paper details the economic crisis caused by the January 2012 oil production shutdown, the subsequent austerity measures, and the diplomatic pressure from the US and China that led to the resumption of oil flow in 2013.

The document examines the challenges of African regional economic integration, highlighting the failure of the EU-modeled Abuja Treaty due to political tensions and infrastructure deficits. It compares the 'traditional' donor approach—focused on institutional support and soft infrastructure—with the 'emerging' partners' project-based, resource-driven approach. The author argues that while emerging partners fill critical hard infrastructure gaps, their tied-aid models can limit local skill transfer. The paper concludes that Africa must define its own strategic development agenda to effectively leverage competition between these partners and avoid 'incentive wars'.

The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) argues that the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Amendment Bill 2013 requires greater transparency and less ministerial discretion to attract investment and ensure sustainable development. Drawing on Botswana's success, SAIIA recommends against replacing the 'first-in, first-assessed' licensing system with auctions without better geoscience data, suggests introducing 'retention licences' to secure tenure, and advises against the state acting as both regulator and operator through free carried interests. The submission highlights that Botswana's high ranking in the Fraser Institute Survey is due to institutional quality and predictable legislation, contrasting this with South Africa's regulatory uncertainty.

The document assesses the G-20's food security commitments from an African perspective, focusing on food-price volatility, agricultural productivity, and nutrition. While it finds broad alignment in rhetoric and focus areas, it argues that the G-20 fails to implement critical regulatory reforms in financial markets and trade that would meaningfully benefit Africa.

The G-20 has progressively prioritised global food security since 2009, focusing on price volatility, agricultural productivity, and humanitarian tools. However, the document argues that these efforts have had few measurable effects in Africa due to a lack of implementation of regulatory reforms and insufficient investment. It specifically highlights the negative impact of market-distorting biofuel policies and agricultural protectionism in developed countries, which undermine food security for smallholders in the developing world. The author recommends that South Africa use its G-20 membership to push for the regulation of commodity speculation, the elimination of agricultural subsidies, and increased funding for African agriculture.

The document argues that while climate change is unlikely to be the sole direct cause of conflict, it acts as a 'threat multiplier' that intersects with poor political governance and socio-economic vulnerabilities to increase the risk of violence. In the Zambezi basin, this manifests as competition over dwindling water and food supplies, migration-induced tensions, and the manipulation of resource scarcity by political elites. Case studies of Bulawayo and Chinde highlight how chronic water shortages, flooding, and political marginalisation create flashpoints for unrest. The author emphasizes that strengthening Local Adaptive Capacity (LAC) and community resilience through grassroots organisations and traditional governance can mitigate these risks.

The document examines Russia's strategic return to Africa after a period of decline in the 1990s. It details the transition from Soviet-era ideological support to a modern, pragmatic approach focused on natural resources, arms trade, and diplomatic influence. The analysis highlights the role of the BRICS framework, particularly South Africa's membership, as a catalyst for renewed engagement. While Russia has established diplomatic ties with all African nations and increased investments in mining and energy, the paper notes a gap between high-level agreements and practical implementation, as well as a continued disparity in attention between North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa.

The policy brief highlights that mangroves are among the world's most threatened vegetation types, with over 20% lost in the last 30 years. It emphasizes that in Africa, mangroves often overlap with fossil fuel deposits and infrastructure projects, leading to degradation. The author advocates for the use of ecosystem valuations, integrated coastal zone management, and the inclusion of local communities in decision-making to reconcile economic growth with biodiversity conservation. Proposed interventions include the adoption of 'no net loss' policies, the use of Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEAs), and the implementation of Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) and Blue Carbon trading to provide financial incentives for conservation.

One year after the death of Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia's foreign policy remains focused on domestic stability and regional security, particularly in the Horn of Africa. While the country has seen significant economic growth and maintains a strategic alliance with the US to combat terrorism, its diplomatic effectiveness is hindered by a gap between its stated commitment to democracy and its domestic political reality. The author argues that embracing genuine democratic reforms would improve Ethiopia's international prestige and its ability to act as a regional broker for peace and stability.

The author contends that South Africa functions as a 'limited access order' where political and economic power is concentrated within a ruling coalition that uses patronage and exclusion to maintain control. In the mining sector, this manifests as violent conflict between the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) and the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU), as both compete for the 'rents' associated with official union recognition. The document suggests that transitioning to an 'open access order' requires elites to commit to the rule of law, depersonalize government institutions by ending cadre deployment, and ensure the state maintains legitimate, non-factional control over the police and military.