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The document examines the 'new geopolitics' of mineral supply chains, driven by the energy transition and geopolitical instability. It highlights the increasing demand for critical minerals—which the IEA expects to quadruple by 2040—and the resulting shift by industrialised states, such as the EU, to reduce dependencies on single sources like China. Given that significant deposits of these 'green' minerals are located in Africa, the text explores how African economies can leverage this shift to maximise their own benefits as the world moves away from fossil fuels.

The document analyzes the transition of Chinese infrastructure finance in Africa from large-scale, policy-bank-funded loans to a more cautious approach. It identifies three primary trends: the diversification of lending partners and contractors, a strategic shift toward 'small is beautiful' projects with shorter repayment windows, and the adoption of new funding models like Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) and Integrated Investment, Construction and Operation (IICO) to reduce sovereign debt burdens.

The document evaluates the state of governance in Africa using indices such as the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) and the Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG). It finds that while some progress has been made in 'voice and accountability', overall governance trends have remained static or declined since 1996. The analysis suggests that while APRM members are statistically more likely to show governance improvement than non-members, the number of reviews undergone does not definitively correlate with better scores. The author argues that both the APRM and the AGR suffer from a lack of implementation of their recommendations and that the AGR risks duplicating the APRM's efforts.

The document examines the intersection of gender and climate change, highlighting how gender inequalities shape the differentiated impacts of climatic shocks. It argues that current climate finance is largely 'gender neutral' and fails to integrate gender-responsive strategies due to a lack of understanding of the gender-climate nexus and flawed operational frameworks. The brief specifically calls on public development banks (PDBs) to move beyond 'business as usual' by implementing transformational gender mainstreaming—which addresses root causes of inequality rather than just symptoms—to enhance the effectiveness and sustainability of climate mitigation and adaptation investments.

The document examines the tension between enhancing intra-African trade through the AfCFTA and the necessity of maintaining strict non-proliferation controls under UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1540. It argues that while the AfCFTA aims to create a single African market to drive socio-economic integration, these trade benefits must not be compromised by the risk of non-State actors acquiring chemical, biological, or nuclear (CBN) weapons. The brief focuses on ensuring that export and border controls required by UNSCR 1540 act as enablers of secure trade rather than barriers, specifically analyzing the AfCFTA's security exceptions to increase cohesion between trade liberalization and global security obligations.

The document analyzes the transition from the 'Angola model'—characterized by infrastructure-for-resources swaps—to a 'Hunan model' centered on the Hunan province's comparative advantages. This new approach focuses on agricultural technology, construction machinery, and digital trade to foster a more diversified economic relationship between China and Africa, implemented through national platforms like the China–Africa Economic and Trade Exhibition (CAETE) and the China–Africa Economic and Trade Deep Cooperation Zone.

The document analyzes the historical 'lock-in' of SADC's infrastructure, which has been driven by colonial mercantile systems and extractive economic imperatives. It contends that current infrastructure is elitist and ecologically unsustainable, failing to meet the needs of the region's growing population. To counter this, the authors propose a 'regenerative' approach based on circular economies and human wellbeing. The paper presents three visionary scenarios—one driven by political response to climate migration, one by bottom-up civic innovation, and one by ESG-led market incentives—to illustrate potential pathways toward sustainable development. It concludes with recommendations for policy reform, including the creation of a Green Infrastructure Task Team and the adoption of community-based public-private partnerships (C-PPPs).

The policy brief identifies three primary drivers of food insecurity in Africa: limits to agricultural land, limits to agricultural productivity, and climate change effects. It highlights a steady decline in arable land per capita from 0.31 in 1990 to 0.2 in 2020, alongside severe productivity gaps where African farmers use only 8kg of fertiliser per hectare compared to 140kg in Asia and Latin America. The document calls on the G20 to provide financial and technical support for soil mapping, small-scale irrigation, the Africa Fertilizer Financing Mechanism, and the commercialisation of quality seeds to help the continent meet UN Sustainable Development Goals and AU Agenda 2063 targets.

The document explores the tension between the global push for a green energy transition and the desire of many African countries to develop natural gas resources to improve energy access, generate revenue, and facilitate a just transition.

The document argues that coastal and island countries in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) are highly vulnerable to climate risks like cyclones and sea-level rise, necessitating the use of ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA). While some progress exists, implementation is hindered by siloed governance, lack of capacity at local government levels, and insufficient finance. The brief recommends integrating specific EbA targets into 2025 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), aligning biodiversity and ocean policies, and utilizing a newly established regional community of practice to share best practices and mobilize resources.

The document traces the transition from the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), founded in 1963, to the African Union (AU), launched in 2002. It highlights the historical tension between gradualist and radical approaches to African unity, exemplified by the Monrovia and Casablanca Blocs. While the AU has introduced significant institutions and the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), the author argues that a pattern of policy non-implementation persists, leaving visions like Agenda 2063 largely aspirational.

The document examines the risks posed to Africa by the intensifying geopolitical rivalry between the US and China, particularly in the realms of technology, trade, and global supply chains. It argues that Africa is institutionally underprepared for these tensions due to governance deficiencies and its marginal global position, while emphasizing the need for African countries to project agency to secure optimal outcomes amidst a shifting global power structure.

The document advocates for the adoption of ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) to protect coastal communities in Southern Africa from climate risks such as cyclones and sea-level rise. It identifies key barriers to implementation, including policy silos, insufficient funding, and lack of community inclusion, and proposes the creation of a regional community of practice to share best practices among SADC member states.

The document argues that coastal and island nations in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) are highly vulnerable to climate risks, such as cyclones and sea-level rise, and should adopt ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) as a cost-effective alternative to traditional engineering. While some progress exists, implementation is hindered by fragmented governance, lack of technical capacity, insufficient funding, and the exclusion of local communities. The brief recommends integrating specific EbA targets into 2025 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), aligning cross-sectoral policies, and utilizing a newly established regional community of practice to share best practices and coordinate a regional EbA strategy.

The document examines the intersection of gender and climate finance, highlighting how gender inequalities shape the differentiated impacts of climate change. It argues that while international frameworks like the UNFCCC have increasingly acknowledged gender, climate finance remains largely 'gender neutral' and lacks enforcement mechanisms. The brief identifies significant barriers to gender mainstreaming, including a lack of technical capacity and a tendency to conflate 'gender' with 'women's issues'. It positions public development banks (PDBs) as critical agents for change, recommending they move beyond symptomatic treatments of inequality toward a gender-transformative approach that addresses root causes and power imbalances.

The document evaluates the impact of AU governance tools, finding that while APRM members are statistically more likely to show governance improvements than non-members, neither the APRM nor the AGR has fundamentally reversed a general trend of stagnation or decline in African governance since 1996. It highlights a lack of resilience in governance scores following shocks and argues that the focus of these mechanisms must shift from providing recommendations to ensuring their implementation.

The document identifies a sharp decline in Chinese infrastructure lending to Africa since 2016, driven by debt sustainability concerns, China's domestic economic contraction, and global shocks. In response, three trends have emerged: a diversification of lenders and partners, a shift toward 'small is beautiful' projects with smaller loans and shorter repayment windows, and the adoption of new funding models like build-operate-transfer (BOT) and integrated investment, construction and operation (IICO) to reduce sovereign debt loads.

The document examines Long-Term Strategies (LTSs) as economy-wide planning instruments mandated by the Paris Agreement to guide countries toward net-zero emissions by mid-century. It highlights that while LTSs provide a vital link between short-term Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and long-term goals, global adoption is currently insufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C. For African nations, the author argues that LTSs must balance mitigation with adaptation and socio-economic development. The briefing outlines best practices for LTS development, including policy coherence, stakeholder engagement, high-level political leadership, and the use of strategic foresight tools, while citing specific examples from countries like South Africa, Nigeria, and Ethiopia.

The document critiques current green industrialisation (GI) strategies in the SADC region for remaining tethered to linear economic growth models and 'greenwashing'. It proposes a 'regenerative' alternative based on principles of holism, biomimicry, and African indigenous philosophies like Ubuntu and Ukama. Through scenario analysis, the authors present three possible futures: a business-as-usual scenario (Scenario A), a dystopian 'Apocalyptic Africa' (Scenario B) marked by extreme climate disasters and resource wars, and a 'Regenerative Revival' (Scenario C). The brief concludes that SADC must move beyond surface-level policy changes to shift deeper mental models and paradigms, recommending the use of strategic foresight, the empowerment of youth, and a 'bottom-in' approach to reach marginalised populations.

The document assesses the state of marine and coastal ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) in Southern Africa, finding that while there is growing political commitment and various local success stories, marine concerns are frequently overshadowed by terrestrial issues in national climate policies. It identifies significant hurdles to implementation, including capacity gaps, siloed government coordination, insufficient financing, and unequal resource rights. The author recommends establishing enabling bodies to support NDCs, adopting a 'seascape' approach to integrate land-sea interfaces, and scaling innovative financing like blue carbon and debt-for-nature swaps.