Africa’s Governance Trajectory: Are AU Mechanisms Working?

The document evaluates the impact of AU governance tools, finding that while APRM members are statistically more likely to show governance improvements than non-members, neither the APRM nor the AGR has fundamentally reversed a general trend of stagnation or decline in African governance since 1996. It highlights a lack of resilience in governance scores following shocks and argues that the focus of these mechanisms must shift from providing recommendations to ensuring their implementation.

• Since 1996, average estimated scores for most World Governance Indicators (WGI) dimensions in Africa have trended negatively, with the exception of 'voice and accountability', which saw a slight 0.08-point increase.
• Governance progress in Africa has been mixed and lacks resilience; while some indices show slight upward trends, the 2022 Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) indicates no progress in overall governance since 2019, and many countries struggle to regain points after governance shocks.
• APRM membership is positively correlated with governance improvement, as members have a 33.33% chance of 'increasing improvement' in their 10-year trend classification compared to only 8.3% for non-members.
• The number or type of APRM reviews undergone by a member state does not appear to definitively improve governance outcomes; for instance, members who have not undergone any review had a 53.3% chance of 'increasing improvement', while those with at least one review averaged 17%.
• The Africa Governance Report (AGR), introduced in 2017, risks duplicating the efforts of the APRM by focusing on assessments of member states without significantly increasing the effectiveness or autonomy of the APRM.
• Despite an investment of $48.8 million in the APRM between 2003 and 2018, the mechanism's impact has been limited because recommendations are often ignored and not routinely implemented.

APA

RUBIDGE, L. (2023). Africa’s Governance Trajectory: Are AU Mechanisms Working? South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/SAIIA_PB_272_AfricaGovernanceTrajectory.pdf

Chicago

RUBIDGE, LAURA. Africa’s Governance Trajectory: Are AU Mechanisms Working? South African Institute of International Affairs, 2023. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/SAIIA_PB_272_AfricaGovernanceTrajectory.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=RUBIDGE |first1=LAURA |title=Africa’s Governance Trajectory: Are AU Mechanisms Working? |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=June 2023 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/SAIIA_PB_272_AfricaGovernanceTrajectory.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rubidge2023africas, author = {RUBIDGE, LAURA}, title = {{Africa’s Governance Trajectory: Are AU Mechanisms Working?}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2023}, month = jun, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/SAIIA_PB_272_AfricaGovernanceTrajectory.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }