Societal Transformation Through Long-term Decarbonisation and Climate-Resilience Planning

The document examines Long-Term Strategies (LTSs) as economy-wide planning instruments mandated by the Paris Agreement to guide countries toward net-zero emissions by mid-century. It highlights that while LTSs provide a vital link between short-term Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and long-term goals, global adoption is currently insufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C. For African nations, the author argues that LTSs must balance mitigation with adaptation and socio-economic development. The briefing outlines best practices for LTS development, including policy coherence, stakeholder engagement, high-level political leadership, and the use of strategic foresight tools, while citing specific examples from countries like South Africa, Nigeria, and Ethiopia.

• Long-Term Strategies (LTSs) serve as aspirational, country-wide visions for low emission and climate resilient development to 2050, acting as a catalyst for change and providing the long-term goals that Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) help achieve.
• As of February 2023, the global submission of LTSs to the UNFCCC remains low, with only 58 of 197 Parties having submitted them; among these, only seven were African countries: Benin, Gambia, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe.
• Current global net-zero commitments are insufficient to maintain the 1.5°C temperature goal. The IMF suggests a 25–50% emissions reduction is needed by 2030 for 2050 carbon neutrality, but current commitments may only achieve an 11% reduction.
• For African countries, LTSs must move beyond simple quantitative mitigation targets to integrate adaptation components, resilience building, and pragmatic socio-economic priorities to avoid maladaptation and reduce poverty.
• Effective LTS implementation requires high-level political leadership to ensure institutional buy-in and stability across administrations. For example, South Africa's LTS utilizes a 'peak, plateau and decline' trajectory for GHG emissions, with a peak expected between 2020 and 2025.
• A 'whole of society approach' to long-term planning necessitates robust institutional architecture and inclusive stakeholder engagement to ensure a just transition. South Africa established the Presidential Climate Commission as an independent, multi-stakeholder body to oversee this process.
• Data scarcity is a significant barrier in many African countries regarding GHG emissions profiles and vulnerability identification. To address this, Ethiopia created a specialised unit to improve climate research capacity for policymaking.

APA

Chevallier, R., & Sack, H. (2023). Societal Transformation Through Long-term Decarbonisation and Climate-Resilience Planning. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/SAIIA_PI_144_SocietalTransformation.pdf

Chicago

Chevallier, Romy, and Hannah Sack. Societal Transformation Through Long-term Decarbonisation and Climate-Resilience Planning. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2023. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/SAIIA_PI_144_SocietalTransformation.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Chevallier |first1=Romy |last2=Sack |first2=Hannah |title=Societal Transformation Through Long-term Decarbonisation and Climate-Resilience Planning |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=June 2023 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/SAIIA_PI_144_SocietalTransformation.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{chevallier2023societal, author = {Chevallier, Romy and Sack, Hannah}, title = {{Societal Transformation Through Long-term Decarbonisation and Climate-Resilience Planning}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2023}, month = jun, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/SAIIA_PI_144_SocietalTransformation.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }